Fiscal policy is undoubtedly the most effective tool to prevent deep economic decline in the short term, but we must pay attention to the changes that have taken place in China's economic structure and the characteristics of this economic cycle, and the focus of policy should be different from that of 1998. In the process of making every effort to ensure growth throughout the country, it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of focusing only on quantity and scale and not on quality and efficiency; Emphasis on projects and investment, ignoring the tendency of deepening reform and structural adjustment, and preventing new bad government debts from being generated in the process of blindly going to projects. In 2009, public expenditure should be more inclined to promote employment, improve people's livelihood, promote structural adjustment, promote reform, and promote the vitality of civil society capital. Although China's overall financial deficit ratio is not high, there is still room for policy, but the pressure is also increasing obviously. We should focus on spending money to buy mechanisms, strengthen the dynamic evaluation of policy effects, and fully consider the time lag of policy effects to avoid the hasty and intensive introduction of policy measures.
In the process of active "soft landing", China was superimposed by the shock wave of the world financial crisis from the outside, which caused the decline of the national economy to accelerate obviously after the third quarter of 2008. The original series of "uncertainties" to be observed became certain in the main aspects, and the economic operation changed from the previous high period to a new low period, so the macro-policy must be changed to deal with it. The decisions of the the State Council executive meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference on implementing a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy were very timely and decisive.
Looking forward to 2009, the national economy will be adjusted by the state's expansionary macro-policies in the process of continuous decline. The overall policy orientation of economic operation is clearly manifested in maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand and adjusting the structure. At the same time, attention should be paid to promoting reform and combining short-term regulation with medium-and long-term development and reform. In terms of fiscal policy, we can make the following prospects:
First, in the total amount, it echoes with the monetary policy, moderately expands, and heats and heats the economy that suddenly encounters the cold current. In the budget arrangement of 2009, the long-term construction bonds will be issued and the deficit scale will be increased to a large extent. In this respect, we still have enough safe space to use whether from the nominal index or from the comprehensive consideration of the actual liabilities of the public sector. The government's "counter-cyclical expansion" will bring market players to follow up and form a turning point of recovery, and then "retire". At the same time, considering that the growth trend of China's fiscal revenue has obviously changed and financial difficulties have appeared, China's finance has entered a new stage of "living a tight life in a few years".
Second, using expenditure policy to actively optimize the structure, treat it differently, and vigorously strengthen the weak links in economy and society and increase effective supply. For the construction of infrastructure and basic conditions for agricultural industrialization related to "agriculture, rural areas and farmers"; Key construction in transportation, energy and raw materials; The key construction of implementing the regional development strategy; Various matters supporting the improvement of basic people's livelihood (employment, basic education, basic medical security, basic housing security, a series of specific matters in social insurance, etc.); Projects and investments (major projects, scientific and technological innovation and development, etc.) that support the road of an innovative country; As well as the reconstruction after the earthquake, will become the focus of increasing investment. These will expand domestic demand by multiplier effect, improve enterprise expectations, enhance economic prosperity, relieve worries of members of society, and resolve some prominent contradictions in the "period of prominent contradictions". This kind of "supply management" that the government treats differently and highlights the key points needs long-term attention in China, but it is more qualified to increase its efforts during the policy expansion period and do more things that it wants to do or should increase its efforts. This structural optimization and upgrading is of great significance to the implementation of Scientific Outlook on Development and the promotion of social harmony.
The third is to implement structural tax reduction and tax reform to serve long-term market construction and mechanism transformation. The representative issues that have been determined in this regard are that tax reduction is the first to promote the transformation of value-added tax, and consumption-based value-added tax can better enable enterprises to actively assume the role of market investment, improve the organic composition of capital and accelerate the technological transformation and upgrading of enterprises; Export tax rebates and real estate-related taxes may also be adjusted dynamically in a relaxed direction as appropriate.
Fourth, we will cooperate with many parties to actively promote policy financing to mobilize market potential. In the second year of the last round of proactive fiscal policy, that is, in 1999, part of the financial resources raised by the long-term construction of national debt began to be used to subsidize the technological transformation of large enterprises, that is, the "four-two-to-one-thousand-catties" adjustment with the nature of policy finance, and the amount of funds could be amplified at least ten times. During the implementation of this round of proactive fiscal policy, besides actively using interest subsidies, policy financing tools can be more diversified, and more BOT, credit guarantee and preferential loans can be actively used to support agriculture, rural areas and farmers, small and medium-sized enterprises, economic growth points and innovation activities.
In addition, while China's expansionary fiscal policy will be regulated in the future, the further reform of the public financial management system will also be promoted.
The growth rate of fiscal revenue and expenditure will obviously slow down.
Influenced by the slowdown of economic growth and policy reduction, the fiscal revenue in 2008 showed a trend of high before and low after.
