At present, new rapeseed has been weighed in some areas of the market. In Hunan, the price of rapeseed with 37% oil content is 1.8 yuan/kg, in Sichuan, the price of rapeseed with 35% oil content is 13%, and the price of rapeseed with 35% oil content is 1.6- 1.7 yuan/kg. However, due to the influence of China's national reserve, the market generally expects the price of Hubei rapeseed to be 1.7- 1.8 yuan/kg this year. However, according to the author's visit to oil plants, farmers and agricultural development bank, it is found that different classes have different expectations of prices. Affected by the difficulty in recovering loans last year, the Agricultural Development Bank set the scale price of 1.6 yuan this year. Oil plants generally think that 1.7 yuan is reasonable, and farmers hope that the higher the better, the lowest expectation 1.8 yuan.
At present, the cost of imported rapeseed is rising, reaching 4,000 yuan/ton last weekend. Because of the high oil content and low moisture impurities in foreign rapeseed, the price difference between domestic and foreign rapeseed is 400-500 yuan, so the imported rapeseed of 4,000 yuan/ton is about 3,500-3,600 yuan/ton converted into domestic rapeseed. In the early stage, the international rapeseed price was much lower than the domestic rapeseed price, which led to a large number of international rapeseed imports and had a huge impact on the domestic vegetable oil industry. However, due to mixed water and other reasons, the rapeseed handed over by farmers to the State Reserve did not actually reach 2.2 yuan/kg. According to the author's investigation and statistics, the price paid by farmers to the State Reserve is roughly equivalent to 1.9 yuan/kg, so in fact, farmers have not fully enjoyed the benefits of the state policy of supporting the market. The purchase by the State Reserve is equivalent to the state subsidizing international rapeseed. Under the current circumstances, it is expected that the country will once again issue specific rules for temporary storage of rapeseed, in which the cost of imported rapeseed will definitely be considered, so as to avoid the mutual loss between oil plants and farmers as in the soybean market in 2008. For various reasons, the national purchasing and storage price cannot be too high. According to the current guiding purchase price of Agricultural Development Bank 1.6 yuan/kg and the price of international rapeseed converted into domestic rapeseed 1.75 yuan/kg, I personally judge that the current national purchasing and storage may be around 1.8 yuan/kg, and the purchase volume is about 3 million tons.
As we all know, many farmers switched from planting wheat to planting rape in 2008-09 because of the high efficiency of rape planting in the previous year. The author set out from Wuhan to Jingzhou, and found in Zhongxiang area that all kinds of rape were planted on both sides of the road, but last year Zhongxiang area was still a wheat field. In 2008-09, the sown area of rapeseed in China reached 7 million hectares, an increase of 500,000 hectares over the previous year, and the output also reached130,000 tons, an increase of120,000 tons over the previous year. The sown area of rapeseed in Hubei reached 6.5438+0.85 million mu, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year, and the output reached more than 2 million tons, an increase of 654.38+0.2% over the previous year. At the same time, the world rapeseed production has also increased significantly. According to the estimation of USDA, the output of rapeseed in 2008-09 reached 5,683 tons, 8.4 million tons more than the previous year.
At present, the domestic vegetable oil market is operated by soybean oil and palm oil market, and its market share is gradually decreasing. At the same time, affected by the financial crisis, the consumption of vegetable oil has declined, enterprises have reduced production, stopped production or even closed down, and migrant workers have returned home, which will greatly reduce the demand for vegetable oil. The increase in supply and the decrease in demand have led to a bleak outlook for the oil market.
Recently, due to the continuous rebound of crude oil, global soybeans continued to erupt, stimulating CBOT soybean oil to continue to rise; With the continuous decrease of BMD palm oil inventory, the arrival of summer and the arrival of palm oil consumption peak, BMD palm oil has also reached a new high since September 2008; Rising sea freight price, rising oil arrival price in Hong Kong, and favorable expectations of the national reserve market for China have all led to the recent rebound of oil futures. RO909 contract was 7950 yuan/ton as of last Friday, and there may be room for rebound in the near future. However, the author believes that at present, oil has entered a period of high volatility and high risks have intensified. At the same time, due to the poor fundamentals of rapeseed oil itself, the supply has increased significantly. In 2009, domestic stocks including imported rapeseed and the listing of new rapeseed this year added up to nearly17.5 million tons of rapeseed supply, while the demand side was affected by the financial crisis, which caused enterprises to stop production and close down and migrant workers to return home. Market oil is affected by soybean oil replacing vegetable oil and crowding out vegetable oil market, which makes the demand for vegetable oil strong. At the same time, although the futures vegetable oil rebounded sharply recently, the price increase of spot vegetable oil was really small, and the transaction was relatively light. Spot sales also limit the trend of futures prices, and the credit policy of the Agricultural Development Bank also limits the room for vegetable oil to rise.
Through the author's recent visits to oil plants, farmers, vegetable vendors and relevant people of the Agricultural Development Bank, it is found that people in the market are not very optimistic about the late trend of vegetable oil spot, and think that the current situation is not clear, but it is more likely to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the later period, and vegetable oil is more likely to be confined to the range of 6500-8500. The author believes that the recent rapid rise in oil and fat is more of a speculation on the national reserve. After the introduction of the national reserve, it may turn into profit, so after the relevant policies come out, the market will probably enter adjustment. Recently, investors pay close attention to national reserves and market prices.
This is my collected opinion, you can refer to it yourself!