According to media reports such as "Shanghai Securities News", some small and medium-sized commercial banks in Shanghai have recently asked their branches to encourage mortgage customers to repay their mortgage loans in advance in order to alleviate the pressure on their housing loan balances, and even provide relief for early repayment penalties. discount.

In addition, there are rumors that the current preferential housing loan interest rates below 90% off in the two first-tier cities of Beijing and Shanghai have completely disappeared, and some commercial banks have approved housing loan preferential interest rates below 95% off. All rights are transferred to the branch level. There is also news that banks no longer accept 30-year home mortgage loans and have reduced the maximum term to 25 years.

There are signs of a comprehensive tightening of mortgage loans. Is the property market about to change? In this regard, some industry experts said that although they do not have the ability or qualifications to refute rumors, the above statement is not groundless, but has logic to follow. Under the current background of “deleveraging and controlling risks”, it is not surprising that news of tightening of mortgage loans frequently spread in the property market after the Spring Festival.

For a long time, how much housing prices can rise depends on the tightness of mortgage policies in that year. From the beginning of 2015 to September 2016, my country's monetary policy showed a state of overall easing, which made housing prices in first- and second-tier cities across the country start to go crazy. Jump up. The central bank's current monetary policy is "stable and neutral," which means that housing loan policies have been tightened across the board. But no one expected that just after the New Year, the central bank would begin to withdraw currency liquidity.

So, why is the central bank starting to tighten housing loans now? In other words, is monetary policy turning to "stable and neutral" and no longer loose? There are many answers to this question. The main reason is that in order to maintain the bottom line of preventing systemic financial risks, the central bank needs to regulate the flow of money. The targets of regulation are mainly aimed at the financial market's "diverting from reality to virtual reality", "speculating money with money" and wanton Leverage behavior.

For banks, in addition to policy "window guidance", the motivation for tightening housing loans may also be the pressure of a high loan-to-deposit ratio (total loans/total deposits). Commercial banks aim to make profits. From a profit perspective, the higher the loan-to-deposit ratio, the better, because interest on deposits means costs, while interest on loans means income. The higher the loan-to-deposit ratio, the stronger the bank's profitability.

However, if the loan-to-deposit ratio is too high and the bank lends too much money, the risk it bears will be higher. According to data disclosed by the central bank in January, the national RMB loan balance in 2016 was 106.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%. According to calculations by S&P Global, as of the end of last year, including bank financing and shadow banking and other factors, the bank's loan-to-deposit ratio had exceeded 80, and was rising at an annual growth rate of 6.

If we continue to lend at this rate, in a few years, the money loaned out by banks will be as much as our own deposits. This is obviously a dangerous signal. Therefore, banks are now cautious in issuing housing loans, and it is even better for people who already have housing loans to repay them in advance, which can reduce the risk of their loan-to-deposit ratio. So, should we buy a house in 2017?

First of all, for young people who want to buy a house to live in now, they still need to think carefully before buying a house. The future will be a period of rising mortgage costs. Can you afford the pressure of repaying the loan? For example, programmer Xiao Wang earns a lot of money and is interested in a 2.6 million house in Songjiang District, Shanghai. The repayment method is equal principal and interest.

If Xiao Wang follows the housing loan environment when housing loans are relatively loose, after making a down payment of 600,000, he will have to repay the remaining 2 million balance in 360 periods over 30 years. The loan interest rate will be at the benchmark Based on the interest rate and adding a 95% discount, Mr. Wang needs to repay a loan of 3,714,743 yuan, with a monthly repayment of 10,319 yuan.

Now that the housing loan policy has been tightened, the commercial loan interest rate is still 4.9 without discounts, and the bank only agrees to give Xiao Wang a loan for 25 years, so Mr. Wang needs to repay a loan of 3,472,672 yuan. Although Xiao Wang lost 240,000 yuan in mortgage payments, but needed to repay 11,576 yuan per month. This means that Xiao Wang has to pay 1,200 yuan more in mortgage payments every month than before. Under this circumstance, Xiao Wang retreated and chose to continue to wait and see, hoping that the housing price bubble would be cleared soon.

Secondly, some people believe that although housing loans are tightened, housing prices and transaction volume will inevitably decline, but the price decline will definitely be limited. Out of the need to stabilize growth and control risks, monetary easing will still remain in the future. Will continue, Yangma will not really let housing prices fall deeply.

However, the author believes that it is inevitable that real estate will enter a period of deep adjustment. If real estate continues to be leveraged, it will cause great risks. The question now is how to gradually and slowly reduce the high housing prices to a range acceptable to the people and avoid major systemic financial risks. This is the huge challenge facing the Chinese economy this year. Therefore, home buyers who hope that housing prices in hot cities will bottom out in the short term must be prepared for a protracted war.

Finally, we would like to remind home buyers who have repaid loans for many years not to rush to the bank for early repayment just because of the discounted handling fees. Unless you are repaying the loan in equal amounts, most of the loans have already been repaid. It's almost done, there is a small amount of debt left, and you have enough funds in hand, then it is a good choice to pay it back to the bank earlier.

(The above answer was published on 2017-02-15, please refer to the actual relevant current house purchase policies)

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