In 2009, in order to meet the challenges of many unfavorable factors at home and abroad and maintain stable and rapid economic development, it is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and give full play to the role of fiscal policy in expanding domestic demand, maintaining economic growth, promoting structural adjustment, changing development mode, improving people's livelihood and promoting the construction of a harmonious society.
In 2009, it will be difficult to maintain the high growth momentum in recent years, and the growth rate will be significantly lower than that in 2008. Although the government implemented a proactive fiscal policy and increased government investment in 2009, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in 2009 will be lower than that in 2008 due to the sharp decline in fiscal revenue growth in 2009.
It is estimated that the five major orientations of fiscal policy in 2009 are: 1, expanding government deficit and investment scale, and maintaining steady and rapid investment growth; 2. Increase the income of urban and rural residents and further expand their consumption; 3. Strengthen the policies of supporting agriculture and benefiting farmers to ensure farmers to increase production and income; 4. Intensify the structural adjustment of fiscal policy, and promote structural adjustment and transformation of development mode; 5. Deepen fiscal and taxation reform and promote structural adjustment of the tax system.
On the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the current international and domestic situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, which closed not long ago, clearly listed maintaining stable and rapid economic development as the primary task of economic work in 2009. Moreover, around the main line of maintaining growth, a package of macro-control measures has been launched. Among them, the measure that can be classified into the tax policy series and will become the main tone of China's tax policy in 2009 is to implement structural tax reduction.
In view of the relatively new and significant formulation of structural tax reduction, the following issues concerning it need to be clarified carefully:
First, how to understand structural tax cuts?
The core content of structural tax reduction is, of course, tax reduction-the reduction of tax burden level, but it is obviously of special significance to put "structural" and "tax reduction" together and give tax reduction a prefix qualifier, thus forming a unique concept of structural tax reduction.
First, unlike comprehensive tax reduction, structural tax reduction is a reduction in the tax burden level for specific taxes and for specific purposes. That is to say, the taxes it involves are selective, not an "average force" or "one size fits all" reduction of the tax burden level of all taxes indiscriminately; The purpose it pursues is mainly to stimulate consumption and investment, especially to expand the final consumption demand, rather than focusing on the increase of total social demand in general.
Second, unlike large-scale tax cuts, structural tax cuts implement small-scale and small-dose tax reduction. That is to say, the amount of tax burden it intends to reduce is limited, not large; The reduction of the tax burden it brings is to be controlled within a certain range, not to be broken without control.
Third, different from the structural adjustment of increasing and decreasing, the starting point and destination of structural tax reduction are the decline of taxpayers' substantial tax burden and the reduction of government tax revenue. That is to say, the goal it pursues is the decline of the taxpayer's substantial tax burden level, rather than the increase and decrease of the tax burden level between different taxpayer groups under the condition of maintaining the substantial tax burden level roughly unchanged; The net effect it ultimately achieves is the decrease of tax revenue or the relative decrease of tax revenue as a percentage of GDP, rather than the increase and decrease of different tax revenues under the condition of maintaining tax revenue or tax revenue as a percentage of GDP basically unchanged.
Second, why should structural tax cuts be implemented?
The formulation of structural tax reduction has two special backgrounds. It is these two special backgrounds that constitute the special reason for implementing structural tax reduction.
One reason: we need to cut taxes.
In the face of the continuous spread of the global financial crisis and the deep-seated contradictions in China's economic life, it has become the overriding primary task to prevent the economic growth from falling too fast and too fast and to maintain stable and rapid economic development. Under the current conditions, the fundamental way to maintain growth is to expand domestic demand. The basic measures that can be implemented in finance to expand domestic demand are nothing more than increasing government expenditure and reducing government taxes. Among them, it is undoubtedly of fundamental significance to expand the disposable income of residents and enterprises by reducing taxes, thus stimulating consumer demand and investment demand. Moreover, under the condition that the high-speed growth of tax revenue has been going on for 15 years, and the proportion of tax revenue to GDP has been rapidly improved, tax reduction has more important practical significance for implementing the macro-control decision made by the Central Economic Work Conference to "adjust the national income distribution pattern with the focus on improving the income level of residents and expanding the final consumption demand".
The second reason: China's current tax structure needs to be optimized.
Tax reduction, of course, is a macro-control measure to meet the needs of the current economic situation, but it can't be treated only as a stopgap measure or an emergency method. In other words, tax reduction must have long-term strategic considerations, and it cannot and should not be divorced from the track of the existing tax reform plan.
In fact, one of the important goals of the new round of tax reform since late 2003 is to optimize the current tax structure. For example, gradually increase direct tax and correspondingly reduce the proportion of indirect tax in the whole tax revenue, levy property tax as soon as possible and end the tax-free state at the level of property preservation, implement a personal income tax system combining synthesis and classification, and improve the export tax rebate system, and so on. Connecting the intention of tax reduction with the goal of optimizing the tax structure, so as to implement the tax reduction arrangement on specific taxes, it is natural to "treat different taxes differently" and make "cutting long" and "complementing each other" link up.
