The global currency has been released, and everyone with a discerning eye knows that the era of asset shortage has come, and assets are the inevitable choice.
Pan Shiyi of SOHO China put it this way: A large amount of money from various countries will certainly give birth to many strange things, but as long as we keep in mind the essence of creating social wealth, we will know what to do and what not to do, and we can calmly face any ups and downs.
Obviously, the era of global asset shortage has arrived due to the great release of world currency. If ordinary people want to keep their wealth, they must find out what to do and what not to do.
What should we do in the era of asset shortage? Personally, I think we should be greedy, buy scarce assets as soon as possible and hold as many scarce assets as possible.
What should we not do in the era of asset shortage? Personally, I don't think we should hold a lot of cash, because cash depreciates too fast.
You should also know that the world is still in the epidemic period, and the reason why countries choose to release large amounts of money is to cure the economic damage caused by the epidemic. Now is not a good time to start a business, do business and invest.
In view of this, I personally think that buying a house is the best choice at the moment for five main reasons:
In order to cope with the big money release, we should buy a house to resist inflation, which is the best choice at present and the inevitable choice under the shortage of assets.
I am dealing with the house every day, and I am talking about the house every day. Sometimes I calm down and think about it. In fact, the house has been biased by capital and public opinion. Especially at this time, should we buy a house greedily or sell it out of fear?
My opinion, for reference:
There is no greed, and there is no fear. The key is to look at your own situation! External factors can be referenced, noticed and observed, but the final decision-making point is our own situation.
0 1, what external factors have changed now, which have affected buying and selling houses? Undoubtedly, the biggest change this year is the problem of global currency overshoot, and inflation expectations are in jeopardy.
Of course, this is just some of the concerns of everyone at the beginning of the year. From the actual situation now, that is, in the middle of the year, inflation expectations are not as scary as some big bosses say.
It can even be said that it is just so-so!
After all, despite the high degree of global economic integration, China is too special! It's not that easy for some bad guys out there to pass on the crisis to us and harvest our leeks.
In addition to inflation, prices have risen and currencies have depreciated. Under the impact of the epidemic, the income of ordinary people is also threatened.
You may have found such a phenomenon, that is, prices have risen and currencies have depreciated, but your effective income has not increased much, and some people are even going backwards.
For such a group of people, prices are rising, the currency is depreciating, and their income is regressing. Obviously, such a life is even more difficult. Life is very sad, let alone buying a house.
For those who have a house, what can they do if they sell it for money? Dare to do what? Under the current economic situation, the entity can't do it, the consumption can't do it, what is the loss, what is the investment, and what is the sale? Depreciation with cash?
So, whether it's buying a house or selling a house this year? You probably don't even have to struggle.
02. In addition to inflation and income, policies are constantly exerting their strength to regulate the development of the property market in the future.
The most obvious thing is that the puzzle of "long-term mechanism" is gradually being put together!
At the financial level, the "three red lines" supervision is a very powerful move to prevent real estate financial risks. Even Evergrande, the head housing company, is in a hurry and is trying its best to meet the requirements of the three red lines.
At the regulatory level, "housing is not speculation" is the keynote, and restrictions on purchases, sales, loans and business are concrete measures to curb overheating on the demand side.
The "centralized land supply" of 22 core cities is intended to disperse the land acquisition of housing enterprises, limit the rise of land prices, and adjust prices from the supply side.
"Actively and steadily promoting" real estate tax legislation and expanding the pilot cities of real estate tax are to adjust the wealth gap at the real estate holding end.
The transfer tax collection of land transfer fees, which starts as early as next month, is intended to strengthen the supervision of land transfer fees, reduce the "operability" of local and housing development, promote the stable and healthy development of the industry, stabilize land prices and house prices, and then stabilize expectations.
In other words, real estate will be more and more strongly supervised, and the stable trend of housing prices will be a high probability event.
Therefore, whether buying a house or selling a house, looking at the future property market expectations may not be so entangled.
03. Should we buy a house or sell it now? Inflation expectations have occurred, but the magnitude is not as high as expected, and it is not so terrible. If your income does not improve greatly, it may be risky to buy a house now.
