Personally, I think that real estate tax will have no impact on housing prices. For a city, the impact of housing prices is mainly the change of supply and demand.

Let's take Shanghai's property tax as an example. The calculation basis is 7% of the transaction price of the property, and the tax rate is .4%-.6%. The calculation area is the housing area minus the tax-free area of 6 square meters per capita. Then the calculation formula of Shanghai's property tax is: taxable amount = taxable area * unit price of newly purchased housing (or approved taxable value) *7%* tax rate.

then let's assume that a Shanghai family has a family of three with two suites. The transaction price of the second suite is 1 million, and the first suite and the second suite are both 1 square meters, and the tax rate is .6%.

then the property tax that this family should pay is =2*7*.6%= 84 yuan.

the other price is calculated by rent. Property tax = annual rent *12%, assuming that the rent of a suite is 6 yuan/month, then property tax =6*12*12%=864 yuan.

We can see that the property tax is almost the same every year, whether it is based on the value of the house or the way of leasing. Can this property tax hit those families who speculate in real estate or have multiple suites? The answer is no, if it were me, this price would not make me change my mind. This property tax has not changed as fast as the annual holiday. As long as the annual house price is increased by 1 yuan/square meter, the property tax will be far covered.

if the increase in house prices is not achieved, that is, the relationship between supply and demand does not change significantly, the property tax will only be transferred to the tenant, and a monthly 7 yuan rent will be added. It can be said that the property tax is difficult to affect the house price, whether the house price should rise or not, because there are a large number of people with purchasing power taking over, and the probability of adding new land on a large scale in Shanghai, where land is scarce, is not great. Superimposing the previous regulation of the property market can relax the threshold for Shanghai to settle down, that is, the number of potential buyers is increasing, and the property market expectation is increasing.

Even so in Shanghai, many other cities have a net outflow of population, and their potential purchasing power is declining. Land finance is still the main source of income in these cities, and some local governments have little incentive to promote real estate tax. On the whole, unless the real estate tax is changed greatly in the future, judging from the current promotion progress, the future will affect house prices, resulting in a low probability of falling house prices.