The statistical caliber of social financing scale announced by the central bank has been adjusted for the second time in three months. On October 17, the central bank released financial statistics and social financing statistics for the first three quarters, and included local government special bonds in the statistical caliber of social financing scale. However, although local special bonds were included in the statistical caliber of social financing, the scale of social financing in September directly increased by 2.21 trillion yuan year-on-year. However, excluding the more than 700 billion yuan of local special bonds issued that month, the scale of social financing under the old statistical caliber It was lower than market expectations, and the trend of narrowing social financing growth has not changed, hitting a record low again.
Why are local special bonds included in social finance statistics?
Local government special bonds refer to local government bonds issued by local governments for public welfare projects with a certain amount of income and agreed to correspond to public welfare projects within a certain period of time. Government funds or government bonds with special revenue to repay principal and interest.
This is the second time in three months that the central bank has adjusted the scope of social financing. Previously, in order to improve the statistical method of social financing scale, the central bank has changed the definition of "asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions" and "asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions" since July 2018. "Loan write-off" is included in the statistics of social financing scale and reflected under "other financing".
As for why local special bonds are included in the statistical caliber of social financing this time, in addition to what the central bank said has obvious succession effects on bank loans, corporate bonds, etc., it also explains the boundaries between finance and currency. It may be getting blurry.
Ming Ming, deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute, said that the social financing indicator was launched that year to solve the problem of deficiencies in monetary statistics. It mainly analyzes the assets side of the bank. If the assets and liabilities are Strictly corresponding, then social financing can become a monetary policy goal that replaces money supply.
"Therefore, there is a question, what kind of assets can be included in the statistical caliber of social finance, and can government bonds be included?" Mingming said that this issue has always been controversial, but the reason why it has not been included before There are two main reasons for including this part: first, the funds used by banks to purchase government bonds do not directly enter the real economy; second, there are boundary issues between monetary policy and fiscal policy.
Mingming further explained that according to relevant legal provisions, the central bank cannot directly provide financing to the government, so the amount of fiscal financing should not be the goal of monetary policy. "To put it simply, the boundaries between fiscal and monetary terms may become increasingly blurred in the future, which will have a profound impact on the domestic economic cycle and asset prices."
A central bank insider commented on securities A reporter from the Times revealed that although the central bank’s previously announced social financing statistics did not include local debt, there are already internal statistics on “social financing and local debt” to analyze relevant changes in the money supply, which is also the general trend.
However, many people have pointed out that there are also shortcomings in including local debt into the statistical caliber of social financing. A monetary policy analyst in Beijing told a Securities Times reporter that although in terms of the use of bank funds, there is little difference between investing in local special bonds and corporate bonds and loans. They are all bank asset allocations, but other types of investments are made by companies or individuals. That’s social integration. In contrast, raising funds from local governments is only the first step. Only after these funds are given to enterprises through fiscal allocations can they be counted in social financing statistics.
Caliber adjustment cannot conceal the narrowing trend of social financing growth
The scale of social financing increased significantly by 2.21 trillion yuan year-on-year in September, including the 738.9 billion yuan of local special projects issued that month debt, but the trend of narrowing social financing growth has not changed.
Li Chao, chief macro researcher at Huatai Securities, also believes that according to rough calculations, under the old statistical caliber, the new social financing in September was only about 1.5 trillion, and the growth rate of social financing is likely to fall below 10, continuing to hit a new high. All time low. The lower-than-expected increase in social financing under the old caliber was mainly due to the decline in on-balance sheet credit expansion and the reduction in bond financing in September.
Zhang Wenhong, deputy director of the Survey and Statistics Department of the Central Bank, said that from a structural point of view, the changes in social financing in the first three quarters showed the characteristics of "two more and one less": the two excesses are reflected in the larger year-on-year increase in loans and the larger increase in bond financing. There was a significant increase, mainly due to a decrease in off-balance sheet financing.
Among them, the significant increase in bond financing is mainly reflected in three aspects: First, corporate bond financing increased significantly year-on-year. In the first three quarters, corporate bond net financing was 1.59 trillion yuan, 1.41 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Trillion yuan. Second, asset-backed securities increased significantly. In the first three quarters, asset-backed securities of depository financial institutions increased by 309.3 billion yuan, an increase of 290.1 ??billion yuan over the same period last year. Third, local government special bond financing increased. In the first three quarters, the net financing of local government special bonds was 1.7 trillion yuan, 143.8 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
On-balance sheet loans are still the mainstay of social financing. New loans in September were 1.38 trillion yuan. From a structural point of view, short-term loans increased significantly in both the residential and corporate sectors. New short-term loans increased by 423.2 billion yuan that month, an increase of 338.2 billion yuan from the previous month. Among them, in the corporate sector, bill financing shrank, with an increase of only 174.283 billion yuan that month, a sharp drop of more than 230 billion yuan from the previous month. Medium and long-term loans increased by 380 billion yuan, only an increase of 40 billion yuan from the previous month, still the second lowest in the year.
Cai Hao, director of the Macroeconomic Research Center of Hengfeng Bank Research Institute, believes that overall, the credit structure has not improved significantly. Although bill financing has dropped significantly, short-term corporate loans have rebounded significantly, which represents the production vitality of enterprises. Medium and long-term loans are still not optimistic. This reflects that in the expected economic downturn environment, banking financial institutions have lower risk appetite and are still cautious about credit extension.
Mingming also believes that under the background of regulatory guidance to support the financing of small and micro enterprises, corporate loans have increased overall, but short-term loans have increased significantly, and the growth of medium and long-term loans is still limited, reflecting that corporate financing is mainly to cope with short-term liquidity needs, long-term financing needs are still weak.
“Although the central bank has made several targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts in recent years, banks are generally subject to insufficient risk capital due to constraints such as capital adequacy ratios, and are unable to support credit easing. Under the pressure of economic downward pressure With no obvious relief and the credit environment is still tight, more policy combinations can still be expected, such as strengthening the credit-friendly orientation by optimizing the occupation of risk capital," Cai Hao said.
(Source of article: Securities Times)