The political consequence of oil is that oil consumption directly affects the economic development speed of a country. Generally speaking, in the stable stage of oil price, economic growth is directly proportional to the growth of oil consumption. In other words, in order to achieve a certain degree of economic growth, it is necessary to consume a certain amount of oil as a guarantee. During the high-speed development of the world economy from 1960s to early 1970s, the ratio of oil consumption to economic growth was generally 1: 1.5. If the oil supply is always in a tight state, it will inevitably become a "bottleneck" to inhibit a country's economic development. Peace and development are two major themes in the contemporary world, and economic growth is the biggest politics in most countries, so as far as a country as a whole is concerned, the containment of oil on the economy can be said to be a far-reaching political consequence. Secondly, oil is also an important military strategic material, which is related to the life and death of a country in wartime. Therefore, all countries control oil resources as much as possible, and whoever controls oil will have the initiative in the war. Japan seized oil resources in Southeast Asia in World War II, and Hitler invaded the Soviet Union and seized oil fields in the Caucasus. They all tried to control the war by controlling oil resources. From this perspective, the direct political consequences of oil are more obvious.
For the above reasons, in the operation of international relations, oil is often used as a means to achieve certain political goals, which has many direct and indirect political consequences. The oil embargo is one of them. The "oil embargo" can be imposed by oil-producing countries on consumer countries, or by some countries or international organizations on other countries. In the Fourth Middle East War, in order to force Israel to withdraw its troops from the occupied Arab territories, Arab oil-producing countries took measures to reduce production in June 1973+00 and imposed oil embargoes on the United States, the Netherlands and other countries. This line of movable property has borne fruit. During the implementation of the oil embargo in Arab oil-producing countries, European countries issued statements on June 6 1973,165438+1October 6 to ensure oil supply. The foreign ministers of these countries demanded "a just and lasting peace in the Middle East" and put forward that "Israel must end its territorial occupation since the conflict of June 1967; … recognizing that the legitimate rights of Palestinians must be taken into account in establishing a just and lasting peace. " Another example is that the United Nations imposed an oil embargo on South Africa to oppose racism in South Africa. In addition, oil is the main reason for some countries to form alliances. For example, one of the reasons for the establishment of the North American Free Trade Area is that the United States has taken a fancy to the rich oil resources of Canada and Mexico. According to reports, of the 580 million barrels of strategic oil reserves in the United States at the end of 1989, most of the 388 million barrels of sour crude oil came from Mexico. Moreover, the United States imported 388.2 million tons of crude oil in 1992, including 5/kloc-0.90 million tons from Canada and 88.3 million tons from the Middle East. It can be seen that the crude oil imported by the United States from the Middle East is only 36.4 million tons more than that imported from Canada. Obviously, the establishment of this free trade zone in the United States can solve the problem of a considerable amount of oil supply in its backyard, thus reducing its dependence on oil in the unsafe Middle East.
Because oil is closely related to economic development, social stability and national security, western countries put establishing strategic oil reserves and ensuring oil supply at an important position in their national strategies. This is because most western countries are oil importers, especially in the crisis-ridden Middle East. According to the statistics of the US Department of Energy, since 1950, the oil supply in the Middle East has been interrupted about 15 times due to various political and economic events. After the first oil crisis, OECD member countries began to build a large number of oil reserves and established their own emergency energy reserve system. This kind of oil reserve has gone beyond the meaning of general commercial turnover inventory. It not only has the functions of ensuring supply, reducing risks and stabilizing prices, but also focuses on the political consequences of oil, trying to make China stand firm in the ever-changing international politics and fierce struggle, take the initiative and avoid being controlled by others.
The function of strategic petroleum reserve can be summarized as: (1) ensuring supply. That is to ensure the emergency supply of oil for a period of time, so that all important departments of the national economy, especially the military, can operate normally. (2) Stabilize oil prices. The huge strategic oil reserve itself has played a balancing role in the market. 1990, the strategic oil reserves of member countries of the international energy agency can last for 96 days. Such huge reserves and stocks can be sold to the international market at any time to curb the rise in oil prices. As the western newspapers commented, although the oil reserve is the first line of defense against the oil shortage, its real function is not to make up for the lost imports, but to curb the rise of oil prices. (3) deterrence. In case of emergency, the country can use the strategic oil reserve in time, reduce and limit the impact of oil weapons or oil crisis, and win the time needed to solve the crisis and a series of other problems. At the same time, it can also make potential opponents realize that this kind of reserve can protect the oil supply for a long time, and when making the decision to use "oil weapons", they have to consider the unbearable losses that may bring to their oil income.
