The antique furniture market will enter a "warm spring" [Picture] Copy address Log address:

Please use Ctrl C to copy and paste it to your friends.

Share

Mutang Antique Furniture September 23, 2010 14:07 Read (0) Comment (0) Category: Personal Diary Permission: Public

Font: Medium ▼ Small Medium Large More ▼ Set Top Permissions Set Recommended Logs Convert to Private Logs Delete Edit

In recent years, China’s new imitation classical furniture, especially antique furniture made of precious wood, has attracted widespread market attention. and sought after. Especially between 2005 and 2007, the price of precious woods used in classical furniture, such as Indian small-leaf rosewood, Hainan huanghuali, Vietnamese huanghuali, Laohong rosewood, etc., rose rapidly in geometric multiples. Buy this early and collect it. Those who invest in furniture or wood have received generous returns, and their return on investment is much higher than stocks and real estate during this period.

Under this demonstration of investment profits and collection value-added effects, more and more people have entered this market, including fans of traditional furniture culture and consumers who need home furnishings. Investors and collectors also have investors whose main purpose is investment appreciation. From the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2007, after a rapid rise all the way, it gradually began to consolidate at a high level in November 2007, and the prices of some of the lumber saw a certain degree of correction.

So, how will the market develop and evolve at this stage? Is it consolidation in an upward trend, or does it mean that the antique furniture market, like real estate and stocks, has entered a mid-term adjustment stage or even entered an inflection point?

With these hot issues of concern to many consumers and investors, the reporter interviewed Wu Bingliang, deputy director of the Chinese Traditional Furniture Professional Committee. Mr. Wu Bingliang gave detailed answers to the above questions and wrote an article to elaborate as follows:

To analyze the next trend of the new imitation classical furniture market, we should first review the background and reasons for the rapid rise in prices of precious wood and high-end antique furniture made of precious wood from 2005 to November 2007. . The background is that in recent years, China's economy has continued to develop and people's income levels have gradually increased. National self-confidence has increased. People's affirmation and love for traditional culture have been transformed into consumer demand, and more and more attention has been paid to integrating consumption and consumption in consumption patterns. Collection value-added and investment combined. China's new imitation classical furniture has received special attention due to its rare and precious materials, beautiful shapes, rich traditional cultural connotations, both artistry and practicality, and rapid investment appreciation space. Therefore, more and more people High-end consumer groups have entered this market, and the consumer groups for collecting and investing in antique furniture are constantly expanding. However, the natural resources of the precious wood used in this type of high-end antique furniture are facing depletion. The rapidly expanding consumer group has accelerated the consumption of precious wood. , thus driving up the price of these precious woods, and the price of furniture has naturally increased. Therefore, the rapid expansion of consumer groups and the scarcity of precious wood resources are the main reasons for the rapid rise in prices of high-end antique furniture.

With the rapid rise in prices of precious wood and high-end antique furniture, antique furniture manufacturers are facing a severe test. Because the price of precious wood remains high, the amount of funds for antique furniture manufacturers needs to be several times higher. increase to ensure the normal operation of production. Therefore, since 2007, some companies that originally used precious wood to make antique furniture have turned to relatively low-grade wood to make antique furniture to maintain the normal operation of the company. Other companies purchase low-priced African hardwood and rosewood to make antique furniture, and even sell them in the market under the name "African huanghuali". There are also some small factories in some areas. Due to the scarcity and high price of precious raw materials, in order to reduce the production cost of furniture and seek maximum profits, they use fragments and small materials of precious wood to make furniture in a patchwork and supplementary manner, and even use low-end wood. The surface of furniture is covered with precious wood, and this "veneer" method deceives customers and has a negative impact on the entire industry.

In November and December of 2007, the antique furniture market gradually calmed down, and the prices of some lumber began to cool down. The reasons are multifaceted and can be summarized as follows.

