(1) The national economy has developed rapidly and people's lives have been continuously improved. 1998-2003, the gross domestic product of our county increased from 5.65 billion yuan in 1998 to 9.65 billion yuan in 2003, and the total fiscal revenue increased from 335 million yuan to 753 million yuan; The per capita disposable income of urban residents increased from 8502 yuan to 14424 yuan, and the disposable income of farmers increased from 33 18 yuan to 4702 yuan.
(2) The real estate has a good development momentum and has gradually become an important industry. Since 1998, the actual investment in real estate development in our county has increased by more than 17.53% annually. In 2003, the investment in real estate was 297 million yuan, which effectively promoted the growth of fixed assets investment in the whole society and the development of national economy. The real estate industry has become a new force in the development of national economy in our county.
(3) Land supply (form attached). 1999-200 1 year, the real estate market in our county has grown from scratch, and the land supply has also increased year by year. Together with the transformation of the old city, it reached its peak in 200 1 year, with 26 projects and a supply of 18.5894 hectares, of which it was used for residential land. In 2002, due to the government's macro intervention, the real estate market in our county entered a trough, and the minimum land supply was only 2.8854 hectares. In 2003, it began to recover and the supply increased, reaching 10.6276 hectares. From the source of land supply, stock land and incremental land account for 1 1.72% and 88.28% of the total land supply, respectively. Since 2003, the national macro-control policy has been implemented, and the incremental land use has declined slightly, which has intensified the transformation of the old city. In addition, the supply of land for commerce, market and tourism in our county is not much, which is related to the structure and speed of economic development in our county. In the past six years, the supply of residential land in our county is 37.35448 hectares, while the total supply of commercial land is only 7.3289 hectares, and the supply of market, tourism and other business land is only 2.382 1 hectare. It can be seen that residential land still accounts for the vast majority of the business land supply, basically concentrated in urban planning areas.
(4) Real estate development. According to the statistics of our county,1998-2003, the investment in real estate development fluctuated greatly. In 2002, it was the highest in history, with the investment of 573 million yuan, an increase of 3. 1% over 200 1 year. The construction housing area was 83. 1 10,000 square meters, a decrease of 2.2%, and the completed housing area was 233,000 square meters, a decrease of 5.3%; Sales area of commercial housing164,000 m2, decreased by16.8%; At the end of the year, the vacant area of commercial housing was 69,000 square meters, an increase of 102.9%.
(5) The real estate market is booming, and the real estate price is rising steadily. Since 1998, the total sales volume of real estate has remained above150,000 square meters every year, and the total sales volume of houses has basically remained above120,000 square meters every year. According to the relevant statistics of our county, the average price of commercial housing in our county increased from 1200 yuan/m2 in 1998 to 2,200 yuan/m2 in 2003, with an increase of 83% in six years.
(six) the motivation to buy a house has changed, from self-occupation to investment. A certain number of residents in our county have changed their motivation to buy houses, from the original owner-occupied to profit-making purposes. According to the statistics of exhibitions in 2002, more than 70% of residents in our county buy foreign real estate.
(VII) The scale of the industry has expanded rapidly, creating brand-name housing enterprises. By the end of 2003, there were 43 housing enterprises in the county, an increase of 8% over last year. The investment of five large-scale enterprises accounts for 24% of the investment in commercial housing in the county, and a number of large-scale, competitive and well-known housing enterprises stand out.
(VIII) The real estate financial industry has developed well, providing strong support for the sound development of the real estate market. From the end of 1998 to the end of 2003, the amount of various real estate loans in our county increased from 17.5 1 billion yuan to 3.7.1billion yuan, an increase of 2. 12 times in six years. At the end of 2003, real estate loans increased by1.38% compared with the same period of last year. Real estate credit business is the fastest growing credit variety in recent years, and personal housing loans have developed rapidly. According to the statistics of Pingyang Sub-branch of the People's Bank of China, there were few personal housing loans in our county before 200 1 year, and the personal housing loans in 200 1 year were only 6.23 million yuan, accounting for only 0.99% of the total credit, while in 2003, the personal housing loans amounted to 85.54 million yuan, an increase over 20001year. With the intervention of the government's macro-control, by June 2004, although the proportion of individual housing loans had declined, only 8.74%, its total amount had reached 89.04 million yuan, an increase of 3.5 million yuan over 2003. It can be seen that the real estate credit in our county provides a good credit environment for the real estate market, and also provides a strong guarantee for the sustainable development of the real estate market in our county.