3. What taxes can be reduced?
Then, according to the above analysis, which taxes can enter the vision of tax reduction?
So far, the government has launched and will continue to launch a series of tax adjustment measures with tax reduction as the main orientation according to the changes in the economic situation. However, in terms of the actual tax revenue pattern of China and the main goal of implementing structural tax reduction, the focus of tax reduction may be locked in the following two taxes:
The first is the value-added tax. The State Council has determined that from 2009 1 month 1 day, the value-added tax will be changed from production to consumption nationwide. In the final analysis, the difference between production-oriented and consumption-oriented value-added tax is whether the amount paid by an enterprise to purchase fixed assets is not included in the tax base to allow deduction, or is included in the tax base to allow deduction. Deduction is granted, that is, consumption-oriented value-added tax. If the deduction is not allowed, it is production-oriented value-added tax. The former is exempt from value-added tax on the expenditure of enterprises purchasing fixed assets, which embodies an incentive for enterprises to invest in fixed assets. The latter imposes value-added tax on the expenditure of enterprises purchasing fixed assets, which embodies a kind of restraint on the investment in fixed assets of enterprises. From this point of view, the process of changing the value-added tax from production to consumption is also the process of narrowing the tax base of value-added tax. Under the condition that the tax rate remains unchanged, its ultimate effect is to reduce taxes.
As the largest tax in China, in 2007, the value-added tax revenue accounted for 44% of the total tax revenue. Its adjustment and change, whether for the current tax system in China or for the whole tax revenue, definitely has the effect of "taking one hair and moving the whole body". Therefore, the transformation of value-added tax in the whole country can be said to be the biggest tax reduction action that the government can take. According to the financial department's estimation, this tax reduction will reduce the tax revenue by about120 billion yuan in 2009.
Of course, the tax reduction effect brought about by the transformation of value-added tax cannot be absolutely understood. Because, after all, the shift from production-oriented to consumption-oriented value-added tax is only a policy arrangement introduced by the government that is conducive to reducing the tax burden of enterprises and encouraging enterprises to invest. Whether this policy can produce practical effects or how big its actual effects are ultimately depends on the response of enterprises to this policy arrangement. Only when enterprises really expand their investment in equipment and start technological transformation, and really increase their investment demand, can the tax reduction effect of value-added tax transformation really be "safe"-enter the pockets of enterprises. Otherwise, it can only be a "bird in the Woods".
Followed by personal income tax. From 2006 1 month 1 day to now, the tax reduction actions involving personal income tax mainly revolve around two clues. First, increase the deduction standard of wages and salaries. First, it was raised from 800 yuan to 1600 yuan, and then to 2000 yuan. Second, reduce and then temporarily exempt the deposit interest income tax. According to the estimation of the financial department, the above tax reduction of personal income tax will reduce the tax revenue by about 46 billion yuan in 2009.
Recently, there has been another call in the society for further increasing the deduction standard of wages and salaries. There are even specific suggestions to raise it to 3000 yuan or even 8000 yuan. However, considering the current reality of China and the new round of tax reform, it seems that increasing the deduction standard of wages and salaries should not be the focus of personal income tax reform or tax reduction. The basic reason is that:
The current personal income tax is a classified income tax system. There are 1 1 taxable items listed in individual income tax: income from wages and salaries, income from production and operation of individual industrial and commercial households, income from contracted (leased) operation of enterprises and institutions, income from remuneration for labor services, income from royalties, income from interest (dividends), income from property leasing, income from property transfer, accidental income and other income. Although the income from wages and salaries is the main source of personal income tax, accounting for about 60% of all personal income tax, it is only one of them after all. It is obviously not a comprehensive reform to ignore other tax items and only adjust the tax item of wages and salaries. This is one.
The biggest drawback of the current personal income tax is that it is not so suitable for adjusting the income distribution gap. The reason is very simple. The income gap between people is a comprehensive income gap, which can only be measured on the basis of summing up the income of all sources and all projects. The current method of dividing personal income into several categories and taxing different categories is convenient for source withholding, difficult to escape and leak, and can also play a role in adjusting the income gap to some extent. However, the adjustment realized on the basis of lacking the concept of comprehensive income is incomplete after all, and may even be a leak. To make high-income earners pay more taxes than low-income earners and adjust the income distribution gap among residents, it is necessary to implement a comprehensive income tax system-based on individual declarations, all their incomes are combined and taxed together. The second is.
Therefore, in view of the new round of tax reform plan drawn up in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan, the reform direction of personal income tax has been determined as "implementing a comprehensive and classified personal income tax system". Moreover, from now until the end of 20 10, there is only less than two years. Grasping this rare opportunity at present, we should implement the reform of combining the synthesis and classification of personal income tax, so as to reduce the personal income tax burden of low-and middle-income people on the premise of comprehensively adjusting the income distribution gap, which is the path we should choose.