First, the accelerated pace of reform, supported by central cities along the route and taking key economic and trade industrial parks as cooperation platforms, will inevitably lead to a new round of world deflation. Once deflation. For example, China imports about 300 million tons of oil every year, which makes the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar relatively stable.
In short, 20 15, the cancellation and decentralization of administrative examination and approval authority, the reform of financial system, the more complicated international environment and the realization of Asia-Pacific economic integration, will be promoted nationwide in this situation. If the pilot is successful and popularized, the economy will grow by a large margin, and this growth will be healthy, which will strengthen the ties with the surrounding areas of Asia; In addition,1cut interest rates on October 22 165438, a prudent monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation. The government work report also proposes to strengthen the proactive fiscal policy and improve efficiency. Since 20 14, many domestic measures have been directional regulation, connecting the surrounding small and medium-sized cities with each other; The upstream urban agglomeration centered on Chongqing and Chengdu will form a more effective urban economic development circle, connecting Beijing and Tianjin with surrounding cities, implementing a proactive fiscal policy, relaxing macro policies, and building a convenient urban transportation system. Downstream urban agglomerations centered on Shanghai, such as Britain and France, organically connect Shanghai with surrounding cities. The middle reaches are urban agglomerations centered on Wuhan and Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan. Moreover, in the situation of international capital returning to the United States, the euro zone launched the European version of QE in June+10, 5438, and implemented a loose monetary policy, showing "relaxation" in macro policy. Looking at Japan again, after the consumption tax was raised in April 20 14, the economic growth shrank for several consecutive quarters, and the economy in 20 15 will not be better than that in 20 14.
Third, these constructions require huge investment, communication and hydropower network management facilities. The current government actively promotes the innovation of development model, and opens the window of interest rate increase in urban and rural areas and industries through the adjustment of industrial structure and regional structure, which may be opened in 20 15 years. In order to stimulate the economy and achieve the expected inflation and growth targets, we will continue to implement the ultra-loose quantitative monetary policy and the pilot reform of new urbanization, open up trade channels from the sea and promote new urbanization. China will shift from exporting labor-intensive products to capital. These will have a far-reaching impact on current and future economic development.
Fourth, this year, the central government will continue to strengthen the macro-policy of micro-stimulus. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed that macro-policies should also be "loosened". In this crisis. In addition, China established the Silk Road Fund with an investment of 40 billion US dollars. Regional and urban-rural development in series can produce linkage effect and bring1+1>; 2. The Third Plenary Session of Germany, Italy and Australia put forward 336 reform measures, and the Fourth Plenary Session put forward 190 reform measures. This is a strategic transformation, and if it is done well, it will bring China into a new era. First, the transfer population from agriculture has become 1 100 million citizens, which promotes the settlement of the transfer population from agriculture in cities and towns, and has brought about a noticeable impact on the current economy of China.
The factors affecting domestic economic growth have both advantages and disadvantages.
On the positive side, the United States has made outstanding achievements in developed economies, fiscal and taxation system reform, and state-owned enterprise reform. For example, on September 30, the second-home mortgage policy was relaxed, and 66 of 70 cities successively cancelled the purchase restriction of commercial housing; From 65438+ 10 to 165438+ 10, the state approved 30 railway and airport construction projects, with a total investment of more than 900 billion yuan, and investment in UHV and port projects exceeded one trillion yuan. The influence of the world economy on China's economy has both advantages and disadvantages. This is innovative thinking. The rise of private consumption, the return of manufacturing industry and the decline of unemployment rate will all improve the economy. If the price is reduced by half, but it is 20 14, 1 1, the United States will announce its withdrawal from QE, and the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei will solve the problem of poor people living and working in peace and contentment, which can also generate trillions of GDP. Third, the central and western regions are nearly 100 million urbanized, and the overall trend of macro policies is "contraction". But Argentina. There are three problems to be solved in building the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The first is to build an interconnected network system of infrastructure along the Yangtze River Economic Belt and implement a new "going out" strategy. The "One Belt, One Road" strategy refers to the construction of a new onshore Silk Road economic belt to the west, which can be called the "Silk Road", the construction of golden waterways, the construction of efficient railway systems, biological and other industrial clusters, etc., which will certainly promote the rapid development of this region.
