On November 18, the National Bureau of Statistics released residential sales price statistics for 70 large and medium-sized cities in October 2017. Data show that the price of new houses in the hot city of Nanjing has been correcting for eight consecutive months, and in November there was even a year-on-year decline for the first time in a year, with house prices falling 1.1 percentage points from a year ago. However, is the decline in data the truth about the property market? To this end, the reporter went to once-hot cities to revisit. The first cities visited were Nanjing, Suzhou, Xiamen, and Hefei, which were once known as the "Four Little Dragons in Housing Prices." Through on-the-spot observations, the reporter tried to restore the true nature of the current property market. scene.
The beautiful land of Jiangnan, the imperial state of Jinling. The meandering wind brings green water, and leads to the Zhulou.
At 10 o'clock on November 20, there was a buzz of people in front of the Minmetals Yanshanju building in the east of Nanjing. Starting from the Zhongling Street subway station of Metro Line 2 and approaching Liuying West Road, there are cars parked on both sides of the road about 500 meters away. There were many white-collar couples in the crowd, as well as elderly people with white hair. They were chatting with each other with expectations and joy on their faces. Being here to participate in the housing selection proved that they were already the winners of the lottery.
Minmetals Chongwen Jincheng launched 399 new houses this time, attracting more than 2,000 people to register for the lottery. The property is located in Hexi New Town, southwest of Nanjing. One of the reasons why there is such a huge crowd of people buying houses is that the opening unit price of new houses is about 350 million yuan/square meter, while the unit price of surrounding second-hand new houses is about 50,000 yuan/square meter.
This is one of the 10 real estate projects launched in Nanjing Hexi New Town in mid-to-late November (18th-21st). In just five days, almost all of the more than 3,000 properties that were launched for sale were sold out, and these properties all required a down payment of more than 80%.
The housing selection site at Minmetals Chongwen Jincheng was full at 10 a.m. on November 20. The station was full of people.
A senior home buyer who was supported to buy a house
The property that was launched that day belongs to the school district of Nanjing Foreign Languages ??School Hexi Branch. The concept of a house in a school district adds another layer of attraction.
At 10:22, a gentleman with a number in the 20s came out of the subscription hall and was immediately surrounded by waiting buyers asking about the subscription status. "There were five people in a group, so there was no time to think. The salesperson directly asked me what area to choose, which building and rooms, and then paid a deposit of 500,000 yuan. The whole process only took about 2 minutes." He chose a 90-square-meter apartment. house type.
An octogenarian stood in the crowd for dozens of minutes. With the help of a junior, he walked out of the crowd and rested on the roadside. At the scene, I saw many gray-haired elderly people standing in front of the sales office. These elderly people came because they were qualified to buy houses. They signed the house purchase contract. As for the payment, it was a matter for their children and grandchildren.
Nanjing’s current housing purchase restriction policy stipulates that within the main urban area of ??Nanjing (excluding Liuhe District, Lishui District, and Gaochun District), sales to households registered in the city that already own two or more houses are suspended. housing. In Liuhe District, Lishui District, and Gaochun District, the sale of housing, including newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing, to non-city registered residents who already own one or more houses is suspended. When non-Nanjing registered residents apply to purchase their first home, they should provide income tax certificates or social insurance certificates for at least two years.
This makes many home buyers who already own multiple houses think of the "house tickets" of their parents or even their grandfathers. "Anyway, it's already 80% of the down payment. It doesn't matter whether you can get a loan." Xu Nan (pseudonym), who already owns 5 houses in Nanjing, said this. Xu Nan is a native of Nanjing. He used his father's qualifications to buy a house and won the lottery this time. I got the room number of Yanlord Oasis New Island, another real estate project in Hexi.
Another slightly younger woman drove to pick up her grandma to choose a house. She used the ID cards of several elderly people in her family to win the lottery, and her grandma happened to win.
Many old people were waiting outside the opening venue for their numbers to be called.