In this regard, the current situation facing China is very grim. At present, the oil produced in China is basically consumed in that year. Due to the rapid growth of the national economy, the oil supply is always in a tight state, and the shortage is generally made up by reducing oil exports and increasing oil imports. In recent years, the export volume of crude oil has decreased year by year, while the import volume has increased year by year. By 1993, the net export volume of crude oil reached 3,782,400 tons. The import volume of refined oil increased from 8 million tons of 199 1 to 17400 tons, and the export volume decreased from 4.66 million tons to 3.7 million tons. Starting from this year, it is a foregone conclusion that China will become a net importer of oil, and to some extent, it has become dependent on the international oil market. In this case, China's national strategic oil reserve is still blank in a strict sense, except that some petroleum and petrochemical enterprises have production revolving oil storage tanks with a total capacity of10.20 billion cubic meters. Therefore, the planning and implementation of China's strategic petroleum reserve must be put on the agenda.
Enlightenment of Western Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In 1970s, there were two world-wide oil crises, which caused great shock in the west. After the crisis, western oil consuming countries began to establish their own strategic oil reserves. By the end of March 1992, the strategic oil reserve of OECD was 406.4 million tons, which could be consumed for 93 days. Among them, the United States reserves 2010.7 million tons, which can be consumed for 94 days; Japan reserves 80 million tons, which can be consumed 1 1 1 day; Sweden's 5.4 million tons can be consumed 107 days; In addition, France still has 42.3 million tons of reserves, which can be consumed 1 16 days. This huge oil reserve is about 1/6 of the world's total annual oil consumption, 1/4 of OECD consumption or 1/2 of imports.
The United States is the largest economic and military power in the world, and also the largest oil consumer. In view of the importance of safe oil supply, the formulation of American oil policy attaches great importance to the adequacy and safety of national oil supply, especially military oil supply, and attaches great importance to it. From 19 12 to the mid-1920s, the United States passed laws in Congress one after another, which classified four vast areas and three large shale deposits rich in oil and gas reserves in China as "naval oil reserves" and stipulated that Xu Haijun could only be exploited with the approval of Congress when it was in urgent need in wartime. So far, the mineral deposits in these areas are still under the strict control of the United States.
Since 1975, the United States has been authorized by Congress to start building a huge emergency oil reserve system. The first government procurement was in 1977. Large-scale procurement began in the early 1980s. 1978- 1980, American oil reserves remained at 1 100 million barrels. 198 1 soared to 200 million barrels, mainly because the second oil crisis broke out, the market supply tended to be tight and oil prices were bullish. The west snapped up stocks of oil because of panic, and the United States was no exception. Despite the high oil price at that time, the strategic oil reserves purchased by the United States at 198 1 were still as high as 336,000 barrels per day. 1982 strategic oil reserves rose to 300 million barrels, and 1990 was close to 590 million barrels. The United States is the largest oil reserve country in the world today, and its total reserves account for 60% of the total strategic oil reserves of OECD governments. It has reached 600 million barrels at present.
During the Gulf crisis, America's strategic oil reserves stood the real test and played a great role. Since 199 1, 1, 17 Gulf War broke out, although the international oil price generally rose in the first two hours, for example, in the spot transactions in New Orleans and Houston, the oil price rose from $32 to $35 per barrel, but then the oil price immediately fell across the board. 65438+ 10 18, the closing price of Brent crude oil fell to $8.20 per barrel, the lowest level since August 2 1990. By the end of the Gulf War, the oil price was around 2 1 USD per barrel, which was about1USD lower than before the war. The Gulf War did not lead to an increase in oil prices as most people estimated before the war, mainly because the United States used strategic oil reserves and other effective cooperation measures. June 65438+1October 16 US President Bush approved the use of US strategic oil reserves, and put1120,000 barrels into the market every day from nearly 600 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. If the daily consumption of 1990 is 17655000 barrels, the existing strategic oil reserves in the United States can be used for national consumption. In addition, the international energy agency also actively cooperates. By the end of 1990, the oil reserves of member countries of the International Energy Agency reached 3.6 billion barrels, which could be consumed for 96 days. 65438+1October 1 1, the International Energy Agency announced that it would release 2.5 million barrels of oil to the international oil market every day in preparation for the Gulf War. These actions have greatly calmed the psychological panic that the market supply may be interrupted. In addition, the US government has taken other measures, such as requiring major oil companies to freeze oil prices at pre-war levels during the war, and sending energy minister Watkins to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to seek to make up for the oil supply gap. In order to make up for the gap of 4 million barrels between Iraq and Kuwait, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to temporarily suspend the quota production system, and its member countries could increase production by themselves according to market demand. In fact, the output of crude oil increased by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries later exceeded the demand gap of 4 million barrels per day. These measures, especially the use of strategic oil reserves, have played a role in stabilizing market supply, stabilizing people's hearts and stabilizing market crude oil prices. At present, America's oil imports are still increasing, and it is estimated that by 2000, imported oil will account for 67% of America's oil supply. In order to cope with the risks, the US Senate decided in 1989 to raise the strategic oil reserve target to 100 billion barrels, which will be completed in 2000. From this point of view, the role of strategic oil reserves has been recognized by the US government and has become a trump card for the US government to deal with the oil crisis.