(9) Housing demolition. The demolition work of the old city in our county started from 199 1 year, and it has developed continuously in the process of exploration, and now a relatively complete demolition management system has been formed. In 2002, the Implementation Measures for the Management of Urban House Demolition in Pingyang County was promulgated, which gradually developed from property rights exchange to monetary compensation and resettlement, ensuring the legitimate rights and interests of both parties to the demolition, and embodying openness, justice and fairness. At the same time, in 2004, the management of rural village reform and demolition was standardized, and the Interim Measures for the Management of Rural House Demolition in Pingyang County was promulgated. The monetized demolition and resettlement of Jiefang Street North Road in Kunyang Town has been unanimously recognized by the majority of relocated households.
(ten) active stock of real estate transactions, improve the housing supply system. Since 1997, the stock property transaction has been active. In 2003, the transaction volume of stock houses reached 474,900 square meters, an increase of 42.70% over the previous year. At the same time, start affordable housing and improve the housing supply system. Different levels of housing supply have met the housing needs of families with different incomes and greatly improved the housing conditions of urban and rural residents. The per capita housing area of urban residents in our county has reached 35.9 square meters, and the per capita construction area of farmers has reached 35. 1 square meter, ranking first in the city.
(eleven) the housing security system. Since 1997, our county has been included in the pilot county of national housing project, and the housing project (affordable housing) has changed the original single-channel fund-raising cooperative housing construction to solve the housing difficulties of cadres and workers in government organs, industrial and mining enterprises (institutions). From 1998 to now, the state has successively issued the construction scale of housing projects (affordable housing) in our county of * * * 250,000 square meters. In order to establish and improve the multi-level housing supply system in our county and solve the housing difficulties of the lowest-income families, the county housing reform office plans to introduce the implementation measures for low-rent housing according to the relevant work arrangements of the municipal and county governments. According to the preliminary investigation of the office, there are 258 households with the lowest income in our county, and 2 15 households meet the registration of low-rent housing (at present, our county is preparing to try it out in Kunyang town).
Second, 1998-2003 analysis of the basic characteristics of our county's real estate market
1, strong support for a prosperous economy. In recent years, our county's economy has maintained a rapid development speed. In 2003, compared with 1998, the county's GDP and total fiscal revenue increased by 7 1% and 125% respectively. With the rapid economic development, residents' life has been obviously improved. In 2003, the savings of urban and rural residents in the county reached 4.696 billion yuan, an increase of 19 1% compared with 1998.
2. The reform of the housing system has been deepened. The housing reform in our county started earlier, and the current housing provident fund coverage reaches 50%. With the gradual deepening of the housing system reform, the enthusiasm of residents to buy houses has been stimulated to a great extent, thus releasing potential huge housing consumption energy.
3. National macro-policies are vigorously promoted. First, reduce the burden of consumption and lower the threshold for entering the market. Since 1997, the deed tax and fees for real estate transactions have been lowered again and again. From 6% of the turnover before 1997 to 1.5%, in June 20001year, 47 constructive charges were cancelled by the state. In 2002, the transaction management fee for new commercial housing was charged at 3 yuan/m2, the transaction management fee for second-hand goods and landing houses was charged at 6 yuan/m2, and the transaction management fee for non-residential housing was charged at/kloc-. The second is to launch personal housing loans to enhance residents' purchasing power. Since the introduction of the mortgage policy in 1998, various financial institutions and housing fund management centers in our county have issued the accumulated balance of individual housing loans of11.70 billion yuan.