One of the influencing factors: The impact of the mainland stock market and real estate trends has affected the psychology of investors and collectors. The stock market has dropped from a previous high of more than 6,000 points to the current level of more than 3,900 points, a drop of nearly 30%. The real estate market has collapsed. As a result, consumer groups who invested in real estate and the stock market in the early stage have been deeply locked in, and are temporarily unable to transfer funds to invest in the antique furniture market.

The second influencing factor: Affected by macroeconomic control policies such as bank interest rate hikes, the market has become cautious. From 2006 to 2007, in the traditional furniture precious wood market, there were some investors who aimed at short-term investment profits. The wood they purchased was eager to sell it for cash near the end of the year to pay for bank loans and the increasing interest, thereby balancing the supply and demand relationship in the market to a certain extent, making lumber prices more stable.

The third influencing factor: the cyclical law of commodity price changes in the market economy. In a market economy, the relationship between supply and demand is one of the main factors that determines the fluctuations of commodity prices. The most basic factor for the rise in the price of precious wood is that scarce natural resources cannot meet the growing consumer demand. Because the growth cycle of these woods is very slow, this contradiction between supply and demand will definitely not be resolved in the short term, and the price of wood will rise further. However, in the process of rising, it is not possible to climb upward in a straight line for several years. Instead, it gradually rises in an ups and downs manner. It is currently in a normal consolidation cycle.

The fourth influencing factor: The inaccurate content of media reports misleads consumers and makes them have a wait-and-see mentality. At the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008, some websites and media reported that there were no objective and true reports on the price of precious wood. For example, it was reported that the price of red rosewood was reduced by nearly 20,000 yuan per ton, and that of small-leaf rosewood was reduced by 750,000 yuan per ton. to 300,000 yuan/ton, etc. These false information have misled some consumers. When consumers see that the market furniture sales price has not adjusted accordingly, they still hope that the price will fall back and are temporarily in a wait-and-see state, thereby making the market transaction. Volume dodge. As we all know, at present, except for some relatively poor small material prices of Laohong Rosewood, which have dropped by several thousand yuan per ton, the prices of long materials and aniseed materials have been very stable, while the prices of some particularly thick aniseed materials have increased. For small-leaf red sandalwood, in the peak period, except for a small part of the material, the highest price is close to 700,000-800,000 yuan/ton, and the general raw material price is between more than 500,000 to more than 600,000 yuan per ton. The current market price of regular raw materials is about More than 400,000 yuan/ton, the price of aniseed and good materials is around 500,000/ton, and the price of inferior bad materials and hollow scrap materials that cannot be used to make furniture is also around 200,000 to 300,000/ton. The prices of Hainan huanghuali and Vietnamese huanghuali have basically not changed much. Therefore, consumers should make judgments based on the specific market prices for these inaccurate reports.

Now I will list and explain each one based on the imported supply and actual market price of the wood used in traditional antique furniture, so that everyone can make objective judgments, eliminate undue concerns, and establish their own understanding of traditional antique furniture. Confidence in investing and collecting.

Small-leaf rosewood

In April 2007, I wrote an article "Review and Prospects of the New Antique Furniture Market in 2007", which analyzed and predicted the price trend of small-leaf rosewood: due to the It is rare and valuable. It is known as the "King of Woods" in traditional Chinese furniture and is highly sought after and loved by collectors, investors and consumers. In 2006, China imported about 1,300 tons of small-leaf rosewood wood from India. Due to the increase in domestic market demand and the tight supply of timber, and during that period, the price of small-leaf rosewood was far lower than that of Hainan huanghuali and Vietnamese huanghuali. In addition, India has increased its efforts to restrict the export of small-leaf rosewood to China. Therefore, small-leaf rosewood will There is a lot of room for growth.