Nanjing Hexi New City is located in the southwest of the main city of Nanjing, starting from Sancha River in the north, Qinhuai New River in the south, Yangtze River in the west and Qinhuai River and Nanhe River in the east. The main body is located in Jianye District, with a total area of About 94 square kilometers.
Among them, the land area is 56 square kilometers, and Jiangxinzhou, Qianzhou and the river surface are 38 square kilometers. It is one of the main developed economic zones in Nanjing.
At present, the northern 20 square kilometers of Hexi New City have been basically completed around 2000, the central 21 square kilometers have basically taken shape with the help of the 10th National Games and the Fourth World Urban Forum; the southern 15 square kilometers are under the Youth Olympic Games Before the meeting, the construction framework was fully launched. Jiangxinzhou, a 15-square-kilometer area in the west, is cooperating with Singapore to develop and build a Sino-Singapore ecological science and technology island.
According to Nanjing City’s further regulatory requirements for the real estate market in May this year, some land parcels in Hexi New City, Jiangbei New District, Southern New City and other areas along the Jiangning and Xianlin subway lines have adopted “limited sales objects, limited "House prices, limited housing types, limited transfers, limited sales methods, and competitive land prices" are the transfer methods. The Paper has learned that the average real estate price in the central part of Hexi New Town is limited to 45,000 yuan/square meter, and the average real estate price in the south is limited to 35,000 yuan/square meter.
The reporter consulted the 21st Century Real Estate agency near Minmetals Chongwen Jincheng real estate and learned that the monthly rent for a 90-square-meter apartment is between 3,500 yuan and 4,500 yuan. Minmetals Chongwen Jincheng first entered the market in April 2014, with an opening price of about 23,500 yuan/square meter. The last time it was promoted was in May 2016, with a unit price of 35,000 yuan/square meter, which is consistent with the unit price this time. During this period of more than a year, the price of surrounding second-hand houses has risen to about 50,000 yuan/square meter, which makes the price per square meter upside down by 15,000 yuan.
Choose the largest house type: you will earn money if you buy it
Aunt Sun, who is in her fifties, said, "I bought it first to see if the school district is good. If it is good, my My grandson can also live there in the future. "She and her in-laws won the lottery and can buy two houses this time. They were not prepared to give up any of them and planned to pool some money to buy them all.
Since the "luck" of drawing a number is rare, as long as the home buyer has the qualifications and funds to buy a house, he or she plans to buy as much area as possible, which makes almost everyone's main goal when choosing a house. The bigger the room, the better.
The third phase of Yanlord Oasis New Island Jiangfengyuan subscribed by Xu Nan is located in Jiangxinzhou. This time, 636 units are listed, with two-bedroom units of 88 square meters, 128, 135, and 136 square meters. Three-bedroom units, the average opening price is 36,000 yuan/square meter. He and his sister are both owners of the nearby Yanlord Jiangwan City. The current listing price of Jiangwan City on the intermediary website is that the unit price of the third and fourth phases is between 65,000 and 75,000 yuan. "I went out at 8 o'clock in the morning, and the sales center was already full of cars," he said.
The reporter started from Xinjiekou, Nanjing City, took Metro Line 2 for 8 stops, transferred to Metro Line 10 for 4 stops at Yuantong Station, and arrived at Jiangxinzhou Station, which took about 30 minutes. There are more than a dozen cars parked on Zhongxin Avenue in front of the sales office, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and other luxury cars. The security guard said, "Yesterday, the road in front of the door was full of parking. There were also cars going around the community, all looking at the houses."
No. 220, Yanlord Oasis New Island Home buyers are scheduled to choose houses in the morning, those before No. 420 in the afternoon, and those after No. 420 will all choose houses after 7 p.m. The 80% down payment is required to be paid on November 19, the day of house selection. Xu Nan chose a room at night, and he was a little worried that when it was his turn, all the large rooms had been selected.
The notice in the sales office shows that 80% of the down payment must be paid on the same day.
