On Wednesday night, the United States released a large number of data. Generally speaking, the data were mixed: in February, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, but the core CPI increased by 1.8%, which indicated that the decline in price level was mainly due to the decline in energy and agricultural products prices; In March, the industrial output decreased by 1.5%, which was lower than the market expectation of-1%. Last week, the MBA mortgage application activity index dropped to 1 1 13.2, indicating that credit activity weakened last week; New york Fed's manufacturing index rose to-14, better than market expectations and previous values; In February, the capital account had a net outflow of $97 billion. Considering the trend of the US stock market, US stocks began to stabilize in early March, so we can expect that the data in March should be better than that in February. Because the data did not give much guidance, it did not let the price of gold go out of a clear direction.
In the early morning of Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book. The data shows that there are some optimistic signs in five of the 65,438+02 Fed regions, and the pace of economic decline in some parts of the United States may begin to slow down; Although the real estate market is still under pressure, potential buyers are increasing; Consumer spending is still generally weak, but some regions report a slight increase in retail sales within their jurisdiction. This beige book will provide reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on April 28th and 29th. The slowdown in the US economic downturn is not good for gold prices.
In addition, it is worth noting that it has recently been reported that the US government may publish the results of previous bank stress tests, aiming at stabilizing market confidence. Under normal circumstances, the results of stress tests are generally not published. A few days ago, it was also reported that all American banks that conducted stress tests were qualified. If the U.S. government decides to publish the results, it probably means that the results of bank stress tests are indeed optimistic. This is also bad for the price of gold.
However, there are still some factors supporting the price of gold. First of all, there are recent signs that there are growing differences among members of the European Central Bank on the future interest rate trend in the euro zone. Both the Governor of the Greek Central Bank and the Cyprus Management Committee said that the benchmark interest rate may fall below 65,438+0% and the European Central Bank may take unconventional measures, while Weber denied the possibility of the benchmark interest rate falling below 65,438+0%. The second factor supporting the gold price is that ETF funds are still slightly increasing their positions, and their positions are still at a high level.
To sum up, the gold price will continue to maintain the pattern of shock consolidation in the medium term. In the short term, if the financial reports of Morgan and Citigroup are optimistic, the real estate data released by the United States will continue to rise tonight, and the possibility of gold price falling is even greater.
Actions and suggestions
The mid-line keeps the idea of sorting out, and the steady ones can wait and see for the time being, paying attention to Morgan's financial report and US housing data. Radical empty orders continue to be held.