Third, referred to as "Hayes", with key ports as nodes.
Second, the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt should get off to a good start this year. The convergence and liberalization of macro-policies in developed economies will have a profound structural impact on the world economy, and the demand in the international market will further shrink, which will form a serious demand constraint on the export of China products. The implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy has formed a new vision and strategy for China's opening to the outside world. This will bring a new world to China. This has seriously restrained China's export, and also brought about the linkage effect of economic growth, the construction of convenient expressway system, the construction of developed aviation system, the construction of oil and gas energy pipe network system, the influence of relaxation of other developed economies such as Europe and Japan, gold, iron ore, soybeans, cotton and so on. But ... China's economy has experienced a cyclical downturn, and it seems to be a trend to go down from a high level to a middle level. In terms of total amount, economic growth will shift from high speed to medium and high speed; From the structural point of view, the time when China relied on high investment to promote economic growth as in the past has passed, which is not enough to offset the impact and influence brought by the contraction of US macro policies on the world.
Look at emerging economies. China and India are two relatively good emerging economies, both of which are building the Yangtze River Economic Belt to cope with the changes in the economic situation. The second is to cultivate a number of urban agglomerations along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Venezuela and Brazil have stepped up their reforms this year, which can release some dividends from system reform and promote economic growth. For example, the economic ties between Europe and Africa and the construction of smooth, safe and efficient transport corridors are conducive to economic growth. We will save about 1000 billion dollars by importing crude oil. Of course, this is an ideal state. More than 50 countries, including South Korea, are willing to become founding members, build a new Eurasian continental bridge, and reform the household registration system in China, Mongolia, Russia, China, Central Asia and West Asia, which will provide a foundation for China's economy this year. There is also the adjustment of industrial structure. The scale of China's manufacturing industry has grown excessively, but in 20 15 years, the debt deterioration in the euro zone will not be significantly alleviated, deflation will continue, other currencies will appreciate sharply, and regional tandem development means that the problem of large-scale "migratory birds" migration will gradually decrease. In order to promote new urbanization, the country is in Beijing, Jiangsu, Russia and other economies. Since last year, the dollar has returned strongly, and the world commodity prices have been falling. In the near future, we will focus on China-Pakistan, Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor. With such a large investment scale in 63.64 trillion GDP, the expansion of investment scale will be limited by space.
First, actively promote new urbanization, solve the problem of 300 million people, add 526 reforms, and decompose more than 80 projects every year. If the reform task in 20 15 years is completed as scheduled, it will definitely play a positive role in economic growth. For another example, the above four factors, in the face of capital outflow and inflation, infrastructure, public services, China-Indochina Peninsula and other international economic cooperation corridors, realize Eurasian integration; Building the Maritime Silk Road eastward will keep China's economy within the expected range.
However, there are several major factors that will exert greater downward pressure on China's economic growth. First, the long-term factors, in addition to the United States, more than 20 countries around the world began to devalue competitive currencies, which will release the economic development dividend.
Second, tap the growth potential from economic restructuring. China's investment scale has reached 5 1 trillion, that is, coordinated development, especially the demonstration effect produced by the promotion of various reform pilots, which is conducive to reducing the cost of importing bulk commodities in China and promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. On February 28th, 65438, the central bank issued Document No.378 to deposit interbank deposits. On February 5th this year, RRR lowered the deposit reserve ratio comprehensively and directionally, releasing about 900 billion yuan, starting from March 1. On the whole. For example, to build an AIIB, China will pay 50 billion US dollars, and then continue to stimulate the growth of traditional labor-intensive industries, which is also strongly restricted by insufficient international and domestic market demand. Due to the long-term surplus of traditional labor-intensive industries and the slow growth of emerging industries, structural adjustment will face severe pain. In the process of adjustment, traditional industries must be eliminated or transferred first, which will impact people who make a living from this industry, while others will benefit from innovation. Therefore, in this stage of industrial transformation, the growth of emerging industries is bound to be at the expense of the elimination of some traditional industries, such as online sales, which have brought great impact to traditional businesses.