In the sales office, buyers looking at the sand table are making final preparations for choosing a house. Some home buyers list the house types and floors on paper and carefully select and determine the final order. They discussed, "You have to buy it no matter what, invest and live in it. If you win the lottery, it will at least have the function of investment. If you live in it for yourself, it depends on whether the floor area of ??the optional house is ideal." "It is a rare opportunity to limit the price of new houses. Second-hand houses are at least 10,000 yuan cheaper per square meter, and you can earn millions or even millions of yuan by luck. Moreover, it is in Hexi and is well planned. It is a hot spot in Nanjing. It is good for retirement and there is no need to worry about changing hands." Someone else joked. , "I don't know what type of apartment it is. The one that changes hands quickly and appreciates in value quickly."
Mr. Huang, the owner of the second phase of Oasis New Island, also won the lottery this time and wants to buy one in the third phase. A house for the elderly at home.
The house he lives in in the second phase is 180 square meters, and the unit price when he bought it two years ago was 26,000 yuan. He said: "You can buy as much as you want. There are no more opportunities here. We just sold a 180-square-meter second-hand house for 8.8 million yuan, and the unit price is already 49,000 yuan."
Work Staff posted red dots in front of the "houses" that had been subscribed. On the afternoon of November 19, the selection of large houses had basically been completed.
At 7:40 pm, Xu Nan subscribed for a 135-square-meter house on the third floor, which is the second largest unit in the building. At this time, most houses have been marked with red dots (representing that they have been subscribed), and large house types such as 136 square meters and 135 square meters have basically been selected. Among the next house buyers, some have won the lottery. Several people chose to give up and planned to use their only "room tickets" on the properties at the front of the ranking, while the buyers who only picked one number bought a house with an area of ??88 square meters.
At 10 p.m., the house selection in Yanlord Oasis New Island is still going on, and new people are joining the owner group established by home buyers from time to time. After 636 numbers, about a hundred home buyers gave up the subscription, or chose other properties, or the apartment layout was not ideal. No. 828 became the last number to subscribe for a house.
The reporter saw on the Nanjing Online Real Estate website run by the Nanjing Housing Security and Real Estate Bureau that in the five days from November 17 to November 22, the number of commercial housing units available for sale in Jianye District dropped from 4,886 to 1,896. , a reduction of nearly 3,000 units.
From the real estate situation compiled by the reporter, we can see that Poly Tianyue, which has the highest winning rate, can be selected by almost all registered buyers. However, 120 of the Poly Tianyue house types are 235 square meters. The large flat floor, with a total price of tens of millions of yuan, was sold out on the opening day.
Chaos: If housing prices don’t go up, no one will buy them
The new housing products to be launched in the future in Hexi will be mainly large flat floors, and they will all be high-priced plots, including 7 complexes with high total prices. land and 3 residential plots, and the floor price of residential plots is 37,000-45,000 yuan/square meter, which is almost the current sales price of real estate projects in Hexi.
These 10 real estate projects in Hexi have 3,177 units, with more than 14,000 registration numbers (including duplicates), and the average winning rate is less than 23. At 8:00 on November 15, different locations simultaneously In order to increase the probability of winning, some people go out early in the morning and rush to the next registration location after registering; some families mobilize their families to go to different properties to queue up to register. A young couple told The Paper that there were the most people interested in Kaisa's real estate, and it was almost 12 o'clock in the evening when all registrations were completed.
Since different banks have different capital verification requirements for each property, and the funds cannot be moved, this means that if you want to register more numbers or try your luck with multiple properties, you need to prepare multiple funds. According to the reporter's understanding, the capital verification threshold for registering an account is mostly more than 2 million yuan, with a maximum of 4.3 million yuan. Local media reported that in order to increase the probability of winning, some home buyers deposited tens of millions in their bank accounts just for capital verification.
New houses in Hexi are selling so hotly. The above-mentioned industry insiders said: "Hexi itself is a hot spot, and it is even hotter across the river from Jiangbei. Moreover, since last year, all land auctions that reached the maximum price have to be sold to existing houses, which is equivalent to The period from land auction to listing has been extended by one and a half to two years, and the supply is insufficient. The last launch of Yanlord Oasis New Island in Jiangxinzhou was 20 months ago.”
