If your answer is below 7%, then this article is very important to you. After reading it, you will find that the real interest rate is more than twice as high as you thought.
A typical scene of installment payment-buying a mobile phone
Let's look at a scene first. Suppose we want to buy a mobile phone on Tmall, as shown below:
We can choose the full amount of 5999 yuan, or we can choose to pay by installments with flowers. The first phase lasts for one month.
For example, we can choose 12 months for repayment, and each installment is 537 yuan, which is 6449 yuan, of which the "handling fee" is 449.92 yuan.
Anyone with a little economic knowledge knows that the so-called "handling fee" is interest, so what is the interest rate of our consumer loan?
How to calculate the interest rate? How high? Appearance and truth
Some people may say that interest rate = interest principal, and the term of 12 is one year, then the annualized interest rate = 449.95999 = 7.5%;
Similarly, the monthly interest rate =37.495999=0.625%, which is within the acceptable range.
I want to say that the truth is far from simple. Although many people think so, this algorithm is wrong.
Now let's consider a new situation:
For example, if you buy this mobile phone and buy it on credit, 12 months later, you will pay 6449 yuan in one lump sum (including 5999 yuan in principal and 449.9 yuan in interest), then there is no doubt that the interest rate is 7.5%. You also paid 449.9 yuan more than the installment payment. Did you find anything different?
Take 12 as an example. The "mystery" of installment payment is that you are paying back the principal every installment, which means that you owe less and less principal.
However, the lender has been charging a fixed percentage of the so-called "handling fee", that is, interest, on the basis of all the principal. What is the real interest rate after discovering the mystery?
The calculation process is a bit complicated, which requires a certain foundation of mathematics and economics. First of all, we must understand the time value of money, and readers who are not interested in specific calculations can directly look at the conclusion.
12 needs to pay 537 yuan in installments, and the discounted cash flow method at a certain interest rate r should be equal to the principal, that is:
Principal = f1(1r) F2/(1r) 2? F 12/( 1R) 12
Where: F 1 represents the first cash flow, and so on, and r represents the monthly interest rate.
5999 = 537.4/( 1 r)537.4/( 1 r)^2？ 537.4/( 1 r)^ 12
Just use a computer to solve R. There is a special function in Excel to solve this equation, which is IRR (Internal Rate of Return) function. Interested readers can try it themselves and get:
Note: Compound interest is commonly known as "compound interest". It is more reasonable to calculate compound interest here, but it is slightly lower if it is calculated by simple interest, but the difference is not big.
In order to let users understand, Yu 'ebao will take pains to explain to you that the so-called seven-day annualized rate of return (for example, 3.784% on a certain day) is to invest 10000 yuan in Yu 'ebao and earn 378.4 yuan a year;
But it won't tell you that if you borrow 1, 000 yuan to buy flowers, you need to pay 1, 440 yuan interest one year.
As shown in the above table, the three phases and six phases are all above 14%.
The author calculated with several other commodities and found that the interest rate is the same, that is to say, the interest rate of flower buds has nothing to do with the types of commodities. After verification by different users, it is found that it has nothing to do with users.
Other institutions seem to have gone too far.
JD.COM Xiaomi introduced the concept of rate. The author thinks that the price of this rate is suspected of misleading consumers. Similarly, through the author's grassroots research, many consumers basically understand this "rate" as interest rate (the friend mentioned above is an example).
But "interest rate" is by no means an interest rate. As mentioned above, interest rate is a proper term in economics.
In China, the definition and interpretation of interest rate is in the hands of the People's Bank of China (the central bank), and the interest rate calculation of the whole financial system is regulated. For example, mortgage is also an installment payment, but mortgage dare not introduce any concept of rate. Interest rate is interest rate.
Never say that consumer credit is priced by rate, not by interest rate;
This is the best way to price the money fund. These companies don't know or count. Look at the picture below. Definitely a real hammer.
information disclosure
The interest rate of small loans disclosed by Xiaomi Group is 16%, which is very close to the author's calculation, which once again proves the correctness of the author's calculation of interest rate.
