1. In the future, the total grain demand in China will increase from small to large. By 2007 and 20 12, the total grain demand in China will reach 50 16 10000 tons and 5722 10000 tons respectively; Compared with the total grain demand in 200 1 year, in 2007 and 20 12, the total grain demand in China increased by 16 1000 tons and 872 1000 tons respectively. According to the above calculation, without considering the export demand factor, compared with 200 1, the total grain demand in China will increase by 2.768 million tons every year before 2007; In the five years from 2008 to 20 12, the total grain demand in China will increase by14120,000 tons every year. Judging from the average annual increase of the total grain demand, the situation of grain supply and demand in China will be loose first and then tight in the next 5- 10 years. If soybeans and miscellaneous grains including potatoes are deducted and only the main grain varieties such as rice, wheat and corn are considered, the grain supply and demand pattern in China will be more obvious in the next 5- 10 years. In 200 1 year, the total net export of rice, wheat and corn in China was 819.110000 tons. When calculating the total grain demand of China in 2007 and 20 12, this part of net export demand was not considered. In order to increase comparability, we will deduct the net grain export from the grain demand in 200 1 year, and then deduct the increase in the demand for soybeans and miscellaneous grains when calculating the total grain demand in China in the next 5- 10. The calculation results show that the total demand of rice, wheat and corn in China will be 0 by 2007 and 20 12, regardless of the net export factor. During the six years from 2002 to 2007, the total demand for rice, wheat and corn in China will be reduced by 654.38+435 million tons every year. During the six years from 2008 to 20 12, the annual increase was 6.352 million tons.
2. From the experience since the Sixth Five-Year Plan, it is possible to achieve the balance between supply and demand of grain in China mainly by increasing domestic output in the next 5- 10 years. Compared with the last five-year plan, the total grain output of China increased by nearly 30 million tons, 40 million tons and 50 million tons during the Seventh Five-Year Plan, the Eighth Five-Year Plan and the Ninth Five-Year Plan respectively. From the Sixth Five-Year Plan to the Eighth Five-Year Plan and from the Seventh Five-Year Plan to the Ninth Five-Year Plan, the total grain output of China increased by nearly 70 million tons and 90 million tons respectively. Considering the grim situation of China's grain production in the future, we can conservatively estimate that in the next five years and 10, China's total grain output will be equivalent to 2 13 of the total grain output during the Ninth Five-Year Plan, the Eighth Five-Year Plan and the Ninth Five-Year Plan. After deducting the maximum grain value of 20 million tons reduced by returning farmland to forests and grasslands, the average annual grain output in China will increase by/kloc-0.30 million tons and 40 million tons in 2007 and 2065, respectively, which is equivalent to the average annual increase of total grain demand by 78.3% and 45.9%. It should be noted that when making this estimate, we overestimated the grain demand as much as possible, but also underestimated the grain output as much as possible, so the actual grain production increase in China may be more satisfied with the increase in demand at that time.
By 2007 and 20 12, of the total increase in grain demand in China (166 10000 tons and 872 10000 tons respectively), there will be 15830 tons and 35430 tons respectively. During this period, domestic soybean production is difficult to meet domestic demand, and it is an indisputable fact that the gap between supply and demand is large. Domestic soybean supply and demand gap; The main performance is oil soybean; The suitable areas for oil soybean production are mainly concentrated in high latitudes, such as three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia. These areas have expanded the cultivation of oil soybeans. Although it has certain potential, it is restricted by the total amount of cultivated land and the comparative interest relationship between soybean and corn. After all, the scope is limited. Moreover, major soybean producing countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina have large-scale soybean exports, especially Brazil and Argentina, where soybean production has increased rapidly. As long as China has proper channels to make up the income of farmers in the main producing areas, it is possible and beneficial to import or even expand some soybeans appropriately, which will not lead to the so-called "food security" problem. Therefore, considering that the growth of soybean demand mainly depends on foreign imports, except for a few years, even by 20 12, it should be no problem to meet 60% of domestic demand growth only by the growth of China's grain output.
3. China has sufficient domestic grain stocks, which provides an important guarantee for filling the gap between domestic supply and demand in the near future. The minimum reserve scale of world food security proposed by FAO is that before the start of the new grain year (large-scale harvest of new grain), the grain reserve should reach 18% of the annual grain consumption, that is, the grain consumption should be guaranteed for more than two months. The large-scale harvest of new grain in China took place in May (slightly different from place to place), so; According to FAO's standards, the minimum grain reserve for food security in China should be that the grain reserve at the end of the year can meet 6.5 months' food consumption. According to the grain consumption of 200 1 year, the minimum size of China's grain reserves should be 2627 1 10,000 tons. According to the grain demand in 2007 and 20 12, the minimum size of China's grain reserves should be 27 1.74 million tons and 309.95 million tons. In 20001year, the total scale of national grain enterprises and central and local grain reserves was 265 million tons, and farmers stored about 200 million tons of grain, nearly 200 million tons higher than the minimum reserve scale required for food security; 77% higher than the reasonable size of the minimum reserve. As long as the market price rises reasonably, it is entirely possible to turn the grain reserves of some enterprises and agricultural products into market supply; Therefore, even if the grain output is lower than the consumption of 20 million tons for two consecutive years, the domestic grain stock is basically enough to stabilize the domestic grain market. However, if we can't fundamentally reverse the trend of food consumption exceeding production in recent years; Then, with the gradual digestion and reduction of existing stocks, the role of stocks in filling the gap between food supply and demand will be obviously weakened after 2007.