Under the background that various "long-term mechanisms" of the country have been gradually put together, the policy outline of real estate tax has been somewhat clear, the trend of future housing prices is more likely to be stable, and the real estate tax may not be as fierce as expected, and there is no need to be so scared if there are extra houses.
So, now is to buy a house or sell a house?
More foothold or their own actual situation!
If you have money and need it, just buy it. After all, there are many policies to escort you, and the timetable for China's economy to surpass that of the United States has come out. In the next 10 year, China's economy will increase by about 60% on the current basis, reaching 160 trillion.
If converted into house price comparison, it is roughly the gap between the house price in 2020 and the house price in 20 10!
However, it should also be noted that since the long-term real estate mechanism in the future will be stricter, more perfect and more enforced than in the past, the price gap in the future is likely to be far less than that in the past 10 years!
But one thing is certain: house prices will rise more easily in the future!
Don't worry too much about having extra houses, because real estate is still the ballast stone of the national economy. Although the real estate tax legislation is actively promoted, the introduction time will not be far away! However, it will probably be close to 10 years before it is officially implemented, so don't be too afraid.
Therefore, in my opinion, I still focus on my own situation, not afraid of the present, not afraid of the future! Do it if you can, and postpone buying a house if you can't.
What about the seller?
Sell where you can make money, and continue to hold the house where you can't make money, which may be the best way to preserve wealth at present.
Come the other way. You are afraid when others are greedy, and you are greedy when you are afraid. This is the right thing to do.
In the past two years, housing prices in many places have been returned to the prototype. Look at the people around you, how many are still waiting to continue to fall?
House prices in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will never fall sharply. It will only stabilize and then climb slightly.
Other first-and second-tier cities, such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Sanya, Chongqing, Zhengzhou and other places, just don't go up, and the plunge is not realistic.
I live a lot in Zhengzhou. Other cities don't understand, Zhengzhou is still clear.
It is said that the house price in Zhengzhou has fallen. Divide the places! The prototype of the outer suburb fall is exposed. For example, in Lubo, Xingyang and Pingyuan New District, the price of oil has appeared with a prefix of 7 or even lower.
But look at the price of a good school district in a good location in the city center, and it will go up without falling!
Isn't this the same even in Beijing?
Look at the price of Gu 'an, Dachang and Xianghe around Beijing, which used to be 40,000, but now it has fallen to the early 10,000.
Look at the Haidian school district, 200,000 square meters are still snapped up.
So, don't worry about fear, you just need it, and now is the most suitable buying opportunity.
The biggest problem now is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the world has over-issued money and released a lot of water, which is embarrassing. Selling the property, holding the cash, seeing that the money is getting more and more gross, thinking about M room depends on whether you are qualified to buy it.
I have to say that the real estate policy is well regulated. Moreover, some cities have also set up a new method of "m-room by ticket", which shows that it is imperative to weaken the financial attribute of real estate and return to the housing attribute. Then, as an ordinary member of you and me, how should we make a choice in the face of today's domestic troubles and foreign invasion? Which is better, room M or selling a house? Let me give you an analysis.
First of all: if the M house belongs to the investment type, we must choose scarce and high-quality assets to fight inflation. You can look at the surrounding environment, and compare the first-and second-tier properties with complete supporting facilities, degrees and excellent location with the third-and fourth-tier properties. The more suppressed the area, the more investors flock to it, and the capital is the smartest. You can buy it as long as you have chips.
Secondly: it is very difficult to sell a house now. If possible, plan as soon as possible to replace the general property with the core quality property.
Thirdly, the current investment environment is the most unbearable moment over the years. Due to the epidemic, the flow of people is limited, consumption is sluggish, and the real economy is struggling step by step. Holding cash, the currency depreciates at the rate of 14% every year, and the purchasing power declines, making money less and less valuable.
In the absence of a good investment target, only buying the property in the core area is the best choice. Of course, it is also a good choice to invest in your own brain and enrich your knowledge.
Let's take the simplest example. Many of my friends around me were penniless migrant workers at the beginning. By chance, they made a lot of money by investing with those rich people. Some people will say, how can those migrant workers invest with the rich if they have no money? In fact, this is a question of value. What do you have that can attract the rich? Is it obedient? Diligent? There are information resources that can be enjoyed. To put it bluntly, you have to be used.
