According to Ms. Wang's memory, during her 20 years of "cooperation" with banks, this year's situation worried her the most. Coupled with the expected escalation of interest rate cuts in 2009, Ms. Wang feels that simple deposits will only aggravate the depreciation of her wealth. In view of the fact that bank financing outperformed the stock market and funds in 2008, Ms. Wang decided to pay close attention to bank financing in 2009 to add points to her investment.
There are many kinds of bank financing, the main categories are foreign exchange financing and RMB financing, and RMB financing can be divided into bond type, trust type, linked type and QDII type. Faced with these various financial products, how should investors choose in 2009?
Foreign exchange financing: hidden mystery
Foreign exchange financing, which was a hot topic in 2007 and the first half of 2008, began to become silent after the baptism of the financial crisis. "Zero income" and "negative income" have become the exclusive terms of foreign exchange financing for a time. Now the impact of the financial crisis on the world economy has not completely bottomed out, so the risk of foreign exchange financing is still great. Whether the foreign exchange wealth management market can get out of the downturn in 2009, some experts said that the performance of the US dollar played a great role.
UBS Wealth Management Center's UBS Global Outlook 2009 research report believes that the recovery of the US dollar will be short-lived. Once the liquidity of the financial market returns to normal, the weak euro will boost the European economy and the US dollar will once again embark on the road of depreciation. Lu Qianjin, an associate professor in the Department of International Finance at Fudan University, also believes that the US dollar will strengthen in the short term and weaken in the medium and long term.
In addition, in response to the economic contraction caused by the financial crisis, countries have cut interest rates one after another, resulting in a continuous decline in the income of foreign exchange wealth management products, which has seriously affected investors' investment enthusiasm and made foreign exchange wealth management more difficult. Although the foreign exchange wealth management market is so devastated, it is not without its merits. Smart money managers find that foreign exchange financing is still profitable.
Zhang Xing, a researcher at Puyi Wealth, said: "Compared with the time deposit interest rate (using the foreign currency deposit interest rate of China Bank) in the same period, the annual yield of euro and Australian dollar wealth management products still has certain advantages."
Luo Yi, a senior financial planner of China Bank, also believes that in view of the wide fluctuation of the foreign exchange market in 2009, if investors have an accurate grasp of the market and good technical analysis ability, they should be able to get more benefits from the bank's foreign exchange transactions, but the key is to have a good judgment on the investment currency they choose.
According to the survey, the foreign exchange wealth management products launched in China market on June 5438+ 10, 2009 are mainly short-term products mainly in US dollars. For example, Jin Xin Series Foreign Exchange Financing 0903 issued by Shanghai Bank is USD 65,438 +0 months, and the investment currency of this product is USD 65,438 +0 months. The expected annual rate of return of this product is 0.35% for ordinary investors, and 0.45% for individual VIP customers and investors who buy $20,000 or more. The interest-bearing days of each interest-bearing period are calculated according to the actual days, that is, "actual days".
In addition, Bank of Beijing (7.33%, -0.02%, -0.27%) also launched a three-month investment product in the interbank market, with an investment currency of 09,002 US dollars, an investment period of 3 months and an initial investment amount of 7,500 US dollars. The funds raised by the products will be invested in inter-bank market treasury bonds, financial bonds, corporate bonds, central bank bills, short-term financing bills, medium-term bills, bank acceptance bills, bond repurchase, money market deposit and loan transactions, credit assets, etc. The wealth management bank ensures that the annualized rate of return realized by customers is fixed at 0.9% (excluding bank management fees).
RMB financial management: keep a high profile.
Statistics show that from February 26th, 2008 to October 26th, 2009, among the 140 wealth management products issued by Chinese and foreign banks in China market, RMB wealth management products accounted for about 80%, which was significantly higher than foreign currency wealth management products. The eight-to-two pattern proves the dominant position of RMB wealth management products in China market in 2009.
As we all know, buying RMB wealth management products is a relief. Whether the auspicious omen of the Year of the Ox in 2009 can also make the market of "assured RMB wealth management" bullish depends on the performance of various wealth management products under RMB wealth management products.
Bond financing
Bond financing was very popular in the second half of 2008, and the large-scale surge caught investors off guard. At that time, the fire broke out because the unsatisfactory income of other wealth management products dampened investors' confidence, which made investors who were pursuing high risks and high returns quickly turn around and turn to the safe haven-bond wealth management market.
In 2009, there were different opinions about the investment value of bonds. Some people believe that the bond market has digested the benefits of the central bank's future interest rate cuts in advance; There are also views that the bond market is expected to continue to strengthen in 2009, and the bond products linked to it will also benefit from it, and its yield is still higher than that of bank savings deposits.
Regarding the overall investment value of the bond market in 2009, Xu Anyi, a bond analyst at Bank of Communications Shanghai Branch, believes that with the continuous decline of CPI and the continuous introduction of the loose monetary policy of the central bank, the yield curve of the market is constantly moving down, and it is expected that the bond market will still be in an upward channel in the first half of 2009. He suggested that investors can pay attention to credit bonds in the near future, which has a higher yield.
As for the choice of credit bonds, generally speaking, there are three indicators for reference: yield, liquidity and default risk. Investors should try to choose products with high yield, good liquidity and low default risk.
At present, Wanlibao directional bond-type RMB wealth management products launched by Industrial Bank have achieved good sales performance in Shenzhen for 57 days. The expected annual yield of this wealth management product is 2.60%, which is 2. 10% after deducting the management fee. Although the income is not high, it is relatively safe. If it can be realized as promised, the income of 2. 10% is higher than the bank deposit rate, which is a good choice for short-term investors.