Japan is the second largest energy consumer after the United States, and its oil consumption accounts for 56.3% of the total energy consumption in 1994, of which 99.7% depends on imports. Moreover, 77.3%( 1989) of the oil imported by Japan comes from the Middle East, which means that Japan's oil supply system is directly affected by the international turmoil surrounding oil. Therefore, it is a very difficult task for Japan to ensure the stable and continuous supply of a large amount of oil to meet domestic demand. To this end, Japan has taken measures such as encouraging private enterprises to carry out oil exploration and development activities, strengthening ties with oil-producing countries, and diversifying oil supply sources. In addition, it is equally important to establish sufficient oil reserves to deal with possible emergencies.
Japan's strategic oil reserve system includes company reserve and government reserve. Unlike the United States, Japan attaches more importance to company reserve than government reserve. Japan's enterprise reserves refer to the reserves of private enterprises and the reserves of importers of liquefied petroleum and natural gas. Starting from 1972, Japanese oil companies began to carry out oil reserve activities. By the end of March 1995, the company's oil reserves were about 45.4 million cubic meters. At the same time, the Japanese government's oil reserves are also quite huge, at the end of March 1995, about 45 million cubic meters. The total reserve is equivalent to 157 days' consumption. In addition, compared with the United States, Japan has established a reserve of liquefied petroleum gas in addition to oil. 198 1- 1988 liquefied petroleum gas reserves can guarantee the consumption level for 50 days.
The practice of western strategic oil reserves fully shows that since oil is such a special commodity with political characteristics and a strategic material related to national development and security, the development of a country's oil economy should pursue the goal of maximizing economic benefits on the one hand, but on the other hand, maximizing economic benefits is not the only goal of a country's oil industry. Decision makers, managers and government officials in the oil industry must have both economic and political minds when considering oil issues. The planning and solution of China's strategic oil reserves should not only follow the economic laws, but also consider China's strategic oil reserves from the reality.
With the continuous growth of imported oil, China's dependence on imported crude oil is increasing, and the problem of safe supply of oil is becoming increasingly prominent. According to the forecast of Energy Research Institute of China Academy of Sciences, by the year 2000, China will need about 200 million tons of crude oil every year, while the domestic annual production capacity is expected to be1.65-65438+75 million tons, with a gap of nearly 25-35 million tons. This further emphasizes the importance and urgency of establishing strategic oil reserves in China. Energy manager news/
First, the most fundamental safeguard measures are to attach importance to and increase exploration investment and have sufficient oil resources reserves.
Having sufficient oil reserves is safer and more secure than storing oil. First of all, the reduction of exploration investment will inevitably lead to the increase of oil dependence on foreign countries. From 65438 to 0986, the collapse of international crude oil prices has brought great benefits to the economies of western oil-consuming countries. Their oil import costs have been greatly reduced, the inflation rate has decreased and the economic growth rate has increased. However, low oil prices have actually hit the oil industry in western countries, and investment in exploration has decreased. 1986 The investment ratio of oil exploration and development of major western oil companies 1985 decreased by about 30%, of which the United States decreased by nearly 40%. At the end of 1986, the number of drilling rigs in use in the world was about 2,200, which was about 37% lower than that of 3,500 at the end of 1985. The number of drilling rigs in use in the United States decreased the most, and 1987 fell to the level before World War II. With the economic growth and the reduction of investment in oil exploration, the dependence of western countries on imported oil has deepened, and more than 40% of crude oil consumption in the United States depends on imports. Secondly, the deepening of external dependence will inevitably lead to a higher degree of oil supply risk. At present, there is about100000 barrels per day of excess crude oil production capacity in the world, and the actual supply of crude oil also greatly exceeds the demand. If analyzed purely in quantity, the crude oil supply crisis will not occur before 2000. However, it should not be overlooked that the remaining capacity of 6.5438+million barrels per day is almost entirely in the hands of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 70% of which is in the Middle East region with the highest political risk in the world. 1973- 1974 and 1978- 1979 have caused serious losses to the economies of western oil-importing countries, and the international political situation is turbulent. Both crises originated in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. In view of this, in order to reduce the dependence on Middle East oil and prevent the sudden interruption of oil supply in this region from harming the country, the United States and other countries have adopted a series of energy security measures, one of which is to increase oil investment and have more resource reserves. For example, Britain and Norway have expanded the scale of oil exploration in the North Sea. On the one hand, Japan uses the appreciation of the yen and the fall in oil prices to buy oil reserves from other countries; On the other hand, it cooperates with countries with resources to develop oil in an attempt to gain some product control rights from it. In 1988, Japan's investment in oil exploration and development was $65,438.05 billion, almost twice that of 1980. In order to increase oil reserves, the US government has also increased investment in exploration and development. The investment areas are not limited to China, but also invested a lot of money in areas with good oil prospects abroad, such as Canada, Beihai and some developing countries.