My friend is smart. She has no money, but she has a smart head and a glib mouth. She just matches people and uses the information gap to make money. For example, she got a set of sources, and she found an intermediary company to cooperate with her, and the cooperation was successful and she got a share.
Then, when the time is ripe, I will follow those rich people to buy good real estate for long-term investment. After several round trips, I am now worth a lot. Imagine that if you want to achieve wealth freedom by working alone, you will have to wait until the year of the monkey.
Finally: Say a thousand words and ten thousand words, high-quality assets are the best investment choice at any time. Only by purchasing high-quality real estate in the core area can we resist the global water release and ensure the preservation and appreciation of assets.
A few days ago, I heard from friends in the group that two sons and an old couple worked hard for half their lives and earned a suite for their children. Very gratified and proud. As the old saying goes,' it's worth the phoenix tree.' Is the house the most important and trustworthy thing in a person's life?
I am engaged in property management, and I am integrated with real estate companies. This is very beneficial to property management. Special housing quality, public facilities maintenance and other work carried out smoothly, and some buck-passing things rarely appeared. Speaking of houses, in the New Year's Eve, there are renovation works in the newly delivered buildings. Go up and ask, the family has moved in. I'm renovating, so I'll hurry up and finish packing early, and I'll move in all the furniture and stuff, and put them in my relatives' homes for the time being. On the third day of the year, the owners began to load and decorate one after another. When the rented house expired, they were not prepared to rent it any more. They quickly packed up the new house and put an end to their worries. From these aspects, we can see that people are eager for a house, and they are eager to own their own house for a long time. They can't wait to decorate it and then move in.
The epidemic situation has a certain impact on all industries. The country has introduced vaccines, and the prevention and control measures have been gradually strengthened. The epidemic situation is expected to disappear in May. With the increase of construction workers returning to the construction site, I think the development and construction speed of real estate companies will also accelerate after the epidemic. There will be a good situation in real estate. As for the price increase, it will not increase too much. Speaking of price reduction, it is only a temporary and partial promotion method. I think it's right to buy a house if you have money.
Are you "greedy" to buy a house or "afraid" to sell it?
First, "greed" buying a house is human nature. If "greed" is mixed in buying a house, it will form a wind of speculation. The "real estate speculation for all" in previous years came from this.
After 20 or 30 years of prosperity, real estate prices have risen beyond the horizon, especially in the real estate "golden decade". The real estate speculators have made a lot of money in this "pass the parcel" game, and many investors who seized the opportunity have also made money. The people saw their friends in the property market and blindly followed suit to participate in the "real estate speculation" army, thus forming the "real estate speculation for all" era.
If people were more greedy in buying houses a few years ago, they are more rational now. With the gradual tightening of the regulation of the property market and the deepening of "housing without speculation", ordinary people realize that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and the main body of the real estate market has gradually become just needed and improved, and fewer and fewer people buy houses for investment purposes. What's more, the house price is already very high. Who has so much money to buy a house "greedily"?
Second, "fear" of selling houses and buying houses is more rational, so what is the mentality of today's sellers? Is it "fear" or "fear"?
With the continuous advancement of urbanization, the central area of the city has been developing to the suburbs. Many people living in the old city have moved to the new city, and then the houses in the old city have been resold, which has led to the increasing number of second-hand houses listed, which has become a trend in many cities. First-tier cities and several hot second-tier cities have gradually entered the era of stock houses.
While the supply of second-hand houses is gradually increasing, the houses that have been listed for a long time are still not sold, but some second-hand houses that have just been listed are sold soon, which leads some owners to be "afraid" of selling houses. They think that the current house prices can't reach their heart value, and they actually understand that what can be sold must be cheaper than their listing price, but they just want to "wait for the price", preferring to hang high, but unwilling to reduce prices.
Third, housing is not speculative. Today's housing prices are very high. This has become an indisputable fact. Ordinary people are no longer "greedy" to buy a house, but people who sell houses are a little "afraid". Xiaohe believes that house prices will eventually stabilize, so it is good to keep a normal heart.
Greed and fear are two natural emotions of human beings and the expression of human nature, but if they are mixed with buying or selling houses, they should not be. Under the control of "staying and not speculating", the increase of house prices has gradually narrowed, and the short-term rise and fall of house prices can't represent anything. Whether buying a house or selling a house, we should keep a normal mind. According to the market situation at that time, we should buy it and sell it. Buying a house can meet our own needs, and selling a house can solve the problem of capital turnover. That's right. Psychological people who are "suffering from loss and gain" will have it and understand it, but if they want to live a happy life, it is important to be normal.