In stark contrast, A broker from the real estate agency I Love My Home Nanjing Sanyuan Lane told reporters that Fanyue City Plaza, located between the Gulou business district and the Hunan Road business district and surrounded by two rail transits, will be launched before the end of the year, with an average price of about 3.59 Ten thousand yuan/square meter. If he shows the house, he can register two numbers without capital verification.
Fanyue City Plaza, which opened for the first time in June this year, has a total of 248 well-decorated houses. Only 130 groups of buyers have registered and paid a deposit of 600,000 yuan on the day of house selection. According to data from Nanjing Online Real Estate, there are still 28 units available for sale as of November 29.
Why are new houses in urban areas with more convenient surrounding facilities, even though they are well-decorated houses with floor heating and central air-conditioning, being "left out"?
The above-mentioned industry insiders told reporters that Fanyue City Plaza is located in the old city reconstruction area. It used to be a logistics warehouse. There are train stations and large markets nearby. The environment and public security are relatively poor, and the corresponding schools are not very good. The surrounding areas are facing demolition and road construction at any time. Unlike newly planned areas where famous school branches can be quickly introduced, the living comfort is better.
A real estate agent said, "There are many old houses in the city center. Hexi was a rural area ten years ago. Now facilities and businesses are gradually developed. Many people still consider half investment and half improvement. In the past few years, Jiangning also There is no development. Now that the subway is connected and Wanda Plaza has been built, Jiangning’s transaction volume has become one of the top in Nanjing. The house I bought the year before was not popular at the time, but the second phase has doubled this year.”
“It is better to buy a house sooner rather than later, and the price will be the same after the new year. As far as I am concerned, except for one homeowner who urgently sold the house in order to participate in the Hexi lottery, he lowered the total price a little but required full payment. , other second-hand houses are still rising steadily,” he said.
Except for new houses in urban Nanjing, even if they are also new houses in Jiangbei New District, no one will buy them if the house prices are not inverted. On October 30, Beijiang Jincheng, located in Pukou District, Jiangbei New District, 1.5 kilometers away from Yushan Road Station of Metro Line 10, had 108 sales licenses. However, because the average price of new houses is slightly higher than 24,300 yuan/square meter, As for the price of second-hand houses in the surrounding area, since the market opened, there have been zero transactions and subscriptions. The real estate also has a small number of properties for sale in the early stage, which have not been sold out for more than a year.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that there are inevitable reasons for the hot sales of the Nanjing Hexi property market. The first is the hotspot sector, which is well planned. Second, under the background of price restrictions, the prices of new homes and second-hand homes are inverted, especially in hot sectors. The prices of new homes are lower than expected. The "buy and earn" mentality has actively released the enthusiasm for home buying. Yan Yuejin also pointed out that from the perspective of real estate companies, the market demand is huge and funds need to be withdrawn quickly at the end of the year. But "80% of the down payment" is strictly against the rules. This is a discriminatory condition and unfair in the entire home buying market.
“The chaos in Nanjing’s real estate market has certain implications: how to ensure the stability of the home purchase market under the price limit and lottery system.” Yan Yuejin said, “Some families are applying for funds for four or five real estate projects at the same time. Popular properties The low winning rate in real estate lottery shows that in strong second-tier cities represented by Nanjing, there are still many people who meet the conditions for home purchase, and the potential demand for home purchase is large, so increasing the supply of land and housing and improving the balance between supply and demand are still the fundamental way. It is leveraging, so how to regulate the real estate market needs to be considered."
Regulation is not for statistics
"It is not a big problem for price inversion to occur in other areas. It is easy to become a 'hot spot' in Hexi." Meng Xiangyuan, director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of Nanjing Forestry University, was quoted as saying that Hexi is a new urban area that Nanjing has focused on building in recent years and is also a gathering area for high-end service industries in the future. Real estate here has been selling well. . Under the price limit and sales limit policy, there has been no supply of new houses in this area for nearly half a year, and there has been a large amount of market demand. Therefore, tens of thousands of people rushed to buy the houses as soon as they opened.
