Whether the P2P industry will fully pay in 2023 has not yet been confirmed. The payment ability of P2P platform depends on the financial situation of the platform itself, the inflow and outflow of funds and other factors, and is also affected by regulatory policies and economic situation.

Since the P2P industry risk incident broke out in 2065438+08, China's regulatory authorities have strengthened their supervision over the industry and issued a series of policies and measures to rectify, standardize and clean up the industry, and the risks existing in the industry have gradually eased.

At present, most P2P platforms have closed down or transformed, and platforms that are still conducting business are constantly strengthening their risk control capabilities and improving their redemption capabilities. In the constantly improving regulatory environment, the redemption risk of P2P industry is lower than before, but we still need to be alert to the risks.

Generally speaking, whether the P2P industry will fully pay in 2023 can not give a definite answer, and it needs to be comprehensively judged according to regulatory policies and industry development. Investors should be careful not to kill, especially pay attention to risk control. At the same time, promoting the flow of information and assets between all parties will also help reduce risks.

Second, what is P2P industry analysis?

Matters needing attention in selecting p2p financial products;

1, product risk control:

It is very important to see whether the platform of p2p wealth management products is standardized, whether there is a set of perfect risk management technology, whether there is mortgage, whether there is a strict credit review process, whether there is a mature risk control team, whether there is repayment risk, whether every creditor's right is very transparent, and whether bills and creditor's rights lists will be mailed to customers at a fixed time every month. These are all very important issues, and customers must understand them clearly when making choices.

2. Platform advantages of the selected products:

The larger the general platform, the stricter the risk management and control. Because of the large platform, every creditor's right will be transferred to the borrower after strict examination. In addition, the strength and scale of a company is also a very important indicator to measure whether a company is standardized. There is also the registered capital of the company, and the size of the national sales department is also a very important indicator.

3. Normality of the contract:

When ordering products, be sure to read every item in the contract carefully and find out the specific meaning of each word. Don't sign the contract hastily, you know nothing about the rules and regulations. If there are risks in the future, it will be too late to regret.

3. What caused the P2P industry to come to the present situation? How to treat this industry?

There is not one P2P industry, but thousands. Being able to live legally is not one year but more than five or six years. It is not a silent expansion, but an overwhelming media propaganda. Not only from the bottom up, but also from the top down. But it became illegal overnight, and the lender became an illegal fund-raising participant. People think that lending has been a kind of creditor's right since ancient times, and contracts have been protected by law since ancient times. It should be said that people who are willing to lend dare to take out hard-earned money, pension money and life-saving money after careful consideration. They all believe that financial innovation can give people greater property benefits. These people have been legal, honest, timid and cautious citizens all their lives. It can be said that for the only time in their lives, they dared to lend according to their beliefs and fell into such a big pit. Who dug such a big hole? Digging for so many years, hundreds of millions of people were buried overnight. What do these innocent people think? Who will clean the chicken feathers now? How can we really safeguard the interests of the people? Can this industry be revived? I think it goes without saying.

This is a liar industry, with network IPC certificates, bank deposits and electronic contracts. The lender's money disappeared overnight, and the platform owner was at large. what can I do?

Try your best to recover the loss, don't delay.

What caused the P2P industry to come to the present situation? How to treat this industry? Theoretically, P2P industry and society are in need. Some individuals have salted fish funds in their hands, and some need foreign funds. If people who have spare money are connected with those who need foreign funds, it will be beneficial to individuals, enterprises, society and institutions

but ...

The rise and fall of P2P is not surprising.

Why do you say that?

First, at present, the quality of the public is far from being legal and credible. Some people who get P2P loans really need financial personnel to start businesses, but there are also many people who fish in troubled waters and want to cut leek wool. What if I meet such a person? Using legal means is basically ineffective, and using illegal means is not allowed by law. In this case, it will enter a dead end-institutions want to make spreads and individuals want to "squeeze" the principal. In this environment, P2P simply cannot survive.

