Xinyi Real Estate Market Report

Xinyi Background Analysis

1. Xinyi Overview:

l Xinyi is located in northern Jiangsu In the northern part of the plain, Xinyi City is the central node city of the East Longhai Industrial Belt, bordering Lianyungang to the east, Huaiyang to the south, Xuzhou City to the west, and Shandong Province to the north.

l In 1998, the State Council approved Xinyi’s medium-sized urban planning;

l The urban area is mainly divided into the old city, development zone, Chengnan New District, Chengbei New District, and Shudong New City. It has an area of ??1,616 square kilometers and a total population of 1 million, including 250,000 in urban areas.

l In 1990, the county was removed and a city was established, with 16 towns, 18 neighborhood committees, and 254 village committees under its jurisdiction. Xinyi's development is positioned as "an emerging transportation hub and business tourism center in the area bordering Jiangsu and Shandong, and an emerging industrial city in Jiangsu". It is the only "three-level and first-class central city" in northern Jiangsu, the third largest city on the East Longhai Line, and the third Large industrial city.

2. Urban area functional planning analysis

n The per capita building area of ??urban residential housing is 39.70 square meters, and the per capita housing use area is 28.15 square meters. The per capita housing area of ??rural residents is 29.08 square meters

n Urban area: mainly commercial services and residential functions.

n Chengnan Area: Mainly with residential and administrative, cultural, and educational functions, taking advantage of good highway entrance conditions to develop the logistics industry and professional markets;

n Chengxi Area: " "Chengxi" takes the economic development zone as the main body, accelerates the pace of investment promotion, intensively utilizes land, and forms the main carrier of industrial development in Xinyi urban area.

n Chengbei Area: Daobei Area is the area north of the Longhai Railway. During the planning period, the main focus is on the integration of existing land to lay the foundation for future development.

n Hedong Area: A new urban area with a relatively balanced balance between residence and industry. It will take about 10 years to build the Wuxi-Xinyi Industrial Park into an advanced manufacturing cluster on the East Longhai Line and a logistics distribution area on the Sulu border area. , a harmonious and pleasant living demonstration area in northern Jiangsu.

2. Xinyi Urban Development Strategy

“Focus on the south, moderately move to the west, advance to the east of the river, and optimize the north of the city”

n Daqiao Road and T area The intersection of Park Road is composed of International Trade City, Tiandu Garden, City Garden, Yijingyaju, Four Seasons Sunshine, and Rhine County. It has begun to take shape, and the famous grand gate Jureong.com is about to be put into use. The second phase of International Mansion, Shangri-La, Barcelona, ??Gorgeous Family, Jinding Famous City, Golden Home, including Huachen Lido Garden and Kebei, which will be built in the second half of the year, is another example of the city's southward development after the administrative agencies moved south. This action fully corresponds to the Xinyi government’s development strategy focusing on the south.

n At present, the only truly mature business circles in Xinyi are the Nanjing Road business district, Xinyi Department Store, Wenzhou Trade City, Wynn Pedestrian Street, Times Supermarket, Suguo Supermarket, and Hualian Supermarkets, etc., and many brand stores are gathered here. This area is the most popular area in Xinyi.

n However, with the completion of the International Trade City and the commercial projects of Tiandu Jiayuan and Shifu Garden Street Shop, a new community business and professional market will emerge in the future. But most of them are just community supporting businesses.

n Xinyi’s residential market can be mainly divided into three areas: the mature main urban area, the emerging Chengnan New District, and the promising Hedong area.

n Judging from the current supply situation, the main projects are concentrated in the main urban area, and the supporting facilities and living atmosphere in this area are also the most mature. From the perspective of future supply, due to the relocation of some municipal government supporting facilities to the south, the municipal government may have to move eastward in the future, and the Xiyi Industrial Park has settled in the area east of the Shuhe River. Currently, the entire Xinyi urban area is beginning to extend its development southward and eastward. .

3． Analysis of Xinyi Real Estate Market

Generally speaking, Xinyi City is divided into third-tier small and medium-sized cities from the perspective of real estate. At present, the operation of Xinyi City’s real estate market is basically stable, and the real estate market has corresponding actual demand. The main body of buyers has changed from the previous group consumption to individual consumption.

The real estate market has become more standardized and mature. The land market has been gradually standardized after cleaning up and rectification. Real estate development management, sales and pre-sales management and after-sales management have basically been put on track. The pattern of extensive operation and sporadic development has changed, and the product structure has become more mature. Due to rationality, brand strategy and high-quality projects have driven the improvement of the overall level of real estate development.

Real estate development companies have enhanced their risk resistance and market competitiveness. The overall strength of development enterprises outside the city is relatively strong, and the competitiveness of local development enterprises has been significantly improved through restructuring and reorganization.

3.1. Analysis of Xinyi’s real estate market segmentation

The opening of Modern Mall in 2001 marked the beginning of the marketization of Xinyi’s residential products.

Xinyi’s residential market can be mainly divided into three areas: the mature main urban area, the emerging Chengnan New District, and the promising Hedong area.

Judging from the current supply situation, the main projects are concentrated in the main urban area, and the supporting facilities and living atmosphere in this area are also the most mature. From the perspective of future supply, due to the relocation of some municipal government supporting facilities to the south, the municipal government may have to move eastward in the future, and the Xiyi Industrial Park has settled in the area east of the Shuhe River. Currently, the entire Xinyi urban area is beginning to extend its development southward and eastward. .