4. Residents' consumption structure has been upgraded and their consumption grade has been greatly improved. The Engel's coefficient of residents' consumption in our county, that is, the proportion of "food" in the total consumption expenditure has gradually decreased, from 36.9% in 1998 to 3 1.4% in 2003, which is 8.6 percentage points lower than the national average of 40%. This is a good opportunity to increase housing consumption. In addition, the concept of "one step at a time, one room for the elderly" of residents in our county has gradually faded. Single-room housing is no longer popular, but comfortable, spacious and beautiful living environment has become the goal pursued by the public, which has injected strong vitality into the real estate market in our county.
5. The urbanization process is accelerating. In recent years, our county has actively promoted the process of urbanization and accelerated the gathering of urban population. According to statistics, in 2003, the total urban population of our county reached 84. 1 10,000, an increase of 4.7% compared with 1998. In addition, with tens of thousands of migrant workers every year, there is no doubt that there is a huge demand for housing in our county.
Iii. 1998-2003 Main problems and deep-seated reasons in the operation of the real estate market in our county
Generally speaking, the real estate market in our county has a high degree, and the real estate industry has maintained a rapid and healthy development momentum, but there are also some problems: First, the contradiction between housing supply and residents' demand is more prominent, and the supply of affordable housing and low-priced commercial housing is far from meeting the market demand. There are more large-sized apartments and fewer small-sized apartments in real estate, which increases the average price of commercial housing; Second, macro-control measures and administrative measures can't keep up with the development of the real estate market, and the self-restraint mechanism of some housing enterprises is not perfect, which leads to problems such as illegal development, false advertising, illegal sales, delayed delivery, shrinking area and poor housing quality. Third, the growth rate of real estate investment is slow. The economic development of our county in recent years is not fast, which leads to the slow development of the real estate industry. In 2003, there were 43 real estate development enterprises in the county, and the investment in real estate development was only 296.82 million yuan. Moreover, the proportion of real estate industry in GDP has been hovering around 2.3% in recent years, and there has been no significant increase. It can be said that the real estate industry has not obviously promoted the county's GDP, nor has it produced scale effect; Fourth, the land price is on the high side, and the land supply of a few townships (towns) is lack of planning, and the land supply is too large, which leads to a large number of enclosure by real estate developers, and the supply of commercial housing land lacks detailed planning and is arbitrary; Fifth, it is difficult for working-class people to buy houses, and the vacancy rate and vacancy rate of houses have increased. According to statistics, the vacancy rate and the vacancy rate have also increased with the increase of housing prices in our county. The vacancy rate in 200 1 year was 35,624 square meters, and in 2003 it rose to 5.4 12 1 10,000 square meters. In 2003, the average price of commercial housing in our county rose from 200 1 year 1500 yuan/square meter to 2,200 yuan/square meter. Based on the economic level of our county, the annual income of dual-income families is 23,600 yuan. For example, it takes nearly 7 years for a family to buy a 60-square-meter commercial house without eating or drinking. As a result, many houses were bought by a few rich people, which increased the vacancy rate and vacancy rate. However, the working-class people who really need to buy houses are difficult to buy houses because of economic problems, which has formed the contradiction that the working-class people have difficulty buying houses, but the vacancy rate and vacancy rate have increased. Sixth, the overall level of housing enterprises is not high. At present, there are 43 housing enterprises, of which only 5 are Grade 2 enterprises, and the rest are Grade 3 and 4 enterprises, so the group quality is low; Seventh, the real estate agency is small in scale. There are 120 real estate agencies in the real estate market in our county, and only a few of them are large. Eighth, the operation of the land market is not standardized. There are two ways to obtain land for development: agreement and auction. Because of the coexistence of the two forms, the risks of real estate developers are uneven and the development costs are different. Ninth, the grade of the developed community is not high. Up to now, the real estate development in our county, there are few residential quality products, and the grade of residential quarters is low, and there are very few residential quarters in terms of scale and grade.
