0 1? Review of the development stages of new energy vehicles in the United States?
The overall situation is shown in the following figure:
The first stage: 20 16, 2008, starting from Obama's policy encouragement period, from 20 1 1 to 2016, new energy vehicles are in storage period;
The second stage: 20 17-2020, American new energy mainly experienced Tesla? Models? 3. Product strength broke out, and the tax refund policy of $7,500 reached a stage peak at 20 18, and then it was in a consolidation stage at 20 19-2020?
0 1? White House policy cycle of new energy vehicles in the United States?
From the perspective of structural proportion, plug-in hybrid has experienced the highest monthly demand of 1 1,000 yuan in the United States, but compared with the tax refund method of $7,500, this use policy model is not cost-effective. With GM choosing Bolt to give up Volt, plug-in hybrid has been maintained at the scale of 5,000 yuan per month in the United States. Under this tax refund mode, all car companies must make vehicle type planning around BEV policy. ?
Figure 2? What is the monthly situation of new energy vehicles in the US market?
As shown in the following figure, in the long-term dimension, the ratio of BEV to PHEV may always be 6:4, and this ratio may further increase as more car companies launch pure electric vehicle platforms. ?
Figure 3? The proportion of BEV in new energy vehicles in American market
Volt and LEAF gradually transitioned to a very strange situation after they were supplied to the American market at 20 1 1. Traditional car companies have introduced many PHEV and BEV models, but due to product strength, what can be seen now is the model? 3. Model? X and model? S dominates the BEV market. It can be seen that the only pure electric vehicles with a relatively large share at present are Bolt and LEAF, while the PHEV models mainly include Prius? PHEV and clarity? PHEV .？
Figure 4? 20 1 1-20 19: evolution of vehicle proportion?
The situation in 2020, with a model? With the emergence of Y, Tesla accounts for 8 1.66% of the pure electric market and has entered a certain oligopoly stage. ?
Figure 5? American pure electric vehicle market in the first half of 2020
In fact, this number may rise to more than 90% in the third quarter, because according to GCBC data, Tesla's monthly data has exceeded 40,000 since July.
Figure 6? Sales of Tesla in the US market from June 5438 to September 2020?
What will happen in the future? ?
In fact, from a realistic point of view, whether there is any policy change in the White House or not, this pattern is basically unchanged.
Figure 7? Comparison of automobile sales in the United States between June and September 2020 and last year?
1)? This year, Tesla is expected to surpass several traditional enterprises such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus in the US market. In fact, what we have observed is that these traditional enterprises that manufacture luxury cars are the first to feel the direct pressure, regardless of whether the overall policy changes. Before 2023, several BEV models are not competitive, so we will leave them alone in the short term.
2)? For Toyota and Honda, which are mainly engaged in HEV, part of the BEV demand in the US market has also diverted HEV. Honda's strategy is to cooperate with GM to build models on the BEV3 platform; Is Toyota's BEV strategy in the US market unclear?
3)? Gm and Ford first pulled out the BEV of SUV, and then the next step is to focus on pure electric pickup trucks? In other words, the differentiation of White House policy changes may be reflected in
Is it possible to add additional incentives across the United States?
Increasing the promotion of charging infrastructure has a great impact on the use of BEV by other companies.
EPA's phased adjustment of fuel consumption requirements actually has no great influence. At present, American car companies mainly focus on high-profit models such as full-size SUVs and pickups, and cars have gradually given up, which can mainly affect Japan and South Korea.
Policy changes in the White House may accelerate Tesla's overall promotion of new energy vehicles. There are many things that Tesla can do in this family. ?
Figure 8? Sales of major luxury cars in the US market in 2020?
Summary: Except for the special situation in Europe, both China and the United States have been squeezed from top to bottom, and high-end models sell better than low-end models. This is actually a cruel shuffle, or it will be cleared out.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.