When the economy faces downward pressure, the government often chooses to raise prices to "stabilize growth". In previous rounds, the real estate policy was relaxed. At this time, funds have a clear direction, government funds have entered the field of infrastructure, residents have begun to buy real estate, developers have increased land acquisition and new construction, and manufacturing enterprises have seen rapid recovery in demand and increased production capacity. At this time, the credit demand is strong, and the growth rate of new social financing has increased significantly. At the same time, social financing is transformed into the wealth of residents and enterprises, which can be reflected in the increase of M2. It is called "recovery period" in our A-share framework.
However, with the economic recovery, inflation is heating up, the leverage ratio is obviously improved, and the policy returns to neutrality, and sometimes it is tight. Under the austerity policy, the interest rate center goes up, and the demand for social financing gradually declines. In our framework, it is called "turning point". At this stage, the whole society is short of funds and there is no shortage of funds.
With the effectiveness of policies to control leverage or inflation, financing demand began to decline significantly, the interest rate center moved down, and real estate also entered a downward cycle. The economy has entered a downturn. After the economy entered the downturn, liquidity gradually turned loose. However, because the economy has not yet declined to the point where the policy of steady growth needs to be greatly increased, with the increase of the wealth of the whole society brought about by the economic recovery in the early loose stage, there is a state of "asset-like shortage" due to the lack of new investment channels.
According to this logic, the state of quasi-asset shortage generally meets the following characteristics:
First, after a round of credit expansion and economic recovery, the overall wealth of society has reached a higher level;
Second, the growth rate of corporate profits has slowed down, and new social financing, especially medium and long-term social financing, has experienced negative growth, indicating that the financing needs of entities are general;
Third, the growth rate of real estate sales is negative, indicating that residents' willingness to invest in real estate and purchase is declining;
Fourth, the interest rate accelerated downward, and the yield of wealth management products dropped significantly.
I think that if the above characteristics are met at the same time, there will inevitably be a shortage of assets.