Investors should be reminded that investment in the bond market must pay attention to market risks. The calculation of profit and loss in bond market is simpler than that in stock market. At the time of issuance, the future cash flow of bonds has been decided, and the profit and loss of investors can be regarded as the redistribution of cash flow among investors. Therefore, the increase of some investors' returns is based on the decrease of other investors' returns.
Trust financing
At the beginning of 2009, the CBRC issued a notice to relax various restrictions on loan trusts, which is undoubtedly good news for the cooperation between banks and trusts. It can be expected that the loan trust in 2009 is worthy of investors' expectation in terms of both products and income.
In June, 5438+ 10/5 and June, 65438+ 10/6, only China Construction Bank (3.83%, -0.02% and -0.52%) launched three trust-based wealth management products, namely. The launch of these three products gives investors who want to choose trust loan products enough choice space. The relevant person in charge of CCB said that these three products have achieved good sales performance.
In addition, Bill Trust was also a star player in 2009. Although the yield is not high, it is higher than the bank deposit interest rate and relatively stable, which is still a selling point to attract investors.
Of course, because trust products can be invested in a wide range of markets, including capital, currency, industries, etc., investors must be very cautious when choosing, so as to control risks. It is very important to choose a trust company with good reputation. Experts suggest that when considering whether a trust product is worth investing, it is very important to see which company launched it. For investors, we should choose a trust company with strong financial strength, high integrity, good assets, high personnel quality and good historical performance.
Secondly, choose the product that suits you. At present, most of the trust products launched by trust companies are collective fund trust plans, that is, the specific investment of trust funds is determined in advance. When choosing a trust, it depends on the quality of the investment project, whether the cash flow is stable and reliable during the operation of the project, and whether the project has broad market prospects and sales after it is put into production. These factors are closely related to whether the investor's principal and income can be repaid on time.
Finally, it depends on whether the product's safeguard measures are complete. Many companies often take double or even triple guarantee measures to improve the credit rating of trust products just in case. Projects with bank guarantee, bank commitment to repurchase or bank commitment to follow-up loans have the highest safety factor, but the income is relatively low.
Related financial management
Among all bank wealth management products, the structure of linked wealth management products is the most complicated. In the past two years, most wealth management products linked to the housing market, oil, agricultural products (7.9 1, -0.09,-1. 12%) and other commodities. In the heyday of these commodities, they did bring ideal returns to investors. Later, because of the financial crisis, it lost more and earned less, and was rated as the most by investors.
In 2009, the linked wealth management market has also changed, and financial designers of major banks have tried their best to make a difference in linked wealth management products, so as to restore the reputation of linked products and avoid the comedy of "Mr. Chen invested 654.38 million yuan at the end of 2007 and earned only 36.9 yuan at the end of 2008".
At present, the linked wealth management products are also copying the model of steady capital preservation, trying to win the favor of investors without losing money. The number of products linked to the stock market and the housing market has been greatly reduced. Single linked products have basically withdrawn from the market because of high risks, and diversified linked products are still the main theme of linked products.
Yin Jianfeng, director of the Structural Finance Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, suggested: "When choosing wealth management products linked to the commodity market, we must judge the price trend of the linked target, and the product term is the first consideration for investors to choose such products. The time limit is preferably 3 to 6 months, not too long. "
QDII financial management
The design of QDII wealth management products can be described as a negative role in wealth management products. Since the second half of 2008, QDII has received a cold reception, and fewer and fewer banks will launch such wealth management products.
In 2009, except for Citibank, which bravely launched a five-year QDII product, all other banks held their horses. For this financial product, most financial experts suggest that it is best not to touch it before the bank's financial designer is perfect.
Steady and capital preservation are still the mainstay.
For all bank wealth management products in China market this year, we found that stability and capital preservation are still the main products. Although bank wealth management was hit by the financial crisis in the second half of 2008, it suffered great losses, especially high-risk and high-yield wealth management products, such as foreign exchange wealth management and structured wealth management. However, the expected warming of interest rate cut in 2009 still brought a warm wind to the market of bank wealth management products.
Rational thinking on the wealth management market makes banks more mature in designing products and investors more mature in choosing wealth management products. Yue Yi, President of Personal Finance Department of Bank of China, said that in 2008, due to the credit crunch, most wealth management products issued by banks were linked to credit assets, bills and other products. After the cancellation of credit restrictions in 2009, the motivation of banks to launch wealth management products will also change.
However, in his view, the number and variety of RMB wealth management products launched by banks will not be less than that in 2008. He believes that in 2009, the bank's wealth management products will still be dominated by some central bank bills, medium-term bills, short-term financing and other products, which has great room for development.
According to the reporter's understanding, from 65438+1October 9 to 15, among the newly issued products, the market share of guaranteed income-based wealth management products is 32.4%; The market share of capital preservation floating income wealth management products is14.7%; The market share of non-guaranteed floating income wealth management products is 52.9%. Among them, the financial products with capital preservation and floating income are mainly credit and bill assets, and the tone is still stable and capital preservation, with no new innovation and breakthrough.
Puyi Wealth also made statistics on the recent issuance and income of bank wealth management products, and summarized the following characteristics: the proportion of foreign currency wealth management products will be further reduced; Steady income wealth management products are still hot spots; Short-term wealth management products continue to dominate.
Judging from the wealth management products recently launched by major banks, it seems that the bank wealth management market in 2009 will continue the market trend in the second half of 2008, and the wealth management products of bonds and money markets, credit and bill assets are still the two main investment directions. As for whether the expected impact of interest rate cuts will make high-yield and high-return products rise, major banks have not responded so far.