Second, at present, many P2P institutions are mixed. Some P2P may really want to make money through standardized services, but there are also many organizations that have no plans to operate legally from the beginning, just running away under the condition of imperfect laws and regulations. And from the beginning of registration, I was ready to "run the road". There are still some institutions that do not have the ability to legally collect money. They can only pretend to be public security laws and engage in low-level means such as personal threats, PS pictures and harassing relatives. After a long time, if everyone shouts, it will inevitably attract the attention of the regulatory authorities.

Therefore, for P2P organizations, the current general direction is right. If we don't deal with some problems caused by this in time, it won't be long before they make a mess.

Because I have been engaged in the financial industry for decades, I think I still know a little about this industry, so let's share our feelings, whether romantic or not, right or wrong.

First of all, the industry itself has relatively strong financial attributes, which is the most testing part of human nature. Many enterprises start from the ideal of serving Xiao Wei. However, due to contact with too much hard-won money in the exhibition industry, I gradually changed my initial heart, various investments, real estate speculation, high consumption and so on. , leading to unintentional engagement in this industry, gradually forming Ponzi scheme, and finally becoming all kinds of fraud, which is embarrassing.

Secondly, many companies in the industry are liars themselves. Engaged in this industry, is to cheat money, this year or two, or even a month or two to run, but also need to distinguish between right and wrong, do not covet small profits, so that the principal is damaged. In fact, people who know a little about finance should be able to distinguish this kind of company. Look at the paid-in capital of enterprises, the more the better, and the bottom is more than 200 million. Then look at the underlying assets, car loans, mortgages, consumption, or corporate loans to see if the logic of maintaining the operation of this enterprise can work in real life. Then look at the top. This is very important. Professional people do professional things. Finance is easier said than done. There is a saying that is very good. The most innovative financial figures in China are all in Tilanqiao Prison, which in itself shows the risk attribute of finance. It is best for corporate executives to have a regulatory industry background, understand national policies, and not step on the red line.

Finally, the ending is because there is the original sin of the industry, whether it is to be a sincere enterprise, pure or even professional. At present, supervision is being greatly reduced, and industry transformation is imminent. In any case, truly powerful enterprises will continue to develop and get better and better.

I hope I can answer questions for my investment friends, not blindly invest, make money with peace of mind and invest happily.

P2P is not innovation at all, but finance in disguise.

Seeing the symbol of p2P, my heart is bleeding.

Your initial heart is your money, and it is inevitable to come to this step.

There are definitely not one or two reasons behind the development of P2P. In general, the industry as a whole needs to reflect on the outbreak of P2P.

At the industry level, financial products that lack supervision will inevitably have huge problems. This is not only P2P, but also the previous guarantee and the subsequent private placement, which may have problems. Faced with new financial products, it is most important for the industry to establish and improve an effective management mechanism.

At the platform level, the lack of a standardized audit mechanism is very fatal. Of course, in this discussion, let's put aside the deliberate way of making money for a while and look at the normal platform. Because the borrower didn't go to the credit bureau and didn't check the loan qualification, many lazy speculators came in to borrow money and didn't pay it back. The platform has no ability to review and control. Once the loan is not collected, the funds will break and explode.

From the perspective of investors, without common sense of investment, it is easy to be carried away by high returns and low risks. This also shows that although China's financial industry has developed at a high speed, it has not popularized financial knowledge. Many people think that if the platform says high income and low risk, it must be high income and low risk, so they are unwilling to believe it when it explodes. In fact, the industry makes a little inquiry. More than 5% of the annual income is high and the risk is high. Why can P2P achieve high returns and low risks? No one thinks seriously, only thinking about the benefits, but ignoring the risks.

P2P entered China, and it was not acclimatized. Because China lacks a proper financial supervision system, and P2P is booming abroad because everything foreigners do from birth is strictly linked to personal credit, which naturally avoids some risks to a great extent. We may not be able to convince others, but in the face of more and more wealth management products, I hope every investor can remain rational and invest cautiously.