After this article was published, the price trend of small-leaf rosewood was in line with my prediction. At the end of 2006, it was about 180,000 to more than 200,000 per ton. By the second half of 2007, it suddenly rose to more than 500,000 to more than 600,000 per ton. The prices of some particularly good coarse materials It can even reach as high as 700,000-800,000 yuan per ton, with an increase of 200 to 300 yuan. In 2007, due to the sharp rise in the price of small-leaf rosewood and the attraction of huge profits, more timber dealers took huge risks to purchase from India through different channels. Regarding wood, it is estimated that 4,000-5,000 tons of small-leaf rosewood wood entered the mainland from India in 2007. During this period, the supply of small-leaf red sandalwood is relatively abundant, and the excessive price increase in the short term has increased the costs of the companies that originally made small-leaf red sandalwood furniture. The demand for small-leaf red sandalwood has decreased. In addition, at the end of 2007, some wood sellers were unable to receive annual bank loans. In the meantime, they were eager to sell goods and repay the loan, so around November and December 2007, small-leaf red sandalwood fell back, with a price reduction of about 10-15. Due to the current price reduction of small-leaf rosewood, there is not much profit margin for wood dealers dealing in small-leaf rosewood. In addition, India has introduced various measures to strictly prohibit the export of small-leaf rosewood. It is believed that the amount of small-leaf rosewood entering the country in 2008 will increase. Greatly reduced, the price will also rise with the shock.

Hainan huanghuali and Vietnamese huanghuali

When it comes to huanghuali, especially Hainan huanghuali, except for some tree heads, tree branches and newly cut small pieces appearing in the market , the coarser old materials that can be used to make furniture are hard to buy. It can be said that "a thousand pieces of gold are easy to get, but a piece of wood is hard to find." At present, even the prices of old furniture such as rice cabinets and damaged tables and chairs made of huanghuali locally in Hainan have soared due to the scarcity of materials. Currently, the prices of Hainan huanghuali antique large-scale furniture on the market are sold more than ten years ago. Except for the returned goods sold abroad a few years ago, there are very few large pieces of Hainan huanghuali furniture on the market, and high-quality pieces are even more rare. The current market price of Shanghai Nanhuanghuali is: small and new materials cost 500-1,000 yuan per catty, medium-quality materials cost 2,000-3,000 yuan, large materials cost 3,000-4,500 yuan, and particularly large materials cost more than 5,000 yuan.

Some time ago, some experts put forward the argument that Hainan Huanghuali can be cultivated artificially and cultivated for thirty years, which caused some collectors and consumers to question the investment and collection value of Hainan Huanghuali. If Hainan Huanghuali is Huali can become useful in thirty years, so does it still have investment and collection value? According to records in relevant historical books, it is clearly stated that it takes hundreds of years for Hainan Huanghuali to become useful. As for the view that artificial planting can make a tree mature after 30 years, according to our actual understanding, the material density of this artificially planted Hainan huanghuali is looser than that of natural trees. After 30 years of artificial planting, the trunk of the huanghuali tree includes the white bark. The diameter is about 10 to 20 centimeters, but the real "lattice" in the middle core material is only the diameter of an egg, so it cannot be used to make furniture at all. Even if it is artificially planted, it will take at least one to two hundred years or even longer to grow into a thicker and "lattice" huanghuali material. The same is true for Indian small-leaf red sandalwood. It is impossible to cultivate it artificially in just a few decades. According to the Historical data records that small-leaf red sandalwood can take more than 600 years to become useful.

As for the supply of Vietnamese huanghuali materials, the amount of Vietnamese huanghuali materials entering China has been greatly reduced in 2007. It is estimated that the wood that can be used to make furniture will not exceed 500 tons. We calculated this in a scientific way. 500 tons of wood can only make more than a thousand pieces of large antique furniture (for example: scaffolding bed, Arhat bed, top box cabinet, painting table, etc.). The country's antique furniture market is huge, and the number of consumers seeking high-quality antique furniture made of precious wood is increasing year by year. It is not easy to have the opportunity to own such high-end furniture.