To sum up, in today's property market, ordinary people are no longer "greedy" to buy a house, but those who sell a house are a little "afraid". Xiaohe believes that whether buying a house or selling a house, it is good to keep a normal heart.
Its realization is that many people want to buy a house, why don't they buy a house? Because they don't know what kind of house to buy, and they don't know what kind of house to buy for themselves. It's just that the house is a mass commodity, which takes up a large amount of funds. In their hesitation, many people can't afford the house they want, so they don't buy it. They are afraid that after buying a house, the house will not fall with her, so they don't buy a house. Therefore, they must learn more about the real estate market before buying a house, and they must learn more about the real estate market before buying a house. This is a correct way to open it.
Now investment needs to be cautious! What you just need and improve can be shot! Okay, around high school, or around the subway
When it comes to houses, even economists can only talk about "expectations".
When we see the word "expectation", we know that the problem is complicated. "expectation" can be "beyond expectation", "in line with expectation" and "below expectation". If it is in line with expectation, a new trend will often form, and once it is formed, it will run along the already formed track, so it is said that "those who follow the trend will prosper, those who go against the trend will finish" and those who know the times will be heroes.
When it comes to housing prices, everything is "expected" and the trend is taking shape, not the trend has already taken shape. Therefore, it doesn't matter whether we are "greedy" to buy a house or "afraid" to sell it.
There are great differences now.
What the market situation is, the performance of real estate agents and developers is the most direct. If we are not sure about the market situation, we will know by secretly observing the houses hung by real estate agents.
In a few words, just need housing, don't wait, buy. Buying a house now requires the courage to burn one's bridges. If you don't have the courage, just look at the suggestions of the media. 90% of people will never wait for the best time to buy a house. Waiting for the house price to fall before buying, when will the house price fall to the right place? Everything is expected, no one knows, it is better to close your eyes and buy it. If the house price falls, it will be a loss when investing in the stock market. If the house price falls steadily, it will be stable.
Simpler, don't worry, just measure the following questions:
1, can the house be bought back after it is sold? If you can't buy it back, you don't have to sell it. Why bother?
2. Is there a better investment channel to beat inflation when the house is sold? If you have it, sell it decisively. If you don't, just next to it. Being a landlord may get some psychological comfort.
3. Do you still have a place to live after selling the house? Yes, you can consider selling it; No, it's just messing around.
4. I am particularly afraid of falling house prices. I am already worried about it and sell it. After all, the house only serves our lives, not makes us worry.
1, Ma Yun predicted that "in the next eight years, house prices will be as cheap as onions and cabbages" and suggested that young people rent houses.
Ma Yun's own reality is: sitting in the "Peach Blossom Garden" of Hangzhou 1 1 billion.
2. Cao Dewang thinks that the house price is high and it is time to reduce the price.
Cao Dewang's own reality is: sitting in a house of 70 million in Fuzhou.
3. Carina Lau invests in a house instead of anything else. In her words, she buys a house as soon as she has money. Now her assets are in the hundreds of millions.
Need is the most important thing, if you just need it, buy it under any circumstances!
Since the second half of last year, in addition to the strong housing prices in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, there have been holidays in most parts of the country! Take Tangshan City, Hebei Province as an example, the house price was too high, so the house could not be sold in the second half of last year, and the price dropped steadily! I think this is the case in other cities. Many houses in small counties are not built now, which is enough for the people in the county to live in, not to mention the houses under construction now!
Nowadays, buying a house is more rational, so I can't follow the trend. My friends around me have three or four suites and two children at most! However, the number of newborns born in 2020 is a little more than 10 million, which is more than 16 million in 20 19! The decline in birth rate has become a cliff-like decline. At this rate, after many years, the house will be a burden, and there will be no one to live in!
In the past, some people invested in real estate when they had money, thinking that we should beat inflation anyway. Buying a house is better than depreciating funds, but now this set is slowly not suitable for the current development, and the bubble of real estate economy can not be ignored!
In short, rational consumption suits you!