Four, to maintain the sustained and healthy development of our county real estate market countermeasures
1, it is necessary to speed up the macro-development strategy research of real estate and the compilation of the overall development plan of real estate industry. The macro-development strategy research of real estate and the overall planning of real estate industry will mediate the long-term policy measures for the operability of our county because of the small administrative area; The expansion of real estate land will be combined with the functional transformation of the old city, while emphasizing the ecological environment. Through the compilation and implementation of the master plan, the overall pattern and development model of "nature-space-human system" can be truly realized. On the basis of a large number of investigations, it is necessary to formulate short-term and long-term real estate development plans and correctly handle the relationship between "degree" and "quantity" in order to effectively prevent the "bubble" of the county's real estate industry. When making a plan, we should give consideration to the "two ends" and adjust the development structure in a timely manner. In the future, we should consider the housing needs of all sectors of society as a whole, pay special attention to "civilian housing", and focus on low-and middle-income families so that they can afford to buy a house and have a house to live in.
2, to strengthen the research on real estate development, improve the macro-control ability. Strengthen the analysis and research of the real estate market, gradually establish the early warning and information disclosure system of the real estate market, improve the ability to analyze and judge the market, strengthen the macro-control ability, correctly guide the investment and consumption of the real estate, and establish and improve the early warning mechanism of the real estate market.
3, to control the abnormal rise in the price of commercial housing. First, according to the demand of the real estate market, we should maintain a reasonable supply and supply ratio of land, increase the construction of affordable housing, and limit the blind development and large-scale construction of high-end housing to prevent the backlog; The second is to enhance the transparency of the real estate market and create a level playing field for housing developers. At the same time, it is necessary to scientifically and reasonably formulate bidding methods to prevent land prices from winning the bid with the "sky mark"; Third, it is necessary to speed up the establishment of a real estate market monitoring system, collect and feedback the necessary information on the market supply-demand ratio and price trend in time, so as to guide housing enterprises to do a good job in market segmentation and positioning, avoid blindness, and help the government to carry out macro-control in time.
4. It is necessary to revitalize the existing land, increase the effective supply of land, ensure a moderate total land supply, and gradually establish a gradient land supply system to meet the needs of different levels of housing as much as possible. With the acceleration of urbanization, the contradiction between the demand and supply of construction and real estate land is becoming increasingly acute. Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately expand the development space of the county and improve the land supply capacity. Increase infrastructure construction, make good use of idle land, reform the existing land property right transaction system, and promote a large number of stocks and low-utilization land in urban and rural areas to enter the market. It is required that the units responsible for land transfer should pay the land on time according to the planned transfer time, ensure the smooth completion of the land use plan, and gradually establish a gradient land supply system to meet the needs of different levels of housing.
5, to improve and strengthen the management of real estate trading market. First, it is necessary to strengthen the management of pre-sale of commercial housing, standardize the sales of commercial housing, and relieve the worries of buyers; Second, it is necessary to strengthen the management of real estate brokerage institutions and standardize real estate intermediary behavior; Third, it is necessary to simplify the real estate transaction procedures and improve the speed of applying for permits.
6. Efforts should be made to improve the overall quality of housing and the overall quality of housing enterprises. Vigorously advocate and guide housing enterprises to create high-quality brand-name residential products, improve the quality of residential construction, and strictly control low-grade and small-scale development and construction. We should take the construction of low-rent housing projects as the leading factor to promote the development of residential construction in our county to a new and higher level. We should constantly optimize the environment of residential quarters, optimize the layout design, make full and rational use of space, pay attention to the full conservation and comprehensive utilization of resources, and build ecological houses, so that the housing construction in our county will develop towards industrialization. It is necessary to take measures to help the superior and limit the inferior, strictly enter the market, and clean up those housing enterprises that have no financial strength and lack qualifications in time by standardizing the market economic order. At the same time, some preferential policies are formulated to favor enterprises with relatively strong strength and good reputation in the real estate industry, so as to make enterprises bigger and stronger to adapt to the new situation after China's entry into WTO.
7, to increase the construction of affordable housing, reform the way of construction and supply. The key points of reform should be reflected in six aspects: first, we should comprehensively carry out the bidding work for affordable housing construction projects and reform the real estate development and construction system; Second, it is necessary to clearly define the purchase standard of affordable housing and reform the supply management mode; Third, we should reform and improve the housing security system according to the actual situation of low-income families; Fourth, we should strictly enforce the transaction behavior of affordable housing and reform the transaction management system; Fifth, it is necessary to strengthen the research on the price supervision system of affordable housing and reform the cost control system; Sixth, it is necessary to strictly control the single-family construction area of affordable housing, optimize the apartment space, and reform and build apartment standards. At the same time, accelerate the construction of medium and low-priced large residential quarters.
