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In the early 1990s, in the process of economic recession in western developed countries, the economies of Southeast Asian countries showed miraculous growth, with increasing economic strength and bright economic prospects. Before the outbreak of the economic crisis, the economic development model of Southeast Asia was once followed by developing countries. Southeast Asian countries are very optimistic about their national economies. In order to speed up the pace of economic growth, they relaxed financial control and implemented financial liberalization in order to become a new world financial center. However, some very important things have been ignored by Southeast Asian countries under the aura of economic prosperity, that is, the economic growth of Southeast Asian countries is not based on the growth of unit input and output, but mainly depends on the increase of extension input. On this basis, financial deregulation will undoubtedly raise high-rise buildings on the beach and expose their respective currencies to international hot money without any protection, which is extremely vulnerable to the impact of international hot money from all directions. In addition, due to the rapid economic growth, the phenomenon of excessive real estate speculation and overestimation of enterprise scale and market demand has generally appeared in Southeast Asian countries, and the danger of economic crisis has gradually increased.
As early as 1996, Maurice Goldstein, an economist of the International Monetary Fund, predicted that in Southeast Asian countries, the currencies of various countries were being impacted from all directions and a financial crisis might break out. Thailand, in particular, has more risk factors and is more vulnerable to the impact of international hot money and financial turmoil. However, Goldstein's prediction did not attract the attention of Southeast Asian countries, but caused disgust. Southeast Asian countries are still intoxicated by the economic miracle they have created.
Such a big financial loophole in Southeast Asia can't escape Soros's eyes. He has been waiting for a favorable opportunity to fight another English-style battle.
1993, Soros thought that the Malaysian currency ringgit was undervalued and decided to use ringgit as a breakthrough. He joined hands with some hedge fund managers to start encirclement and suppression of ringgit, but Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir was determined to keep the ringgit low. Mahathir has taken a series of powerful measures to strengthen the control of the domestic capital market, so Lunsulos and some arbitrage fund managers have no choice but to temporarily withdraw their troops. The Malaysian currency, the ringgit, was spared. But the small defeat in Malaysia didn't make Soros back down. He just waited for a better opportunity again.
With the passage of time, the signs of overheating in Southeast Asian countries have become more prominent. The central bank of a famous country adopted the method of increasing the bank interest rate to reduce the inflation rate. This method also provides many opportunities for speculation. Even the banking industry itself is borrowing US dollars, Japanese yen, marks and other foreign currencies to speculate in foreign currencies and join the ranks of speculators. The serious consequence of this is the sharp increase of short-term foreign debts of banks in various countries. Once foreign hot money quickly flows out of the financial markets of various countries, it will lead to a painful impact. Although the central banks of Southeast Asian countries have realized the seriousness of this problem, they seem to be powerless in the face of the open self-D market. Among them, the most serious problem is Thailand. At that time, Thailand had the highest degree of financial market liberalization in Southeast Asian countries, and Qin Tie kept a close eye on the US dollar, allowing capital to flow in and out freely. Thailand's economy has the most "bubbles". Thai banks have moved a large number of foreign currency loans into the real estate industry, resulting in a serious imbalance between supply and demand, leading to a large number of bad debts and bad debts in the banking industry, and the quality of assets has seriously deteriorated. 1997 In the first half of this year, the bad debts of Thailand's banking industry were estimated to be as high as 1 100 million to 9,000 h Tailin (about 3 1 100 million to $35 billion). Coupled with the unreasonable loan structure, Thailand's banking industry is even worse. 95% of overseas loans of Thai banks belong to short-term loans of less than one year.
After seeing this weakest link in Southeast Asia's capital market, Soros decided to attack Thai factories first, and then swept the capital markets of the whole Southeast Asian countries.
1 In March 1997, when the Bank of Thailand announced that nine domestic financial companies and1home improvement housing loan companies had problems of low asset quality and insufficient liquidity, Soroxin thought that a golden opportunity had come. Brain, Soros and other arbitrage fund managers began to sell Tailin in large quantities, and Thailand's foreign exchange market immediately became choppy and turbulent. Taizhu has been falling all the way, with a minimum of 1 USD to 26.70 mil in May. At the critical moment, the Central Bank of Thailand took various emergency measures, such as buying Qin Tie with foreign exchange of 654.38+0.2 billion US dollars, raising the overnight lending rate and restricting the lending behavior of domestic banks. These powerful measures made Soros's transaction cost soar and lost $300 million at once. However, as long as Sulos has confidence in his original theory and insists on his correctness, he will not only close his position, but even increase his position. The loss of $300 million doesn't scare Soros at all. He believes that even if Thailand tries its best, it can't resist his impact. He is determined to win.
1997 In late June, Soros raised more funds and launched a fierce attack on Taitie again. The major exchanges were in chaos, Qin Tie plunged, and traders sold Tailin crazily. The Thai government used $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves and $654.38+0.5 billion in international loans to try to turn the tide. However, this mere $45 billion is only a drop in the ocean compared with the endless international hot money.
On July 2, because the Thai government could no longer compete with Soros, it had to change the currency linked exchange rate system that had been maintained for 13 years and implement a floating exchange rate system. The decline in Zhuhai, Thailand is even greater. On July 24th, Taizhu has fallen to the lowest level of 1 USD, reaching 32.63 USD. The Thai government was swept away by international speculators, and many Thais were stripped of their pockets.
Soros's victory in the first battle was not satisfied with this. He decided to sweep across Southeast Asia and make a profit again. Hurricane Soros quickly swept through Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Malaysia and other countries. The Indonesian rupiah, Philippine peso, Myanmar dollar and Malaysian ringgit depreciated sharply, leading to terrible scenes such as factory closures, bank closures and rising prices. Hurricane Soros, which swept through Southeast Asia, swept away billions of dollars of wealth at once, and reduced decades of economic growth in these countries to ashes.