From the perspective of customers, with the rapid process of urbanization, consumers are still mainly consumers in the villages and towns surrounding Xinyi City, while there are also customers who have survived urban improvements.

3.2. Development history of Xinyi real estate market

3.2.1. Development stage of Xinyi real estate

Xinyi’s first local representative commercial housing The project is a modern shopping mall, and its sales price in 2001 was about 800 yuan per square meter.

From 2003 to 2005, Xinyi’s housing prices have been growing steadily. Beginning in 2006, Xinyi's residential market began a period of rapid development that lasted for nearly a year and a half. At this stage, the local demand for buying houses is relatively strong, and the people coming to invest from surrounding towns, towns and other counties and cities have also effectively promoted the rise in housing prices. In 2006, the unit sales price was close to 2,000 yuan per square meter. Starting from the second half of 2007, the residential market entered a period of adjustment. In view of the rapid growth of housing prices in the previous year and a half, some home buyers began to enter a wait-and-see period, and the growth of housing prices also entered a relatively gentle stage. However, in the second half of 2008 and 2009, it began to rise across the board.

Due to the late start of Xinyi’s housing market, which experienced explosive growth in 2006 and 2007, as well as a nationwide surge in 2009, the compound growth rate of housing prices in the past four years has reached as high as 50%. At present, the average sales price of real estate in the main urban area has exceeded 4,300 yuan/㎡ per square meter, and the unit price of the highest project apartment has exceeded 5,800 yuan/㎡.

3.2.2. Physical trajectory of Xinyi real estate development

Residential projects are distributed along the current main axis of the city, Zhongwu Road, to Xinhua Road in the west and Linshu Road in the east; to the north is the railway station As the starting point, it gradually extends to the south; to the south, it currently develops into the administrative office area. Originally, the new address of the Xinyi government was chosen to be in the south of the city. Later, after the city leadership team was changed, it was moved to Hedong.

Urban trajectory’s judgment on real estate:

In the future, the price of ordinary residential projects will be high in the central business district or along the river landscape belt, while prices in the surrounding areas will gradually decline. In the central administrative district and There will be local high points on both sides of the Shu River (the only place in Xinyi where high-end projects will be produced).

The existing commercial center status will not be shaken within 4 years, and other commercial sub-centers will only be created east of the Shuhe River (the obstruction of the river will allow Hedong District to create its own regional commercial center in the future).

3.2.3. Analysis of the development direction planned by the government

In 2003, the permanent population of the urban area was 149,600, and now it has reached 250,000; in five years, the urban area will expand its population by 100,000, and the government targets 2010 Urbanization is 50%, and the urban population is 500,000. But at present, it seems that most of them are just slogans or satellite launches.

The demolition in the city center area has entered the final stage. The original demolition has basically ended, there are not many new actions, and the future transformation of the central city is unclear;

Based on the average household population of 3.1, 20 % of households have demand for improved housing due to demolition in 4 years. Once the demand changes in 4 years, there will be a demand for 2 million square meters of housing; however, the government in this part of the country has basically arranged affordable housing.

Urbanization requires the urban area to expand by 250,000 people in the next two years. Based on the above calculations, the annual rigid regional demand for linear release will reach 5 million square meters, which can basically be absorbed by the current real estate construction in Xinyi. If there is a large supply of land, there will be pressure in the future.

Judgment: Based on the current supply analysis, the regional market will be basically fully saturated in the next four years.

3.2.4. Forecast analysis of future market supply

According to the forecast of future supply of Xinyi’s residential market, supply will increase year by year in the next few years. In 2011, it reached a peak, mainly because the land sold in 2008 increased compared with previous years, and the land supply will slow down slightly in the future. According to the local construction cycle of 2 to 3 years, there will be a peak of residential completion in 2011. Supply will begin to decline after 2011 and is expected to return to a more stable trend.

Due to the intensity and influence of this macro-control, property markets across the country have rapidly cooled down, and Xinyi’s residential market is no exception. It is expected that this round of macro-control has caused the real estate market to enter an adjustment cycle, and the market is expected to maintain a relatively flat and stable trend in the next 2 to 3 years. After that, we expect that the residential market will become more transparent and standardized, and the entire residential market will move towards a stage of healthier and sustainable development.

Overall comments:

l The southern and eastern districts of Xinyi have entered a stage of rapid construction and development; the demand for demolition caused by urban upgrading will stimulate the low-end market; it will lead to huge differences in the customer base of products in some sectors , affecting the price increase of mid-to-high-end products and sector influence;

l Rigid demand is strong, and the fundamentals will not change in a few years; the macro-control in 2008 has led to a wait-and-see approach to supply and demand in 2008. Due to the engineering Due to hysteresis, the accumulated rigid demand will be released intensively in 2009. This is the real reason why market supply and sales were booming in 2009. However, with the improvement of construction progress, increase in land supply, and fine-tuning of policies, the market after 2011 will experience partial oversupply.

l Judgment of real estate trends is in the rapid start-up stage; eastward may be the general direction of residence in the future, along the Shuhe River is the direction of quality projects, and commerce will still be centered on the current central business district, which is also the supporting urban life. Only when the city becomes bigger and bigger can the power source be stimulated to expand to the surrounding areas (the driving force for urban immigration in the expansion of small and medium-sized cities is the upgrading and transformation of the central business district)

l The main consumer group is still the residents of surrounding rural towns. , the main purpose of going to the city is for their children's education and marriage. For them, price is also an important consideration, and low-priced products are in high demand.

l As for the residents of Xinyi City, because they feel that housing prices are high, there are also many consumers who are holding on to their money to wait and see.