Compared with the crisis-ridden domestic situation, Russia's activities in the diplomatic field seem to be more commendable. Under the situation of declining national strength and constant crisis, Russia has safeguarded its national interests to the maximum extent through diplomatic efforts.
I. Economic situation
During the period of 1998, the Russian economic situation was characterized by frequent financial crises, which led to the full-scale outbreak of various crises, and then formed a situation in which various crises were intertwined. The crisis has dealt a disastrous blow to the long-term declining Russian economy, and the national economy is on the verge of collapse.
1, the financial crisis broke out and the banking system was seriously damaged.
From 65438 to 0998, Russia's long-term recession was hit by the financial turmoil in Southeast Asia, and several financial crises broke out one after another, especially in May and August. The Russian government's efforts to stabilize the financial market have had little effect. 17 In August, the government and the central bank were forced to announce the relaxation of the foreign exchange corridor ceiling, and the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar was lowered from 6.2: 1 to 9.5: 1. It actually devalued the ruble by 50%. At the same time, it announced that it would postpone the repayment of short-term government bonds. Since then, the financial crisis deepened and the financial system was completely chaotic: the bond market stopped trading and the stock market fell sharply; Lubu fell again and again, and by the end of the year, the ratio of ruble to US dollar had reached19.5:1; A large number of foreign capital have been withdrawn, residents' deposits have run, the banking system is facing collapse, and even some big banks have closed down; Prices have risen sharply, and the real income of residents has fallen sharply.
2. The financial situation is deteriorating and the country is facing bankruptcy.
For several years, Russia's financial situation has been bad, making ends meet. In order to curb inflation, the government stopped overdrawing the budget deficit from 1995, and instead made up the budget deficit by issuing government bonds and foreign loans. Russia's economy has actually become a "debt economy". By the end of June 1998, domestic debt had reached 70 billion US dollars, and foreign debt reached130 billion US dollars, equivalent to 45% of GDP. In the first half of the year, only 50% of the tax plan was completed, and the federal fiscal gap reached 9% of GDP. The outbreak of the financial crisis made the government unable to repay its debts, and Russia's already low reputation was lost.
3. The decline of output accelerated and the economic crisis deepened.
From 65438 to 0997, Russian social production began to stop declining and increased slightly, but this trend could not be maintained. 1998, the worsening financial crisis led to a further decline in output. In the first nine months of this year, GDP dropped by 3%, industrial production by 3.9% and agricultural production by 9.4%. It is estimated that Russia's GDP will drop by 5-7% and its grain output will reach 46 million tons in 1998. Compared with 88.6 million tons of 1997, it decreased by 48%.
Second, the political situation.
65438-0998 The outstanding feature of Russia's political situation is that in recent years, the relatively calm political situation has been turbulent, political confrontation has once intensified, and the state power has fallen into crisis.
1, two political crises led to the escalation of confrontation, and the presidential power faced major challenges.
In March, Yeltsin suddenly announced the dissolution of the chernomyrdin government, which triggered the first government crisis of 1998. Although the crisis ended in the concession and compromise of the opposition of the State Duma, Yeltsin achieved the scheduled goal of appointing Kiriyenko as the prime minister of the government, but because of this, Yeltsin paid a corresponding political price. In August, the Kiriyenko government was unable to resist the wave of financial crisis and was dissolved by Yeltsin himself. This incident has further deepened people's doubts about President Yeltsin's ability to govern the country.
The two government crises intensified the opposition between the president and the parliamentary opposition, and Yeltsin became the target of attack by most factions and forces in the State Duma, and the power of the president was seriously challenged. Successive mistakes in decision-making, infirmity, inability to work normally, arbitrary, showing its power by constantly replacing important government officials and dissolving the government, seriously interfering with the work of the government and affecting the authority of state administration. For a time, the calls from all walks of life for Yeltsin to resign, amend the constitution and restrict the power of the president rose again. In this case, Yeltsin reorganized the president's office in early February, 65438, and put two government departments under the direct jurisdiction of the president. He repeatedly stressed his opposition to amending the basic principles of the current constitution, weakening the president's power and implementing the parliamentary system, which also reflected how much the position and power of President Yeltsin were challenged in 1998.
The formation of the primakov government is the product of compromise among various factions, and it is also the best choice for Yeltsin to get out of the predicament. The appearance of primakov government ended the situation that liberals were in charge of the government and leading the reform in recent seven years, and broke through Yeltsin's principle that Russia would never establish a coalition government. With Yeltsin's poor health and declining presidency, the state administrative power began to tilt towards the government and the Prime Minister.