Therefore, the fundamental guarantee of China's safe oil supply should be based on the development of China's oil exploration and development forces, and China's oil enterprises should be encouraged to participate in domestic and foreign oil resources cooperation, so as to find and own more oil resources, so as to ensure the safety of oil supply.
Second, establish sufficient strategic oil reserves as soon as possible.
Although having sufficient oil reserves is the most reliable and fundamental guarantee, it is a faster and more effective way to supply oil safely by purchasing and storing oil and establishing emergency oil reserves. This has been confirmed by the practice of the United States, Japan and other countries.
Take 1993, where China has become a net oil importer, as an example, the total import of crude oil and refined oil reached 33,05210,000 tons, while the total export of crude oil and refined oil was 23134,500 tons, accounting for about10% of the total annual crude oil output. Although this ratio is much lower than that of the United States (40%) and Japan (99.7%) in the same year, China's demand for oil is also increasing greatly due to the rapid economic growth. According to Japanese experts' prediction, by the year 2000, China's oil demand will be 4,038,400 barrels per day, and its oil output will be 3,094,000 barrels per day, so its net oil import will be about 950,000 barrels per day, equivalent to 47.3 million tons of crude oil imported every year (1 ton =7.33 barrels, and 1 year is 365 days). Imported crude oil accounts for about 24% of the demand. From this perspective, China's dependence on oil imports will soon double. Moreover, in China's crude oil import structure, the proportion of crude oil imported from the Middle East has remained at around 40% for several years, and it is expected that the crude oil imported from the unstable Middle East will continue to increase in the future. Therefore, the risk of oil supply will further increase. In addition, it should also be considered that the United States has a strong naval and air force, which can be used to ensure the unimpeded supply channels of its overseas oil, while China does not have such support; In the international political arena, Japan is not principled enough, but flexible enough to seek the status of a political and diplomatic power. One of the important reasons is that its oil supply line is extremely fragile, and it often falls into a situation that scares people in need. China must not wait for such a serious situation to pay attention to the strategic oil reserve. To sum up, the establishment of China's strategic oil reserve should be planned and solved as an urgent task as soon as possible. There is a view that since China is a developing country and has difficulty in financing, the issue of national strategic oil reserves can be considered after 2000. This is obviously a one-sided view that only cares about the gains and losses of economic interests and lacks political vision. Energy manager news/
Third, establish a strategic petroleum reserve suitable for China's national conditions.
Of course, China's national strategic oil reserve should adapt to China's specific political and economic situation and obey the needs of national development and security and foreign struggle. As far as the author is concerned, we should pay attention to the following points:
1, China's strategic oil reserves should be dominated by crude oil.
First of all, for safety reasons, crude oil is easier to transport and store than any other oil and gas; On the other hand, considering that the imported crude oil is processed at home, the economic benefits are good, and China's crude oil processing capacity can also be fully utilized. In addition, the reserve of LNG will be gradually established with the development of economy. This is because under the requirements of environmental protection, the demand for LNG will increase, especially in the southeast coastal areas of China, where the economy is developing fastest, energy is extremely scarce, and it is not far from Indonesia, an Asian LNG exporting country. Therefore, it is possible to import some LNG and store it under the distribution characteristics of refineries in China. However, China is rich in natural gas resources. 1994 65438+On February 4th, People's Daily reported that an atmospheric area with unusually rich natural gas resources was discovered in the western South China Sea, with a total resource of 13.44 trillion cubic meters, accounting for about13 of the total natural gas resources in China. Among them, the exploitable economic resources are about 2.5-3 trillion cubic meters. With the further development of natural gas production, the output of natural gas will increase greatly. Therefore, China's LNG reserves can only be a supplement to crude oil reserves, and the amount of natural gas reserves will not be too large.
