The cleaning building was mainly put forward after the lightning explosion of Evergrande, aiming at people's livelihood, so that people who buy houses would not draw water with a sieve. It's amazing not to accept the house and pay the mortgage every month, so the idea of affordable housing is put forward, but some enterprises are disobedient. It must not be understood that the country is taking the old road. I know that some interest groups have to take it out of context, confuse the audience and confuse black and white. Just like last year, they speculated that the mortgage interest rate would go up, and buying early would save more money. In the end, the buyer bears all the pain, but the intermediary earns a large commission!

First, the CBRC said that the momentum of the real estate financial bubble has been substantially reversed, indicating that the overall situation has been set and the country is not worried that the real estate bubble will rise again! This sentence does not mean that the country should take the old road, but that the country has achieved initial results in the real estate bubble, and will continue to resolve the real estate risks and bubbles later. Yes, the real estate situation this year can be said to be more than expected, otherwise, China will not lower the mortgage interest rate to control the curvature of the real estate value regression curve.

In the next five years, China real estate is likely to go out of the L-shaped trend chart, that is to say, house prices need to fall back to a reasonable range, and then sideways for a period of time. When people's income rises due to economic transformation and upgrading, house prices will rise slowly, because there is already real estate tax at that time, and the population aging is more serious, with millions of people experiencing negative growth every year, so the house prices in core cities will not soar as in the past, but will only rise slowly with inflation, similar to the trend chart after the bubbles in Europe, Japan and South Korea. Unless there is such a global water release in 20 years, house prices will not rise sharply, but if there is a global water release, the stock market will definitely rise even more than the housing market.

Second, we must not be taken out of context by some people, or even fooled by turning black and white. For example, here are their tricks. Last year, we vowed that house prices would rise forever and mortgage interest rates would rise again. What about this year? Nowadays, some people make fake stories so professionally that many white people can't tell whether it is official news or not. They spread rumors under the guise of "relevant departments". These people are bad! The disorderly development of real estate interest groups is an important reason why the real estate bubble in China deviates from the healthy and orderly development. Whenever there is a problem in the real estate interest chain, it will fan the flames and create public panic.

There is nothing new to talk about real estate. Basically, we've finished talking. At most, it is based on the latest fundamental data to sort it out. As for real estate, it is clear to look through historical articles, especially the latest 10,000-word article of 2/kloc-0. For the final logic of when to buy a house, please refer to the article "When is the best time to buy a house? 500 words tell the ultimate logic of buying a house. Nothing else, just reading the gossip.

Third, under the core and basic crowd, any behavior against the general trend is mantis! Don't be disturbed by the messy little news and false phenomena outside, just keep an eye on the core basic disk. The following figure shows the revised data after the Seventh National Education Plan. The available data estimate that the population born in 22 years is about 9.5 million. The family structure of 42 1 means that most of China's afterwaves will not be troubled by the lack of a house, but because of the pressure of property tax and the problem of parents' providing for the elderly. On the systematic analysis of China real estate trend, I think there is nothing more comprehensive than me. My theory comprehensively considers population, aging, urbanization, domestic and international environment, economic transformation and upgrading and so on.

Forecasting is different from guessing, and it needs to be well-founded and logically complete. Many people regard nonsense as a prediction. The two main lines are clear. The first is the reality: whether the absolute price of housing, the ratio of house price to income, the ratio of house price to rent and the debt ratio of residents are reasonable. Historical articles have explained that these indicators are far from the normal curve. The other is that we can spy out the future development trend as an indicator: the core of the relationship between supply and demand of the birth population, urbanization, economic transformation and upgrading, solving the financial difficulties of land, vacancy rate and so on. Needless to say, the core birth population, from 18 to now, the actual population is also consistent with my previous analysis.

Urbanization has reached its peak, and the subsequent urbanization will rise passively with the natural change of population and the death of the elderly population. The voice of reason is very important in a society. Don't be a silent person. Life is two, two, three, three things. By influencing people around you, people around you influence people around you, and so on, a mighty rational force will be generated, and you can overcome irrationality. Don't wait for the tragedy to subside, it will be too late! We can all be the source of rational power. I started from 18, and now I have influenced a group of people. Come on, everybody.