In order to understand the source of Vietnamese huanghuali and the shortage of natural resources, I had an in-depth understanding with a timber dealer in Laos last December. He mentioned that the origin of Vietnamese huanghuali is located in the virgin forest at the border of Vietnam and Laos. In addition to historical records, The materials used in huanghuali furniture come from other than Hainan and Annam (Vietnam). Starting more than 10 years ago, the supply of Vietnamese huanghuali wood exported to China from Vietnam has shrunk from several thousand tons a year at its peak to several hundred in 2007. tons, I believe it will gradually decrease in the future, and may even be out of stock. According to this timber dealer, the area near the Vietnam border where huanghuali timber is produced has been basically cleared and has now penetrated deep into the mountains of Laos. To reach the huanghuali forest area in Laos, you need to drive through a bumpy and uneven journey of more than 100 kilometers. After arriving at this area, you need to walk more than 30 kilometers into the hinterland of the forest to find a small amount of huanghuali wood. Due to the inconvenience of transportation, the felled wood Huanghuali can only be carried by manpower over the mountains and ridges to reach the transportation point with cars. During the entire felling and transportation process, due to the difficult and dangerous roads and high labor intensity, workers often sacrificed their precious lives for this. Today we can Having the opportunity to own high-quality antique furniture made of precious Vietnamese huanghuali material is indeed hard-won and should be cherished.

The current market price of Vietnamese huanghuali is: 200,000-400,000 yuan per ton for small tree heads and roots, 600,000-800,000 yuan per ton for medium-sized materials, and 1-1.8 million yuan for large sheets. Especially large ones Long material costs 1.8-2 million yuan. Earlier, Vietnamese huanghuali materials entered the domestic market continuously, but now only a small amount of sporadic wood is supplied to the market. Looking back on the period seven or eight years ago when whole trucks and batches of Vietnamese huanghuali wood entered China, the time is gone forever. Well, being able to use cheap and high-quality Vietnamese huanghuali materials to make antique furniture in the early days is also a beautiful memory of our antique furniture company. Last year, when I was talking to a senior collector in Hong Kong, I mentioned that the huanghuali wood that entered China from Vietnam was the same material used in Ming-style furniture in traditional furniture. Later, I also talked about this point of view specifically, but at that time it did not cause any further discussion. Many experts, industry insiders and consumers have paid attention to it. Therefore, more than 10 years ago, relatively cheap and high-quality Vietnamese huanghuali wood was crudely manufactured by some small factories to produce some low-grade huanghuali antique furniture, which wasted a lot of precious wood. It's really heartbreaking and regrettable. In the past two or three years, through publicity through online media, everyone has regained a correct understanding of Vietnamese huanghuali wood, but it is too late. Currently, Vietnam’s huanghuali wood resources are also on the verge of extinction. Based on this situation, our antique furniture companies should pay more attention to and cherish precious wood resources, grasp and make full use of them, and produce more classic traditional style furniture to pass on to future generations.

Laohong Rosewood

The Laohong Rosewood wood that entered mainland China from Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia in the past few years is thick and long in diameter, but from the recent development of Laohong Rosewood material The supply situation is not satisfactory. Tree heads, tree roots, tree forks and even small materials have begun to appear on the market, and most of the materials are between 60 cm and 120 cm in length. Based on this situation, we can infer According to the above analysis, Laohong Rosewood is also facing a shortage of natural resources. Because the areas where old red rosewood can be harvested have gradually extended from nearby areas to remote mountains, posing great obstacles to transportation. The only alternative is to rely on manpower to carry materials up and down the mountain, or use small handcarts for transportation. Although there are currently 10,000 to 20,000 tons of old red rosewood in stock on the market, nearly a thousand domestic companies in mainland China that use old red rosewood as the main material to make antique furniture will switch to normal production at the end of March. The demand for antique furniture is increasing. I believe that these stocks will be quickly consumed in a short period of time. Whether there will be a large supply of goods in the future, I believe everyone will find corresponding countermeasures. Regarding the current price of Laohong rosewood, the small material is more than 40,000 per ton, the medium material is 50,000-80,000, and the large material is between 100,000 and 130,000.