(2) The basic attitude towards food security in China in the next 5- 10 years should be cautious and optimistic, and take precautions.
1. Optimistic factors of food security in China.
-once the market price of grain tends to be reasonable, the interest mechanism will drive farmers to diversify and enterprises to sell more grain. In the south and areas with two harvests a year and three harvests in two years, it only takes farmers half a year or more to increase their output. Currently; China's grain production capacity has reached a high level, and the interest mechanism has increasingly become the dominant mechanism for regulating grain supply and demand and resource allocation. A large number of studies show that under the current conditions, the supply elasticity of grain in China is far greater than the demand elasticity. For example, Xiao Guoan's research shows that the supply elasticity of agricultural products in China is greater than the demand elasticity in most years since the mid-1980s. In 2000, for example, the supply elasticity of grain in China was 0.82, while the demand elasticity was only 0.26.
In recent years, China has abundant foreign exchange reserves. Once there is a shortage of food in the domestic market, it is not a big problem to import some food as a supplement. World Agriculture: 20 15-2030 Outlook published by FAO in 2002 shows that with the slowdown of global population growth, the growth of global food demand will gradually weaken, and in the medium and long term, the world food demand will not exceed supply; Therefore, China has the conditions to import more food from the world market. In 20001/2002, the world grain trade volume was 238.6 million tons. Since 1980s, China's largest annual grain import volume, except soybeans, is 20 million tons, which is less than 10% of the world grain trade volume. Although in a certain year, the rapid and large-scale expansion of food imports may drive the rapid rise of food prices in the world market; However, if proper attention is paid to balancing imports, the impact on world food prices will be controlled to a certain extent. In addition, due to China's "great power effect", a large increase in imports will lead to a shift in the food price relationship between the international and domestic markets, which is conducive to curbing imports and increasing domestic production.
After China's entry into WTO, with the expansion of opening to the outside world, importing some grain products that China does not have a comparative advantage and transferring the corresponding resources to departments with comparative advantages will help improve China's comprehensive welfare level. Theoretically speaking, after China's entry into WTO, the expansion of import quotas and the reduction of tariffs will lead to a large increase in imports and a decrease in exports of land-intensive agricultural products that lack comparative advantages in China. Of course, this adjustment of import and export pattern should be steadily promoted on the basis of balancing the interests of farmers in the main producing areas. In recent years, a large number of facts show that in international relations, the era of food importing countries in a passive situation has basically ended, and compared with exporting countries, food importing countries are often in a more favorable position. Therefore, in the future, China should take the initiative to use the international market to regulate domestic grain supply and demand. China doesn't need to set a high position on the domestic food self-sufficiency rate. It should be necessary and feasible to reduce the current positioning from 95% to 90%.
2. We should not be blindly optimistic about the food security situation in China.
-At present, although the grain stocks of enterprises and farmers in China are relatively large, a considerable part of the stocks, especially the stocks of farmers, cannot be adjusted and used in the critical period, and it is difficult to convert them into market supply; In particular, if the situation of grain supply and demand reverses and grain prices rise, farmers and grain enterprises may hoard grain and refuse to sell it, increase stocks, reduce sales and wait for high prices, and local governments in major grain producing areas may also contribute to this. The experience of the past twenty years has fully proved this point; As mentioned above, China's grain production and storage scale has a strong regional imbalance. In addition, China has a vast territory and a backward grain logistics system, which makes it more difficult to transfer grain and achieve regional balance and variety balance. In addition, whether it is enterprise inventory or agricultural inventory, there may be some moisture, especially in enterprise inventory, there are some aged grains that cannot be used as rations.
-In China's grain supply and demand and resource allocation, the dominant mechanism has changed from a planned mechanism to a market mechanism. Therefore, the "big country effect" of grain production and consumption is more and more likely to reduce the room for manoeuvre in the adjustment of grain supply and demand. This is fundamentally different from the planned and administrative means mainly used in grain supply and demand and resource allocation during the planned economy period. At that time, the "great power effect" of China's grain production and consumption was actually conducive to increasing the room for manoeuvre in the adjustment of grain supply and demand.
-In the future, if the agricultural infrastructure cannot be significantly improved, once the grain output fluctuates negatively for two consecutive years, it may lead to a rapid reversal of the relationship between grain supply and demand. Since 1980s, the highest negative fluctuation coefficient of grain output in China has reached 5. 15%, especially for wheat and corn, and even reached 10. 15% and 15.68% respectively. In recent years, natural conditions have had a serious negative impact on grain production in China. Because the commodity rate of China's agricultural grain management is low, the slight fluctuation of market supply can easily form a "amplification effect" on the fluctuation of grain prices, which will lead to a series of economic and social problems.
-The above optimistic factors about the food security situation in China are largely based on stabilizing and enhancing the grain production capacity. However, at least from the trend, there are still a series of realistic, potential and possible factors affecting the stability of China's grain production capacity, such as the land occupied by urban construction.
-In the next 5- 10 years; The main contradiction between grain supply and demand in China will change from total contradiction to structural contradiction, and regional balance and variety adjustment will increasingly become the main problems to be solved in regulating grain supply and demand. With the decline of the comparative benefit of grain production and the increasingly obvious problem of grain burden in the main producing areas, the "two increases and one decrease" in the regional grain balance is likely to be transformed into "three increases and one decrease": not only the number of surplus grain provinces and grain-deficient provinces increases, but also the total surplus grain in surplus grain provinces decreases, and the rapid economic development and the large increase of foreign labor in some areas may lead to the rapid emergence and aggravation of grain shortage; Even in some traditional major grain producing areas in the south, these problems will become more and more serious.