8. It is necessary to raise awareness of preventing financial risks and strengthen credit management. First, it is necessary to control the total amount, rationally adjust the structure and implement differential policies to control the proportion of housing development in housing consumption funds and curb investment, speculative demand and excessive consumption; Second, we must strictly manage credit, lend according to law and regulations, and effectively strengthen post-loan management; Third, while actively providing credit loans to land acquisition and reserve institutions, we should strengthen loan monitoring and implement closed operation; Fourth, it is necessary to strengthen the management of individual housing loans. On the one hand, it is necessary to continue to support local residents to buy their own houses and moderately increase the down payment. On the other hand, it is necessary to stop personal loans for buying houses in different places and multiple houses.
9, to standardize the development of property management. It is necessary to combine civilization creation activities and comprehensive management work, actively adopt administrative, economic and legal means, and fully implement property management within the county's towns. As the competent department of the industry, the housing management department should actively carry out pilot work and sum up experience in light of the actual situation, so as to lay a solid foundation for promoting the industrialization of property management.
10, to strengthen the monitoring of real estate development. It is understood that at present, Kunyang Town has a large land for housing development, which has far exceeded the local housing demand, which will affect the orderly and healthy development of the real estate market in the whole region. It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of the town's housing opening. It is stipulated that the right to independently examine and approve land cannot be extended after the expiration of three years, and a unified and orderly housing market should be established and improved. In terms of total land control in the county, it is necessary to appropriately increase supply, alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand, and prevent excessive land supply from forming market risks.
V. Preliminary judgment, forecast and development trend analysis of our county's real estate market in the next three years.
Based on the current situation of real estate development in our county, we can see that the current situation of real estate industry in our county can be said to be mixed, which can neither be blindly optimistic nor self-deprecating. Since 1998, the rise of real estate prices in our county is objective and inevitable, which is the inevitable result of the development of real estate industry in our county. The relatively large demand space provides real demand support for the rise of housing prices, rather than "inflated" driven by pure investment motives. This is the essence of "Pingyang phenomenon" different from "Hainan phenomenon", and it is also the main reason why our county can keep the vacancy rate of commercial housing low and prevent bubbles while the house price rises rapidly. Based on the above background analysis, the real estate market in our county still has great room for development. Mainly manifested in:
1 The development of urbanization needs to provide a huge space for the development of the real estate industry in our county. It is an important strategy for the development of our county in recent years to "build a' one capital, three counties' and build a new Pingyang" and take the lead in basically realizing modernization. "Living in Pingyang, traveling in Pingyang, studying in Pingyang and starting a business in Pingyang" is the goal of urban development, which will effectively stimulate the potential real estate demand in our county. Evacuate the old city, build a new district, and gradually evacuate the urban construction and population distribution to the peripheral areas of the county, accelerate the process of urbanization, and build a development strategy of "Great Pingyang". The expansion of the administrative area of our county brings opportunities for the economic development of our county and provides more development space for the real estate market. According to the statistics of relevant UN agencies, the per capita GDP is between 800 and 8000 dollars, which is the initial and rapid rising stage of the real estate industry. Only when the per capita GDP is above13,000 dollars, the real estate industry will enter the stage of decline. At present, China's per capita GDP is around $800, while our county's per capita GDP has exceeded 1250. In addition, in the 1990s, the per capita housing construction area in developed countries was 60 square meters in the United States, 38 square meters in Britain, 38 square meters in Germany, 37 square meters in France and 3 1 square meter in Japan. International experience shows that the real estate market will maintain strong housing demand until the per capita housing construction area reaches 30 square meters. As a large county with agglomeration effect in Wenzhou, our county has great development potential.