The so-called financial innovation is the innovation of service methods and means, rather than splitting the rate into interest, platform service fee, insurance, beheading interest and so on. This kind of financial pseudo-innovation, which evades supervision, illegally collects wealth and harms society, should be firmly rooted.

4. What is the analysis of 4.P2P industry?

The matching method of online loan house is based on the compiled scoring method and weight determination method. Firstly, the platforms that meet the requirements are counted, and the credit rating is weighted and accumulated according to the determined weight according to the open platforms. The credit level is displayed through the development index, and a number of participating platforms are ranked according to the index, and the results of institutional suggestions are given. Where the development index = brand score × 18% dispersion score × 16% transparency score × 16% leverage score × 14% popularity score × 13% trading score × 8% technology score × 5% liquidity score. The indicators used by Rong 360 are background actual ability, information disclosure, compliance and user experience. The credit rating system of some domestic scholars adopts a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to evaluate, but its rating purpose is mostly evaluation and comparison, and its credit is not specifically evaluated. The rating indicators mostly adopt qualitative indicators and pay insufficient attention to quantitative indicators.

3 China P2P platform credit rating

3. 1 Selection principle of rating indicators

For the online lending platform in China, there are many factors that affect its credit rating, such as platform turnover, the number of borrowers, funds and so on. Whether the indicators can be selected comprehensively and objectively will greatly affect the rating rationality of the participating platforms. In order to objectively and fairly reflect the credit level of the platform as a whole, this paper will select credit rating indicators according to the following principles.

1. Comprehensive

Because in the end, the rating indicators selected in the study should be as comprehensive and systematic as possible, and the true credit level of the platform should be highly summarized from multiple angles and directions. Therefore, in addition to the P2P platform, we should also consider the qualitative indicators of platform management, and choose from both qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators to ensure the coverage of major impacts.

2. Fairness

Credit rating is related to relevant platforms, regulators and other stakeholders, so only objectively can the credit level of participating platforms be truly and objectively reflected. That is, when constructing the indicator system, the favorable indicators of platform data should be from the perspective of an independent third party.

3. Adaptability

China's P2P online loan rating is still in the initial stage of development. According to China's national conditions, macro-micro environment and the actual situation and characteristics of domestic P2P platforms, we should select indicators and build a rating system according to its particularity, and constantly improve it in practice in order to establish a credit rating suitable for China.

4. Independence and self-reliance

The selection of rating indicators needs to be scientific and reasonable, without overlapping or omission, and keep the indicators independent of each other. A scientific and reasonable credit rating index system of P2P online lending platform is useful for online lending platform and even the whole online lending industry.

3.2 Selection of rating indicators

With a development history of 13 years, information transparency is low and supervision is not important, because it is necessary to distinguish the key points from traditional enterprises and gold credit rating indicators and find out the rating indicators suitable for the development characteristics of P2P online lending platform.

After referring to the literature on credit rating and the rating system constructed by relevant experts, considering the particularity of P2P online lending industry in China, this paper decided to adopt the method of combining quantitative indicators with qualitative indicators, and appropriately increase the evaluation weight of qualitative indicators, so that the final comprehensive score can better reflect the actual situation.

In terms of qualitative indicators, the indicators reflecting the background strength of the platform, the degree of information disclosure and the guarantee situation are mainly selected. In terms of quantitative indicators, eight specific indicators mainly reflecting operational capacity, financial status and liquidity are selected for research. At the same time, according to these factors, the first-level indicators (dimensions) of domestic P2P online lending platform credit rating system are constructed, and corresponding second-level indicators are set under each first-level indicator. The quantitative index system of the preliminary framework is shown in the following table.

Table 3- 1 Quantitative Index System and Description

Interpretation of specific dimension indicators

Operational capacity turnover represents the number of transactions successfully lent by P2P platform in a time unit, which is the embodiment of supply and demand. If a platform operates well, its turnover and turnover will be higher in the whole cycle.

The average expected rate of return is the average return on investment of P2P online lending platform investors, and the high and stable rate of return is also the embodiment of the platform's good use of funds.

Operating time The longer the P2P online lending platform is operated, the more stable it is, and thus it has stronger ability to cope with risks.