2. China's strategic oil reserves should be dispersed and diversified.
This is also for safety reasons, and also to meet the needs of wide distribution of oil fields in China, convenient storage and transportation, and cost saving as much as possible. Strategic petroleum reserves are mainly used to deal with emergencies including wars, so the distribution of storage locations can minimize the losses caused by attacks, destruction and natural disasters; In addition, China is a vast country with oil fields and oil processing enterprises in the east, west, north and south. The decentralized layout of strategic oil reserves can be adapted to local conditions, and reserves can be established by using the produced or imported oil nearby, which is convenient for oil processing, transportation and emergency mobilization, improving safety and reliability and saving various expenses. Similarly, the way of storing oil should be different according to different situations. For example, caves can be built in mountainous areas, underground or ground tanks and pools can be built in desert areas, and Upright and tanks can be built on the surface of lakes and seas, all of which can meet the requirements of safety, reliability, economy and convenience. Energy manager news/
3. The cost of China's strategic oil reserve should be mainly raised by the government through multiple channels.
Japan and the United States have taken different approaches to the cost of establishing strategic oil reserves. The United States mainly buys through the government. To this end, the U.S. government allocated 1 991900 million dollars for strategic oil reserves, of which1600 million dollars was used to purchase crude oil and the remaining 3 billion dollars was used for facilities construction. With the high fiscal deficit and trade deficit in the United States, capital is obviously a big problem. Japan also needs a lot of capital and maintenance costs to maintain its strategic oil reserves. In particular, the reserves of Japanese private oil companies are difficult to maintain without the strong support of the government. The main measures taken by Japan are as follows: first, Japanese oil companies provide low-interest loans for private companies to buy reserve oil; Second, Japan Development Bank and Okinawa Development Consortium provide low-interest loans for reserve facilities construction projects. These measures have promoted the construction of oil reserves of oil companies. In recent years, some members of the U.S. Congress have put forward new methods to solve the problem of funds for the construction of strategic oil reserves. For example, in February of 199 1, a bill required crude oil and oil-importing countries to provide 9% of their total imports free of charge as strategic oil reserves or as "oil insurance premium" to the Ministry of National Defense. This 9% will be enough to meet the needs of the Ministry of National Defense, and the strategic oil reserve can be filled at the rate of 220,000 barrels per day, so that the total reserve will be expanded from 590 million barrels to 654.38 billion barrels in five years. However, the US government did not adopt this proposal for various reasons.
According to the current situation, the cost of China's strategic oil reserve should be mainly funded by the government and raised by the government and the people through various channels. First of all, if the strategic oil reserve can be regarded as a major event related to the overall security and development of China, and it occupies an important strategic position in the country like national defense, it should be natural for the central government to allocate special funds for oil reserves. Therefore, the government should also be able to play a key role in the process of establishing China's strategic oil reserves. Secondly, with the development and perfection of market economy, oil companies have considerable autonomy in production and sales. In order to improve economic benefits and meet the market demand for crude oil and petroleum products, the enthusiasm of oil companies to store oil will continue to increase. This has laid a foundation for the establishment of oil reserves of "private" enterprises, and it is promising for all oil enterprises in China to establish strategic oil reserves. Thirdly, in order to give full play to the role of the government and private enterprises and learn from the practices of the United States, Japan and other countries, the state should formulate some preferential measures for the construction of strategic oil reserves. For example, give low-interest loans to oil companies and build oil storage facilities; At the same time, "oil import insurance premium" is levied on imported oil according to a certain proportion, and this part of oil is concentrated to establish the government's strategic oil reserve. It should be noted that the proportion of "oil import insurance premium" should not be too high. If the proportion is set properly, it will not cause an excessive burden to oil importing enterprises. In addition, the author preliminarily believes that China Petroleum and Natural Gas Corporation, as an important national oil company, plays a dual role in establishing China's strategic oil reserve, which is not only the direct contractor of the national strategic oil reserve, but also the active builder of its own commercial oil reserve. Therefore, China Petroleum and Natural Gas Group Company should follow the dual principles of the country's political and economic needs and its own commercial interests, and actively carry out related operations of strategic oil reserves.