2. The contrast of political power has gradually changed, and the center-left power has been generally welcomed.
In fact, since the beginning of the reform, the political atmosphere in Russia has been developing from right to left, or to the middle, which is consistent with the development of economic reform from radical romance to steady reality. In other words, it is precisely because of the unsuccessful economic reform of the right-wing forces and radical Democrats that the social and political sentiment has changed against the right, and the society is facing new choices.
1August, 998 17 can be said to be a watershed, which declared the end of the liberal reform line, and at the same time marked that the right-wing forces that adhered to and supported this reform line had gone and it was difficult to take on the heavy responsibility. Judging from the development and changes of various parties at present, the right-wing forces represented by Gaidar and Chubais have been spurned by people, and some politicians and political forces with liberal tendencies have kept their distance from them or made a gesture of moving closer to the "middle".
The left-wing forces have made great progress in this year's crisis. Primakov and other representatives of left-wing forces entered the Russian government, which played an unprecedented role and influence on the government's decision-making and economic policies, and of course took responsibility and risks for the possible further deterioration of the economic situation. The Left Alliance headed by zyuganov remains the most influential political organization in Russia. Corresponding to the rout of the right-wing forces, the left-wing forces have been further developed and expanded.
In recent years, the endless struggle between the original parties, especially the compromise of opposition members in the government crisis in March, has made people tired and disappointed with various factions, politicians and even so-called party politics to some extent. Therefore, people have reason to expect the emergence of "emerging" and constructive political forces. Judging from the current political development trend, this political force is undoubtedly a center-left force, especially Luzhkov's "Motherland" movement, which advocates taking the middle line, attracts attention. In short, the left and right extremist forces are no longer in power, and the future will be dominated by the center-left forces.
3. State power and state discipline have been severely weakened, and the tendency of local separatism has revived.
One of the consequences of this year's economic and political crisis is that the prestige of state administration has declined and state discipline has been seriously weakened. When Russia is caught in an economic and political crisis, the central government has no time to take care of local affairs, and local governments have not received central funding and financial support for a long time, it is natural for federal entities to go their own way. The problem is that some federal entities take advantage of the self-care of the central government to take some functions and powers belonging to the central government for themselves, strive for greater economic autonomy and even sovereignty, promote local protectionism, set up private barriers, refuse to pay taxes to the central government, and so on. It is worth noting that some situations this year are similar to 1992- 1993. At that time, due to the confrontation between the two central organs of the federal government, the authority of the central government was affected, and local organs continued to expand their authority at will.
4. The residents suffered a heavy economic blow again, and they were completely disappointed with the current regime, and the society fell into a deep crisis of trust.
In recent years, arrears in wages and pensions have brought many people to the brink of poverty, arousing workers' dissatisfaction and protests; Serious social polarization makes the residents hold a strong critical attitude towards a series of government policies, especially privatization policies, and are hostile to those in power and new dignitaries. 17 In August, the government announced the devaluation of the ruble and delayed the repayment of debts, so more people fell into poverty and people were fooled and deprived again. Many people's savings for many years have gone up in smoke again, and they have lost all their confidence in reform and the current regime. This time, the residents involved are more extensive than ever before. Obviously, it is difficult for a regime that has lost the trust of the people to lead the people out of the predicament.
Third, the diplomatic situation
From 65438 to 0998, Russia's political situation was turbulent, its economic crisis was serious, and its domestic policy had undergone and was undergoing major changes. However, it has maintained the continuity and stability of foreign policy. Under extremely difficult domestic circumstances, Russia has made some progress in diplomacy and made positive contributions to protecting its status as a big country and striving to establish a good international environment.
1. Russia's relations with the United States and other western powers are still in a state of stagnation and retrogression to some extent.
From 65438 to 0998, the focus of Russian diplomatic activities was still to oppose NATO's eastward expansion, especially to prevent NATO from expanding to the former Soviet Union including the three Baltic countries. In addition, Russia is also active in a series of major international issues involving strategic and economic interests (such as Kosovo issue, Iraq weapons inspection crisis, etc.). ) and strive to safeguard their national interests and "great power status" to the maximum extent. However, due to the severe domestic crisis, Russia's diplomatic activities have been greatly restrained, and there is little room for manoeuvre, and it has failed to achieve substantive results in dealing with the United States and western powers. Although President Clinton's visit to Russia and the summit meeting between Russia, France and Germany were facilitated in this year, the results were very limited.
From 65438 to 0998, Russia put the fight for international economic assistance in a prominent position in its diplomacy with the West. However, due to Russia's serious financial crisis and the loss of repayment ability, the west has adjusted its policy toward Russia and recently stopped providing a large amount of financial assistance to Russia. The second batch of $4.3 billion loans from the International Monetary Fund has actually been frozen.
