When the per capita GDP reaches more than 5000 dollars, the sports industry will usher in a golden growth period. In 2065,438+065,438+0, China's per capita GDP will reach about $5,700, and in 2065,438+05, it will be closer to $8,000. Obviously, the sports industry has entered a stage of rapid development. If we follow the 5 trillion target of the State Council Document No.46, the future 10 will be compounded on average. In addition, from the international comparison:
1, the total population of China exceeds1300 million, and the current sports industry scale is about 50 billion US dollars. Compared with the population of 300 million in the United States, the market size of sports industry is about 500 billion dollars, and there is still great growth potential.
2. The State Sports General Administration predicts that the added value of sports industry in China will account for 0.7% of GDP in 20 15 years. Although it is increasing year by year, it is still far below the average level of 1%-3% in developed countries (the global average level is about 2%), so there is still room for growth of at least 2-3 times, and it is expected to reach 1% by 2020.
3.20 14 years, China's per capita sports consumption is about 152 dollars, which is at least twice the growth space compared with the level of more than 300 dollars in other developed countries.
Second, China sports industry development trend forecast
In the second half of 1 and 20 14, the sports industry in China ushered in a long period of policy bonus and deepening reform. The development of sports has risen to the national strategic level, and the top-down impetus is unprecedented, which will have a far-reaching positive impact on improving the national physique and helping the economic transformation and development. We believe that from 20 15, it has quickly entered the substantive landing stage. In particular, the relevant opinions in Circular 46 have been gradually implemented, football has become the vanguard of reform, and the overall industry development environment has been greatly improved. We can see that in 20 14, the sports cultural industry fund and sports property rights trading platform were established one after another. In 20 15, the media copyrights of China Super League, team China and women's football super league were subject to market-oriented bidding, and the General Administration of Sports was decoupled from the Football Association.
2. If 20 15, which is called "competition year, industry year and road running year", is a relatively "sports year", then 20 16, which is about to usher in the Olympic Games and the quadrennial European Cup, is a veritable "sports year". This year, we will enjoy the world-famous Rio Olympic Games, the World Cup qualifiers lit by bonfires, the skating competition with speed and passion, the tennis open against the peak, or the NBA finals of the Cavaliers' revenge warriors, the qualifying tour of the national football World Cup, and the Super League and AFC Champions League throughout China. Many explosions are expected to stimulate the number of domestic audiences, market enthusiasm, media exposure and brand effect.
3. There is an obvious positive correlation between the annual sports events and the ratings of related programs. During the Olympic Games, the viewing share of CCTV-5 events has greatly increased. Since 1997, CCTV has bought out the rights to broadcast the four Olympic Games and enjoyed the exclusive rights to broadcast the Olympic Games. In 2004, the Athens Olympic Games earned 700 million yuan in advertising revenue, and during the Beijing Olympic Games, it earned 2-3 billion yuan in advertising revenue. During the World Cup and Asian Games in 20 10, and during the Olympic Games and European Cup in 20 12, the minutes of watching sports programs by national TV viewers have increased greatly in recent years.
20 12 is the European cup year and the lottery year. The total sales of sports lottery in China exceeded 1000 billion for the first time, and the sales of quiz lottery reached 26.83 billion yuan, up 23.0% year-on-year. Due to the promotion of the European Cup, SMG increased by 39.69%, and its sales reached 1.735438+0.5 billion yuan, accounting for 65% of the total sales of quiz tickets.
In addition, the big year of sports events brings the growth of sponsorship advertising business. The broadcast of major sports events means that greater advertising market income can be realized. The media will certainly provide unprecedented advertising opportunities for many international and domestic brands while maximizing the audience's attention. The data shows that during the 20 12 London Olympic Games, the advertising cost of alcoholic beverages increased strongly by 32%; Traditional media advertising and internet advertising reached their peak in the second quarter (2-3 months before the Olympic month).
4. Compared with overseas mature developed markets, China's sports industry started late. In the 1990s, it was proposed to deepen the system reform of sports industry, which gradually took shape around 2000 and began to connect with the capital market. State-owned sports companies launched the Chinese sports industry 1998. With the publication of Document No.46 in the second half of 20 14, the industry has been divorced from the administrative color. Officially entered the substantive stage of market-oriented reform, but for a large number of sports companies, it is still a critical period of investment layout, and the integration of sports business and capital has risen to a new strategic height.
6. The sports industry is mainly divided into two parts: sporting goods and sports services. In mature and developed overseas markets, high value-added sports services account for more than 50%, while China is in an extremely unbalanced state, with sports manufacturing accounting for more than 70%. We believe that there will be continuous optimization and adjustment in the future, and the sports service industry, including fitness and leisure, venue operation and event operation, has huge medium-and long-term development space, which is not only the key to determine the rise of sports consumption in the future, but also the importance of inciting the future 5 trillion market. And with the deepening of reform in recent years, the sports industry is coming out of the closed state, and the service industry chain with content as the core tends to be complete. On the basis of preliminary forms such as competition operation, copyright operation and brokerage business, sub-sectors such as sports tourism, sports technology, venue operation, sports new media and big data are also blooming, and the huge sports consumption market is bound to generate huge commercial value.
7. Intelligent informatization has also become an important trend in the future. Take Leshi Sports Ecological Center (formerly Beijing Wukesong Basketball Hall) as an example. In 20 16, letv sports will cooperate with ZTE to build Wukesong gymnasium into the world's leading intelligent gymnasium, with the goal of achieving full network coverage of 1 8,000 people and network speed of1megabit per second. On this basis, the audience can enjoy all kinds of intelligent services provided by the venue through the mobile APP application.
8. With the dual promotion of funds and policies, China has ushered in a wave of venue investment boom, the number and scale of which are increasing day by day. According to the data bulletin of the sixth national sports ground survey, by the end of 20 13, there were 1694600 sports ground in China, with a site area of19.92 million square meters. On average, every 10,000 people have sports fields 12.45, and the per capita sports field area 1.46 square meters. Compared with the ten years in 2003, it increased by 99.4% and 4 1.7% respectively. However, the current per capita venue area is less than one tenth of that of the United States (per capita 16 square meter) and one twelfth of that of Japan (per capita 19 square meter). The development space is huge, and the quality and function of venues will reach a new level.
9. In terms of financial input, the fiscal expenditure in 2065438 was+03.697 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 52.73%. Among the total expenditure on sports, the expenditure on sports venues accounts for the highest proportion, reaching 36.9%. During the period of 20 1 1-20 14, the annual growth rate of public finance stadium expenditure was 26.55%. On this basis, it is estimated that the expenditure on stadiums and gymnasiums in public finance from 20/kloc-0 to 6-2020 will be 2193,600 yuan and 2193,600 yuan respectively. In the future investment in sports industry, stadium expenditure will still occupy a large proportion.