In the course of the reporter’s investigation, it was found that almost all properties with inverted prices were eagerly snapped up.
In Jiangning District, "On the afternoon of last Friday (November 24), when my friend went to register at Langshi Youth Street in Lukou, Jiangning District, there were already more than 4,000 numbers." A real estate developer Tell reporters.
Jiangbei New District, across the Yangtze River from Hexi, is also in a housing purchase restriction area. Due to the low total price, the frenzy of buying is even worse.
On November 20, after more than a year, Jiangbei New District Investment Lanxi Valley once again obtained the sales license, with 516 rough houses, with floor areas of 89 square meters and 120 square meters, and an average price of about 1.4 Ten thousand yuan/square meter. The Paper reporter saw on a local real estate agency website that the listing price of a 76-square-meter second-hand house in China Merchants Lanxi Valley was around 20,000 yuan. On the morning of November 21, more than 3,000 groups of people lined up to register.
The loan conditions set by this property are very strict: those whose credit cards are overdue once or more are not allowed to get loans; those who have credit loan or consumer loan records in their names are not allowed to get loans; the interest rate for the first house is increased by 15%, and the interest rate for the second house is increased by 20%.
Together with China Merchants Lanxi Valley, China Resources International Community, located in the center of the riverside, has been named the "Sacred Land of Jiangbei New District" and is determined to be promoted within this year. The property was last on the market on June 2, 2016, 16 months ago. The industry expects that if the additional houses are still rough houses, the price will be the same as last year, about 21,000 yuan/square meter. In mid-November, a three-bedroom apartment with an area of ??89 square meters was newly sold in this property, with a total price of 3.1 million yuan and a unit price of 34,800 yuan.
On November 29, China Merchants Lanxi Valley announced the lottery. The final number of valid registrations was 8,668 groups, with a winning rate of 5.9. No surprise, the housing selection opened on December 2, and all the properties promoted by China Merchants Lanxi Valley were fully subscribed.
In response to the strange phenomenon in Nanjing’s property market, Xinhua News Agency published a commentary on November 26 saying that this phenomenon occurred not because the real estate market regulation was too strict, but precisely because the regulation was not comprehensive enough and the reform was not deep enough. At present, the regulation of the real estate market has entered the "deep water zone", making regulation more difficult. The more anxious the market becomes, the more it is necessary to stabilize expectations, and the more crazy the market becomes, the more it is necessary to deepen reforms. We must not lose perspective or patience on the road to reform.
The purpose of regulation such as price limits is not to limit the opening price of new homes, nor is it to "cover" housing prices, nor is it to "look good" in statistics. To control the real estate market, short-term control policies should create a window period for long-term reforms, and control and reform measures should work together to address the symptoms and root causes.
First of all, short-term property market regulation should give way to long-term mechanisms, in the direction of "houses are for living", establish a long-term mechanism, and gradually expand the land supply for public rental housing. Focus on meeting the housing needs of urban "sandwich" and poor people such as migrant workers and newly employed college students, further narrow the gap between rich and poor, and promote the balance between supply and demand in the real estate market.
Secondly, we need to expand and improve the capital market, increase the supply of high-quality investment products, expand investment channels, and guide funds from the real estate market to other markets. Reduce the investment income of the real estate industry, cut off the open channels and undercover channels of real estate speculation from the financial perspective, guide investment into the real economy, and transfer it to the development of industries in urgent need of support.
In addition, we must strictly follow the functional positioning of real estate, resolutely maintain the bottom line of no systemic risks, clarify the main contradictions, support policy measures, achieve coordination of short-term and long-term mechanisms, and continue to deepen the reform. Such a multi-pronged approach, stabilizing expectations, taking into account both short-term and long-term interests, and being detailed and practical can promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.