1, the influence of money supply on loan interest rate
In the final analysis, the loan interest rate is the price of funds. The price of any commodity is related to supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, the price will naturally be high. This is difficult to achieve through supervision. Even if the price is controlled through regulation, it is only a superficial price. At this time, there will be a "black market", that is, the supply of goods with unknown channels comes out, the price is higher than the surface, and the quality risk is great.
The same is true of the price of funds. The most remarkable thing is that there was a "money shortage" in 20 13, and the mother gave less money, which led to insufficient market liquidity and a sharp rise in interest rates. Alipay's Yu 'ebao was launched under this background, and it was warmly welcomed by the market once it was launched. I remember that the rate of return at that time was as high as 7%. Such a high rate of return is unimaginable at present.
Therefore, under the pressure of the epidemic this year, the economic pressure is getting bigger and bigger. On February 3, the central bank put 1.2 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market, and has carried out many operations since then. This series of actions is to provide reasonable and sufficient liquidity to the market, reduce the price of funds and reduce the cost of social financing.
2. The downward adjustment of benchmark interest rate leads to the decrease of market interest rate.
Another reason that affects the decline of market interest rate is the decline of benchmark interest rate. We know that the price of goods is determined by the relationship between supply and demand, and so is the price of funds. If the price of raw materials of a commodity decreases, the final price will also decrease, and the price of capital will also decrease. The price of bank capital also comes from depositors and the central bank, because both of them determine the cost of bank capital.
At present, the interest rate of MLF is determined by the central bank, and MLF will affect the bank's capital cost. On June 17, the central bank lowered the winning bid rate of MLF by 0. 1 percentage point in order to guide the downward adjustment of market interest rate. Sure enough, on February 20th, the LPR interest rate was lowered accordingly, and 1 year was lowered by 0.65438+.
LPR is the current benchmark loan interest rate, and the level of LPR is positively related to MFL, so the relationship between these columns determines that the change of MLF will positively affect the trend of the final loan interest rate in the market.