The integration and liberalization of market economy are all adapted to this market!

1. The Federal Reserve controls interest rates.

Yes, the Fed can change its federal funds rate-overnight lending rate, which will affect the short-term interest rates of corporate loans and consumer loans. However, various long-term interest rates, such as 10-year US Treasury bonds or 30-year mortgage loans, all depend on the capital market, and are influenced by inflation trends, government budget deficits and overall capital demand and supply over time.

Recently, when the Federal Reserve began to implement its second round of "quantitative easing" monetary policy-by injecting more funds into the American economy and trying to lower long-term interest rates-the limitations of its influence were exposed. These long-term interest rates did fall a few weeks before the launch of the plan in June 5438+065438+ 10, but soon began to rise sharply. What is the reason?

First of all, the signs of economic strength have prompted many analysts to raise their expectations for economic growth this year, which means that the demand for funds will also increase-the greater demand for funds will translate into higher interest rates. Secondly, the tax reduction agreement reached between the White House and congressional leaders in June+February, 5438 will increase the government's debt this year, thus increasing the capital demand. Finally, some investors are worried that the Federal Reserve's "quantitative easing" plan may lead to an increase in inflation rate, which may lead to an increase in interest rates.

Low interest rates will continue.

That was not the case. Interest rates will continue to rise, not only because once the economy accelerates, the Fed will eventually raise short-term interest rates. Our recent research shows that the global capital demand is rising rapidly as emerging markets begin to set off one of the biggest building booms in history. The rapid economic growth and urbanization of developing countries, especially China, have stimulated the demand for housing, roads, ports, water supply and power systems, machinery and equipment. By 2030, the global annual investment demand may increase from the current 1 1 trillion dollars to 24 trillion dollars.

At the same time, global savings are unlikely to grow as fast as before, because countries around the world need to spend more money on pensions, medical care and other needs of the elderly population. It is predicted that by 2030, the gap between global savings and investment demand will be as high as 2.4 trillion US dollars. In addition, by definition, savings and investment must be equal, and this funding gap will push up interest rates.

American policymakers should keep interest rates low, make consumers spend more money and stimulate American economic growth. Compared with the recent credit bubble, the savings rate of American households is higher now; 20 10 personal savings rate rose from 2% in 2007 to nearly 6%. This will not only help people save money for retirement, but also benefit the long-term healthy development of the American economy: a higher national savings rate will help raise more funds for national investment. If any changes are needed, policy makers should encourage consumers to save more.

However, will more personal savings inhibit economic growth? If enterprises and governments increase investment, expand national production capacity, produce and provide more and better products and services, economic growth will not be inhibited. In the past, we invested too little, especially in infrastructure. According to the estimation of the American Society of Civil Engineers, in the next five years, in addition to our current annual investment of 400 billion US dollars, the United States needs to invest 2.2 trillion US dollars in transportation, water supply, energy, schools, waste disposal and public park construction to update the backward and aging infrastructure in China and help meet the growing demand.

These different types of investment will provide additional impetus for economic growth and offset the decline in consumer spending income. Now is the right time to start doing this, although interest rates are still close to the lowest level in history.

4. In order to support the real estate market and the American economy, it is necessary to retain the tax relief of mortgage interest.

Almost unnecessary. Reducing mortgage interest will be welcomed by owners, real estate agents and lending institutions, but its broader economic benefits are controversial.

According to the current law, American taxpayers can reduce the mortgage debt interest of their first house and second house by up to $6,543,800+,and they can also reduce the interest of home equity loans by $6,543,800+. Therefore, the law reduces the cost of owning a house and forms an incentive mechanism to urge people to take on additional mortgage debt-stimulating the growth of real estate and financial industry and increasing consumer spending.

However, these benefits also come at a cost: this interest relief reduces the federal government's revenue (it is expected to decrease by 20 1 year1/kloc-0.04 billion US dollars), thus increasing the budget deficit. It also encouraged American families to take on more debts than when there was no relief, thus fueling the real estate market bubble that eventually led to the financial crisis. In sharp contrast, Canada did not implement this tax relief policy for mortgage loans, but its housing market was healthier and its leverage ratio was lower, avoiding the ups and downs of the American-style Great Prosperity and the Great Depression. President Obama's Finance Committee suggested that mortgage interest relief should be strictly limited, which is a step in the right direction.

Raising interest rates is not good for the American economy.

In fact, in many ways, compared with the extremely low interest rates in recent years, raising interest rates appropriately will be more beneficial to the US economy. Higher interest rates will benefit savers (especially retirees and pension funds), thus encouraging families to save more.

Higher interest rates will also limit the emergence of financial bubbles, curb speculative and over-leveraged investments, and encourage more investments that can effectively increase the potential economic growth rate, such as expanding the national broadband network, developing new green technologies, and transforming backward and aging infrastructure.

Higher interest rates will also make corporate executives pay more attention to the return on their capital investment and always remind them to ensure that every penny they spend can get more benefits. This can improve the productivity of the whole country, and improving productivity is the key to continuously improve people's living standards over time.