5 1 Prospectus submitted to HKEx when the credit card is listed:
Consumption is also a loan, and the pricing method should be interest rate. They also disclose interest rates to regulators, but they just don't want to tell you.
Suning directly marked the monthly interest rate 1%. The author believes that this pricing method has been suspected of "fraud".
The author has compiled the interest rates of the following platforms and unified them into 12, as shown in the following table:
Xiaomi and JD.COM have the lowest interest rates, followed by Bai Hua, and Suning's interest rate is surprisingly higher than 20%, which hurts the users of interesting shops.
Is the interest rate of credit high?
Profiteering industry
According to the above table, the interest rate of consumer credit is basically 14%-27%, so is this interest rate high? The author lists some common interest rates for comparison:
Not strictly understood, from left to right, the top four are the interest rate gains we can get by saving money, which are basically below 4%.
The last four are the interest we need for the loan.
Rate cost, consumer loan interest rate is 2.5 -5 times of housing loan interest rate. Seeing this multiple, I don't know what to say.
It is worth mentioning that China the Supreme People's Court stipulates that after the annual interest rate of private lending exceeds 24%, the judiciary will not protect it, that is to say, if it exceeds 24%, it is a "usury" in a complete sense.
The interest rate of consumer credit in fun shops has exceeded 24%, which can basically be understood as that users of fun shops are buying mobile phones through "usury".
Seeing that the real interest rate of consumer credit is so high, I wonder how big these businesses are?
Grassroots surveys have found that many young people use consumer credit such as flower buds, but how big is the specific business scale? Driven by curiosity, the author finally found the real and reliable scale data.
First of all, we must know that Ant Financial has made a lot of consumer credit through this product, but where does the money come from?
It is found that consumer loan companies such as Ant Financial and Jingdong Finance will issue ABS (asset-backed securities) to financial institutions based on consumer loans.
According to the authoritative financial data terminal wind, as of 20181.9, the balance of asset-backed securities (ABS) based on microfinance is close to 200 billion, most of which are based on consumer credit of Internet companies.
The above is the total stock. Judging from the issuance amount, the total amount of ABS issued by Ant Financial in 20 18 has reached120 billion.
We found that Ant Financial has a gross profit of about 8% in the flower bud business (for the sake of simple calculation, flower bud and borrowing bud are no longer distinguished), which is really a good business.
Based on the scale of 65.438+06 billion, the gross profit of Ant Financial's flower shop business alone has reached more than 65.438+00 billion (of course, the gross profit has to deduct various operating costs and cover the risk of bad debts, which will not be discussed in detail here).
From the consumer's point of view, it is even worse, because consumers who borrow consumer credit and residents who provide funds to banks may be the same people.
For example, some people usually buy Yu 'ebao, bank financing and so on. While using the flower bed, I feel that I have earned it and made good use of my financial resources, but I actually lost it;
For another example, some young people often borrow consumer loans, but their parents may be buying bank wealth management or deposits. From the perspective of merger, consumers still borrow money by themselves, and at the same time, they have to pay more than 10% of the cost to intermediary institutions such as Ant Financial and banks.
After checking these, the author seems to have deepened his understanding of many things, such as:
On June 8th, 20 18, Ant Financial announced a new round of financing with the financing amount of1400 million USD. The market expects Ant Financial to be valued at around 1 trillion yuan after financing, making it the most cattle unicorn enterprise in the world.
The valuation of JD Finance 20 18 has also risen to more than10 billion.
There is no other reason why the valuations of the two companies have risen so fast, that is, it is indeed profitable to use the Internet to lend "usury", but consumers do not seem to know. They just feel that with consumer credit, they seem to be even more stretched.
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Related Questions and Answers: Related Questions and Answers: If Bai Hua pays back the money in installments, will the installment payment generate interest? Alipay's flower buds, paying back the money in installments, and paying in installments during the period will definitely generate interest!
The interest on the installment repayment of Alipay Flower Garden is different according to the total number of months in your installment, and the interest is also different!