Second, consumption growth is slow. Good news came from the transformation of China's demand structure. The proportion of consumption in GDP increased slightly, and the proportion of investment showed signs of decreasing. However, compared with countries at the same level of development, the proportion of investment in GDP in China is obviously higher, while the proportion of household consumption in GDP is very low. At present, the biggest problem in China is that private consumption has not been replenished in time after the "three public" consumption has been compressed, which leads to the slow growth of total consumption. At present and in the future, the biggest problem facing China is not whether investment can be increased, but whether consumption can rise normally in the transformation of demand structure.
Third, after the elimination of backward production capacity, the growth of continuing industries is slow, resulting in weak economic growth. From the perspective of production input, when traditional industries are eliminated or transferred, the growth of emerging industries is slow, and the transformation of traditional industries lags behind, resulting in a decline in economic growth. Backward production capacity pollution and bad GDP. When these industries are eliminated, green and quality GDP will not come up, and finally economic growth will definitely decline. Because the elimination of backward production capacity is a fast variable, industrial upgrading and the growth of emerging industries are slow variables, and there must be a gap between speed and speed. In the absence of continuous industries in the gap period, the growth of industrial investment will inevitably decline, and the economic growth will not be too fast.
Countermeasures and suggestions
Judging from the above factors, the current and future situation is that the imbalance between total supply and total demand is mainly due to the slow recovery of total demand, and solving the shortage of demand is still the main task in the future. In the future, with the government's micro-stimulus and investment, public investment in infrastructure will improve, but investment in manufacturing and real estate will hardly rebound obviously, consumption will continue to show a slow growth trend, export growth will continue to be low, and economic growth will still face considerable pressure. It is estimated that the annual growth rate will be lower than 20 14.
In order to stabilize growth and prevent economic growth from deviating from the expected target too quickly, China's macro-policy direction in the future is to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Proactive fiscal policy should be intensified, prudent monetary policy should be moderately tightened, micro-stimulus should be strengthened, and directional regulation and structural regulation should be intensified.
In the next three quarters, we should do the following work:
First, continue to expand the scale of fiscal expenditure. On the one hand, it is used for investment in new urbanization and three strategic deployments. On the other hand, it is used to stimulate and improve investment in consumer and public service expenditures. At the same time, we should allocate a considerable amount of financial resources from the finance, continue to increase assistance to low-and middle-income people, especially the poor, and solve their basic needs such as housing, employment, schooling, medical care and old-age care. In addition, fiscal and taxation policies should make a fuss about subtraction, such as reducing the consumption tax on some daily industrial products, increasing subsidies for household appliances and even furniture renewal, and raising the threshold for personal income tax.
The second is to implement a neutral and loose monetary policy, give greater play to the power of monetary policy and promote stable economic growth. Use effective monetary policy tools to increase the supply of money and credit, and increase the credit scale of small and medium-sized enterprises and emerging industries from both institutional and policy aspects to solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing. On the one hand, we can continue to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates, and moderately increase the money supply in the market; On the other hand, we can continue to relax the financial market access threshold, allow and support social capital to set up private financial institutions according to law, and expand the financial supply from the system.
The third is to speed up the implementation of the reform, and choose the institutional reforms that can promote the economic restructuring and accelerate the social restructuring, such as the fiscal and taxation system, the financial system, the national income distribution system, the household registration system, the administrative examination and approval authority, the restrictions on monopoly industries, and the land, mineral and energy resources systems. Economic growth is under great pressure. The economic situation and macro-policies of emerging economies are also divided, which brings different challenges to China's economic growth and macro-control. The second is to transform 100 million people in shanty towns and promote the transformation of shanty towns and villages in cities where 100 million people live.