Other wood

Lushi’s black rosewood (commonly known as big-leaf rosewood) has increased from more than 40,000 per ton since the beginning of 2007 to the present due to the lack of smooth import channels. RMB 120,000-150,000 per ton.

The price of Caohuali rose slightly, ranging from 12,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan per ton.

The price of white rosewood has increased slightly, with the price per ton ranging from 15,000 yuan to 25,000 yuan.

In addition, a kind of wood locally called "African huanghuali" appeared on the market in the early stage, which was later identified as "hedgehog rosewood" by the Wood Industry Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Forestry Sciences. According to some hardwood wood on the market, the price has dropped from more than 8,000 yuan per ton in early 2007 to more than 5,000 yuan per ton now.

The materials used in the precious traditional furniture listed above include small-leaf rosewood (India), huanghuali (Hainan, Vietnam), and Laohong rosewood (originating in Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam). The sources and market prices of the materials , which fully reflects the supply shortage problem faced by the scarcity of various materials. Why do we see huanghuali including (Hainan huanghuali, Vietnamese huanghuali) rising all the way and remaining high? Some, such as the local names imported from Africa in the early stage, Antique furniture made of such cheap materials as "African huanghuali" has not been recognized by the market, but has fallen in price? The main reasons are due to oversupply and market recognition, which is the principle that rare things are more valuable. Therefore, positioning is very important in terms of investment and collection. I believe that the rarer and more precious wood is, the better the investment and collection value of high-quality antique furniture made from wood will be. At present, the natural resources used for precious traditional furniture are on the verge of extinction, which is really worrying. The antique furniture made of precious wood collected and owned in the past or now may be a historical opportunity and coincidence. I believe that this opportunity will be great in the future. It has been reduced. Just think about what quality furniture we can leave for future generations. It is worth thinking twice!

Looking forward to 2008, with the development of modern information technology, people can obtain information and knowledge related to traditional furniture more conveniently than before, thereby deepening their understanding of the art and market of antique furniture, and improving their investment and collection. will be more rational and mature. When we buy and collect antique furniture, we should not simply pursue the scarcity and preciousness of the wood to judge its value, but should combine the four criteria of "style", "art", "material" and "rhyme" to measure a piece. The art collection value of furniture. Only furniture that reaches the art collection level can withstand the test of the market.

Some time ago, some people compared the antique furniture market made of precious and scarce resource wood with investment speculation events such as Pu'er new tea and early Clivia, whose prices have been rising and falling sharply in recent years, and proposed that The argument that the market price of high-end antique furniture contains too much bubble content. As for the discussion in this regard, we can see that the main factor in the rising market prices of Pu'er new tea and Clivia lies in the artificial monopoly-style hype, in which there are huge profits, and The resources of products such as Pu'er new tea and Clivia can be recycled within one or two years after the expansion of planting. It is impossible to face the problem of depletion of natural resources, so the high prices cannot last long. However, the precious materials used in traditional furniture, such as small-leaf red sandalwood (India), huanghuali (Hainan, Vietnam), old red rosewood, etc., take hundreds or even thousands of years to mature. It is impossible to regenerate resources in the short term, and the supply The relationship with demand will only become more and more tense, so there is not much reason and room for price reductions.

As new imitation classical fine furniture becomes more and more recognized by traditional furniture enthusiasts and consumers, the consumer group gradually expands, and with the Olympic Games approaching and national self-confidence increasing, people are interested in thousands of traditional furniture. The excellent cultural love for traditional Chinese furniture left over from 2006 will make the new imitation classical furniture market more prosperous. I believe that after April 2008, the antique furniture market will gradually pick up and move forward, entering a sunny and warm spring. I hope that friends can seize the opportunity, clarify their collection and investment positioning, and purchase high-grade antique art furniture that they like and have room for appreciation.