2. Russia has made remarkable progress in its diplomacy with CIS countries.
From 65438 to 0998, Russia's relations with Ukraine and Uzbekistan, which have important strategic positions in the Commonwealth of Independent States, were significantly strengthened and improved, and "long-term economic cooperation treaties from 65438 to 0998 to 2007" were signed with these two countries respectively. In addition, the Declaration of Permanent Friendship was signed with Kazakhstan; Signed a statement with Belarus on the establishment of a Russian-Belarusian union country, which is an important step in the establishment of a unified Russian-Belarusian country.
This year, Russia's diplomatic activities in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are very active. In addition to the above-mentioned bilateral agreements, through a series of diplomatic efforts, Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have also established a political union, and Russia and Belarus have established a customs union. Although all this is only written and formal at present, under the threat of economic crisis and difficulties and NATO's eastward expansion, it is a diplomatic achievement in itself to bring together very loose CIS countries and develop in the direction of strengthening cooperation and alliance.
3. Russia's eastern diplomacy has achieved positive results, and its relations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, especially with China and India, have generally developed smoothly. 165438+ Russia formally joined APEC at the Kuala Lumpur meeting in 10.
Fourth, the prospect analysis
Russia entered 1999 with a lot of questions. There is no doubt that the urgent task in the new year is to stabilize the economic situation and then let the economy out of the crisis. This is a severe test for the government of primakov and the whole state power.
Compared with any predecessor and any previous government, primakov himself and the primakov administration have more advantages: first, they are less bound by the president and have considerable power and freedom to deal with economic issues independently; Secondly, it won the support and support of most parties in the State Duma. Once again win the universal respect and trust of the business community, industry and local governors; But also has a high prestige among ordinary people. However, it is very difficult for the primakov administration to solve the Russian economic problems quickly in a short time and get the country out of the crisis. First of all, under the background of various crises, faced with several major problems such as declining output, heavy debt, wage arrears, devaluation of ruble and inflation, the government can only grasp all major problems at the same time and gradually alleviate and solve them. However, there are internal contradictions in the solution of several major problems, and there is a dilemma between the introduction of policies and the mutual containment of effects, so it is difficult to see results at once. To a certain extent, the government should still play the role of "fire brigade": which problem is more prominent, which problem should be solved first. Secondly, interference from the political field has always been a very important factor. At present, various political forces in Russia have a consensus on one issue, that is, to get the country out of social chaos and economic collapse quickly. But on this issue, they are in direct opposition: the right-wing forces believe that the only way to save Russia is to take the road of western capitalism, producers advocate nationalization of large enterprises and banks, and nationalists yearn for monarchy and power. It is obviously not an easy task for the primakov government to demand the support of various political forces, but also to unite left-wing producers, market economy advocates, capitalists and businessmen. Moreover, Russia will hold parliamentary elections in 1999 and presidential elections in 2000, and the "political fever" will continue, which will have a negative impact on the government's economic work. In this case, it can be predicted that the Russian economic situation will hardly improve in 1999, and may even deteriorate further in the short term.
As for the development trend of Russia's political situation, it is generally believed that Russia has entered the "post-Yeltsin era" and Yeltsin's position in the country's political life has obviously declined. But at the same time, we should also see that although many people and political forces are dissatisfied with the current political system, political system and state power system, there are calls for amending the constitution, limiting the presidential power, and even changing the presidential system into a parliamentary system, the political operation mechanism based on the constitution has been established and played a role. Indeed, there are still many defects in the political system, political system and political operation mechanism, and the whole state power system has not yet entered a benign operation state. These are all possible and even necessary to change, but this change must also be carried out through legal procedures. The change of the system has to be realized through the system itself. This is the current political reality in Russia, which ensures that Russia is still in a relatively stable period. Judging from the current situation, as long as Yeltsin does not have serious health problems and does not make big mistakes again, he can still complete his term of office. In fact, the political crisis in Russia is characterized by the serious weakening of state power and state discipline and the emergence of a certain degree of power vacuum, which is the president's own mistake, not the presidential system and the current political system itself. In a sense, a country in the predicament of social chaos and economic collapse needs centralization and strengthening state power more than right and freedom.
As the contradictions between Russia and the West, especially the United States, still exist on many major international issues, and the anti-American sentiment in Russia has been rising since 1998, Russia will continue to pursue an all-round foreign policy of defending national interests and maintaining its status as a great power. At the same time, due to the persistent economic crisis and strong dependence on western loans, Russia will try to avoid confrontation with the West. In short, the basic principles of Russia's current foreign policy will not change fundamentally in the foreseeable future.