First, the income of residents has increased steadily in recent years. China's macro-economy has maintained a steady development trend, the income level of residents has steadily increased, and the increase in disposable wealth has led to an increase in residents' deposits. Residents' income is an important driving force for the growth of residents' deposits.
Second, the increase of RMB loans has promoted the increase of residents' deposits. In the first half of this year, RMB loans increased by 654.38+03.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 965.438+092 billion yuan, while RMB loans in 2026.5438+0 only increased by 365.438+05 billion yuan. The growth of credit has increased the liquidity of the financial system and objectively promoted the increase of residents' deposits.
Third, the COVID-19 epidemic slowed down the macroeconomic growth in the first half of the year. The epidemic situation has had a great impact on the economy and residents' production and life, and also led to the decline of investment and consumption confidence of some residents. The survey report on urban depositors in the second quarter of 2022 released by the central bank shows that the number of residents who tend to increase their savings increased by 3.6% compared with the previous quarter, and the number of residents who tend to increase their investment decreased by 3.7% compared with the previous quarter.
Fourth, there are differences in the future trend of some investment products, and residents' willingness to invest in such investment products has declined under the mentality of seeking stability. For example, the regulation of the real estate industry has been further strengthened, residents' expectations of rising house prices have weakened, and the willingness to invest in the property market has declined.
To sum up, we can see that there are many factors that affect the increase of residents' deposits in the first half of the year, so we should objectively analyze the advantages and disadvantages of China's economy.
From the perspective of profit, the return of savings is conducive to stabilizing the economy and finance, and a high savings rate can reduce the possibility of systemic risks, especially at present, the core of the stability of China's financial system is still commercial banks, and the increase of deposits can help commercial banks improve their ability to resist risks.
On the negative side, the return of savings also shows that residents are cautious about future economic development. On the other hand, residents' lack of confidence in consumption and investment may lead to macroeconomic contraction, which is not conducive to sustained economic growth.
Based on the analysis of advantages and disadvantages, the increase of residents' deposits is neutral, but the current increase of residents' deposits does have poor consumer confidence in investment and consumption. Therefore, the focus of attention is not the household deposit itself, but how to restore consumer confidence in investment and consumption.
In this regard, we can promote it from the following aspects:
First, activate consumption and investment in a demand-driven way. In the field of consumption, all localities should give full play to the leverage of consumer vouchers while further strengthening the delivery of consumer vouchers. In the investment field, public infrastructure investment will be the main way to stimulate investment. By increasing investment in new infrastructure construction, we can not only cultivate new industries and form new kinetic energy, but also enhance investor confidence with new infrastructure.
Second, continue to promote supply-side reform, improve the supply efficiency and labor productivity of enterprises through scientific and technological innovation, and help enterprises enhance their technological competitiveness through the combination of industrial digitalization and Industry-University-Research. Promote the optimization of the business environment, accelerate the landing of scientific and technological achievements, and promote the emergence of new products, new formats and new business models.
Third, improve the supply level of people's livelihood security. The fundamental reason for residents' lack of confidence in consumption and investment is that residents are worried about the future. If these worries can be properly solved and the pressure of residents on issues such as old-age care, health, education, employment, maternity and support can be alleviated, the protection function of deposits for the future will naturally be weakened. Therefore, only by eliminating the worries in residents' lives and improving the level of social and people's livelihood security can we fundamentally boost residents' confidence in consumption and investment.