2. The contradiction between supply and demand and structure of major supporting projects and residential construction in our county provides potential power for the development of real estate in our county. After 10 years of efforts in the protection and reconstruction of the old city in our county, the housing conditions of residents have been obviously improved. However, there are still lots of plots in our county that have not been reconstructed, especially the demolition and reconstruction of dilapidated houses in Jiebei1KLOC-0/0.87 million square meters in Kunyang Town. According to the calculation of 25% expansion, it is necessary to solve the problem of demolition and purchase of housing construction area148,400 square meters. In addition, the Aojiang Town Railway Station was opened the following year, and the Ounan Bridge connected Aojiang, Shuitou Town and Longgang in Cangnan County, which also played a great role in promoting the whole area. Although, before 2004, the total land supply area of real estate development projects in our county was 28.7 134 hectares, and the total land supply area was 43.070 1 10,000 square meters, but in recent years, with the implementation of the open population policy, the annual population increased by 0.4-0.5 million people. Although there is affordable housing supply here, it is still not enough. Therefore, it is urgent to increase the construction of residential areas, and the residential investment space of real estate industry in our county has not yet reached saturation.
3. The demand for housing for planning and population development in our county will continue to grow, providing real demand for the development of our county's real estate industry. In 2003, the registered population of our county was 84. 1 10,000, and the temporary population was 38,300. According to the planning data of our county, it is planned that the registered population in the near future in 2005 will be 858,800, and the registered population in the future in 20 10 will be 884110,000. At present, with the investment attraction of the county, the influx of temporary population, the transformation of landless peasants into non-agricultural population, the introduction of talents and other factors, the population growth of the county in the next few years, the total urban population will increase at a rate of 4000-5000 per year, of which the non-agricultural population will increase by 3000-4000 per year and the temporary population will increase by 200-300 per year.
(1) Increase the housing demand of urban population
According to the forecast of urban population, the total housing demand of new urban population can be calculated according to the unified formula:
P 1=W 1·N+W2·R·F·N
Where: P 1: total housing demand of new population.
W 1: the increase of non-agricultural population in the new population.
N: per capita construction area of newly-increased population (30 square meters per capita)
W2: Increment of temporary population in newly added population
R: The proportion of temporary residents who have relatively high incomes such as business, factory establishment and consulting services and have the ability to buy houses (estimated at around 9%).
F: The proportion of temporary residents who have the ability to buy houses is calculated as 5%, and the total housing demand of the newly-added population is calculated every year:
Total housing demand of new population in 2004:
P = 0.34× 30+0.03× 9 %× 5 %× 30 =10.2041(ten thousand square meters)
Total housing demand of new population in 2005:
P = 0.4× 30+0.03× 9 %× 5 %× 30 =12.0041(ten thousand square meters)
Total housing demand of new population in 2006:
P = 0.3× 30+0.02× 9 %× 5 %× 30 = 9.0027 (ten thousand square meters)
(2) the demand for commercial housing by residents with economic development to improve their living conditions.
At present, all the houses in the old city of our county are floor-to-ceiling houses. According to the data in the statistical yearbook of our county in 2003, the per capita housing area of our county this year is 35.9 square meters, and the living level should be in the middle level. However, with the development of economy and the increase of income, people's desire to improve their living conditions is also strong, so it is inevitable to buy new houses for old ones. Referring to international experience, for example, based on the non-agricultural population of 40,000, the annual demand is about 40,000 square meters according to the annual increase of 1 square meter per household.
(3) Investment demand for commercial housing
Because real estate has the function of maintaining and increasing value, a certain amount of investment demand is inevitable. In recent years, a considerable amount of social idle funds have entered the real estate market, and a large number of people have become "real estate speculators". They basically have two or three houses on hand, but according to the current low occupancy rate of the real estate market, once they can make money, they will basically sell them. Coupled with factors such as people who went out to do business in recent years and returned to their hometowns to invest in real estate, it is estimated that the demand for commercial housing in our county accounts for about 30% of the total demand for housing for new urban population and improving living conditions for residents with economic development. In short, from the analysis of the current land supply situation and future market demand, the real estate market will be more perfect and mature in the future, and housing consumption will be more rational.