The Asian financial crisis also quickly spread to the foreign exchange income and securities markets of Latin America, Eastern Europe and other Asian countries. The foreign exchange and securities markets in Brazil, Poland, Greece, Singapore, Taiwan Province Province and other countries and regions have also experienced turmoil, and the value of currencies and securities has fallen one after another. Japanese governments in these countries also have to use the national treasury to support their own currency and securities markets. Many countries turn pale with laughter. Soros's attack on financial markets has caused the debt and trade deficits of many developing countries to surge, which is extremely destructive. Countries began to strengthen financial management and guard against Soros at all times, which also made Soros's actions no longer so easy.
After sweeping Southeast Asia, Soros's invisible hand began to quietly reach out to the Oriental Pearl Hong Kong, which has just returned to the motherland.
In mid-July, 1997, the Hong Kong dollar suffered a lot of speculative selling, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar was hit, all the way down to the psychological barrier of 1 US dollar against HK$ 7.7500. Hong Kong's financial market is in chaos, and the front doors of major banks are crowded with runners. The Hong Kong dollar is in a hurry for the first time in many years. Hong Kong monetary authorities immediately entered the market, forcibly intervened in the market and bought a large amount of Hong Kong dollars, keeping the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollars above the retracement threshold of HK$ 7.7500 against the US dollar.
In the first week, it did have the expected effect. But soon, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong Hall against the US dollar fell below the HK$ 7.7500 mark. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority once again used its foreign exchange reserves, intervened in the market in an all-round way, and raised the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar above 7.7500, showing its strong financial strength. Soros's first exploratory attack failed under the strong defense of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
According to past experience, Soros is by no means the kind of person who is willing to give up easily. He began to buy a lot of Hong Kong dollars in the long term, ready to pay more attention to the glory of the battles in England and Southeast Asia. But this time, Soros's decision is not wise, because he may forget to consider Chinese mainland behind the harbor. The foreign exchange reserves of Hongkong and Chinese mainland have reached more than US$ 200 billion. Together with Taiwan Province Province and Macau, the foreign exchange reserves are not less than US$ 374 billion. Such a strong strength is not comparable to that of Britain, Thailand and other countries. The odds of winning this attack on the Hong Kong dollar are slim.
For Hong Kong, maintaining a fixed exchange rate system is a guarantee to maintain people's confidence. Once the fixed exchange rate system falls under the impact of international hot money led by Soros and others, people will lose confidence in Hong Kong, thus undermining its prosperity. Therefore, defending Hong Kong's monetary stability is doomed to be a life-and-death battle. The Hong Kong government will fight back against any challenge to the Hong Kong dollar at all costs.
1July 2, 9971day, Soros began to launch a new round of attacks. On the same day, the three-month forward premium of the US dollar against the Hong Kong dollar rose by 250 points, and the three-month interbank offered rate of the Hong Kong dollar rose from 5.575% to 7.06%. The next day, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority immediately planned a counterattack. The Hong Kong government raised the interest rate of the Hong Kong dollar by issuing a large number of government bonds, which in turn pushed the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar up sharply against the US dollar. At the same time, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority gave verbal warnings to two banks suspected of speculating in Hong Kong dollars, which made some Hong Kong dollar speculators tremble and finally chose to quit the Hong Kong dollar speculation team, which will undoubtedly weaken Soros' speculative power. When speculative selling of the Hong Kong dollar began again, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sharply raised short-term interest rates, which led to a surge in overnight lending rates. A series of counter-attacks, so that Soros's Hong Kong campaign failed to get any cheap, it is said that this move made Soros suffer heavy losses.
The China government has repeatedly stressed that it will fully support the Hong Kong government in maintaining the stability of the Hong Kong dollar. When necessary, the Bank of China will cooperate with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to jointly crack down on Soros' speculative activities. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for Hong Kong, but it is definitely bad news for Soros. "The" bad "news that Sulos heard was far more than that. 1On July 25th, 1997, the central bank meeting of1countries and regions in the Asia-Pacific region, including China, Australia, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Japan and ASEAN countries, issued a statement: the economy in the Asia-Pacific region is developing well, so it is necessary to strengthen mutual cooperation and combat currency speculation. This made Soros feel that the hope of speculating in Hong Kong dollars to make a lot of money was lost and he had to leave angrily.
The failure to attack the Hong Kong dollar also taught Soros a lesson. Don't overestimate your power to control the market, otherwise the market will sometimes give you a fright and make you suffer.
Soros is a well-deserved number one investor in the world. Since he entered the field of international finance, few people can compare with him in his impressive achievements. Maybe some investors will make amazing achievements in a year or two, but it is very rare for Pixel Ross to perform well for decades. Although he has experienced painful failures, he can always overcome them and get up from where he fell, and he will become stronger. He is like an "evergreen tree" in the financial market, attracting many gold diggers who are eager to succeed.
Some people also call Soros a "financial killer" and a "devil". The speculative fund he led made waves in the financial market, turned the tide and swept away the wealth of many countries. Empty the pockets of thousands of people, make them poor overnight, and become the target of public criticism. However, Soros has never concealed that as an investor, his goal is to maximize profits. He once defended himself by saying that he speculates to make money just to make money. In the transaction, it is normal that some people gain and some people lose. He didn't hurt anyone. He won't feel guilty about anyone who suffered losses in the transaction, because he may also suffer losses.
Regardless of being called a financial wizard or a financial killer, Soros's financial talent is recognized. His salary is at least higher than the GDP of 42 member countries of the United Nations, and his wealth can reach 42 countries, which is a full affirmation of his economic ability.
Although he is a controversial person, there is no doubt that he is also a very influential person.