Financial status Per capita investment is the total amount of existing funds of P2P online lending platform divided by the number of investors. This high value means that the platform is less likely to have a broken capital chain.

The balance to be repaid refers to the amount of outstanding funds lent to borrowers or financiers through P2P online lending platform. The larger the balance to be repaid, the larger the scale of working capital it holds, and the smaller the risk that the platform may face.

Registered capital refers to the total capital of the platform from its establishment to the present, reflecting the amount of its own property.

The net inflow of liquidity funds describes the flow direction of funds, which is the balance of external funds flowing into P2P online lending platform in a specific period of time. This indicator can well reflect the liquidity of the platform.

The average loan term refers to the average term for all external borrowers to occupy the loan balance of the platform. The longer the time, the worse the liquidity of the whole platform, and the more prone to credit risk.

3.3 Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process

This paper expects to combine qualitative indicators with quantitative indicators for comprehensive analysis. Analytic Hierarchy Process is such a decision-making method. At the same time, its own analysis steps are rigorous and objective, which is also suitable for empowering the rating indicators of P2P platform, that is, by classifying and layering the indicators, analyzing the influence degree of each factor according to the level, systematizing and modeling the thinking process, which is conducive to making a scientific and reasonable explanation of the final comprehensive score. The steps of applying analytic hierarchy process in this paper are as follows:

1. Determine the target layer and factor layer. The target layer corresponds to the final comprehensive score, and the factor layer corresponds to the relevant rating data indicators. In this paper, qualitative indicators and quantitative indicators are analyzed respectively, and finally summarized.

2. Construct a judgment matrix and compare each element in pairs to get a comparison scale. The element aij of the judgment matrix is the proportional value of the influence degree of each element on the scoring result, and it has aij= 1/aji. The quantitative proportion of importance is as follows:

Table 3-2 Quantization Proportion Table

Index comparison (the former is better than the latter) quantitative value

Equally important, more important, more important, more important, more important, more important 13579

Median values 2, 4, 6, 8

3. After quantitative analysis of the importance of each index, rank it, normalize the feature vector of the largest feature root λ of the constructed matrix, and record it as w, so as to determine the influence weight of the selected index on the final rating result. Then the consistency index CI is used for consistency test (note that this index is inversely proportional to the consistency result). The consistency index is defined as CI=(λ-n)/(n- 1), where n is the order of the matrix. At the same time, the random consistency index RI is calculated, which is a measure of the random deviation of exponential consistency, and its value is an order-related value. In this paper, the judgment matrices of three qualitative indicators and three quantitative indicators are third-order matrices, and the corresponding RI value is 0.58. The judgment matrices of all quantitative indicators are eighth-order, and the corresponding RI values are 1.4 1.

4. Finally, the test coefficient CR=CI/RI is calculated. The prerequisite for this judgment matrix to pass the consistency test is that the test coefficient is less than 0. 1. If it is not established, the consistency between the factor index and the comprehensive score will fail.

First, the qualitative indicators are weighted separately, and the results are as follows:

Table 3-3 Judgment Matrix and Weight of Qualitative Indicators

Guarantee of background information disclosure of scoring platform

Platform background 1230.55

Information disclosure 1/2 1 10.24

Guarantee status 1/3 15438+0038+0

The maximum characteristic root λmax of the qualitative index construction matrix is 3.0 183, and the consistency ratio CR=0.0 176≤0. 1, so the consistency is acceptable. After analyzing the quantitative indicators of the whole system, the judgment matrix and consistency test results are as follows:

Table 3-4 Judgment Matrix and Weight of Quantitative Indicators-Level I Indicators

Score operational ability, financial status and liquidity.

Operational capacity11/21/30.1634

Financial position 2 1 1/20.2972

Liquidity 32 10.5396

The maximum characteristic root λmax of the consistency test judgment matrix constructed by all quantitative index dimensions is 3.0092, and the consistency ratio CR=0.0088≤0. 1, and the consistency is passed. The following is a data survey of 20 platforms.