The “tide of interest rate hikes” affecting the whole country is coming!

In many first- and second-tier star cities, there have been news of increases in mortgage interest rates.

The five major state-owned banks took the lead, and other joint-stock banks followed, which became the signature move of the property market in these star cities.

As a home buyer, are you ready?

01

Shenzhen has moved, Guangzhou has moved, and the two heroes in the Greater Bay Area have become the leaders of this mortgage "interest rate hike wave."

The first to take action was Shenzhen Construction Bank.

After the increase in mortgage interest rates, the interest rates for first-time home loans are 5.10, and the interest rates for second-home loans are 5.60. Compared with the previous increases of 15BP and 35BP respectively, the interest rates for affordable commercial housing loans are still 4.95, which remains unchanged.

From the actions of the benchmark China Construction Bank, it can be seen that the Shenzhen housing loan interest rate increase has three obvious characteristics:

First, state-owned banks took the lead in "raising interest rates." After China Construction Bank "raised interest rates", the four major banks of Industry, Agriculture, China and Communications followed closely behind, and some other large joint-stock banks also quickly followed suit. However, some small and medium-sized banks are still waiting and watching. Major state-owned banks have become the bellwether for interest rate hikes, with strong political connotations, and regulation of the property market has been stepped up again.

Second, the base interest rate of the 5-year LPR remains unchanged, and the adjustment is to add points. Once the number of additional points is determined, the entire repayment cycle remains unchanged, and will only fluctuate with the LPR in the future;

The second is a differentiated "interest rate increase", the first set needs to be increased by 15 BP, and the second set will be increased by 35 BP. The interest rate adjustment range for second-home mortgages is higher than the interest rate for first-home mortgages, and the points bonus for affordable commercial homes with security attributes remain unchanged.

According to statistics, nearly 10 bank branches in Shenzhen currently implement the first set of 5.1 and the second set of 5.6 interest rate levels. This means that cheap housing loans are a scarce resource in the Shenzhen market.

Shenzhen is taking action, and the big brother in Guangzhou is not willing to lag behind and takes frequent actions.

Mortgage interest rates in Guangzhou have increased for four consecutive periods, with two increases in April alone.

At the end of April and the beginning of May, many banks in Guangzhou, including major state-owned banks, raised mortgage interest rates again. The interest rate for first-time home loans was adjusted to a minimum of 5.40, and the lowest for second-home loans was 5.6, both increased by 10 BP from before.

In addition to the two first-tier cities of Shenzhen and Guangzhou, many banks in other new first-tier and second-tier cities have also begun to raise mortgage interest rates.

The four major banks in Hangzhou raised the interest rate for the first home from 5.2 to 5.4, and the interest rate for the second home from 5.38 to 5.5. The increase for the first home was even higher than that for the second home. This may be due to the strict price limit for new homes in Hangzhou. Seriously, I'm too enthusiastic about new releases.

On May 20, banks in Ningbo also collectively raised mortgage interest rates.

Currently, mainstream banks in Ningbo such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, and Minsheng Bank have generally raised housing mortgage loan interest rates by 10 BP, with the first-time home rate raised to 5.45. , the second suite is adjusted to 5.7.

The first home loan interest rate in Nanchang has risen from 5.65 to 6.125. Among them, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China and other banks are mainly around 5.88. The interest rate for second home mortgages is between 5.8-6.37.

From a national perspective, interest rate increases on mortgage loans have become mainstream.

According to the monitoring data of mortgage interest rates in 42 key cities across the country by Rong360 Big Data Research Institute, in May 2021 (April 20-May 18), the average interest rate for first-time home loans nationwide was 5.33, a month-on-month increase of 2BP.

The average interest rate for second home loans is 5.61, an increase of 2BP from the previous month.

This is the fourth consecutive month that the national average mortgage interest rate has increased month-on-month.

It is certain that the nationwide “interest rate hike wave” is really coming!

Shenzhen's landmark "SEG style" and popular first- and second-tier cities have collectively enjoyed a surge in activity, once again increasing regulation on the property market.

02

The national mortgage "interest rate hike" wave is coming, but Beijing and Shanghai have unique scenery.

Among the first-tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai continue to sit firmly at the Diaoyutai level, maintaining their original levels. The average interest rates for first home loans are 5.20 and 4.65 respectively.

It can be seen that this "tide of interest rate hikes" implements an asymmetric structure of interest rate hikes between cities.

Do you know which city has the highest mortgage interest rate in the country?

The first reaction of many home buyers must be that the hottest and most expensive places in the city have the highest interest rates.

Actually, you are wrong! The highest commercial loans in the country are:

Kaifeng (first house 6.13, second house 6.35) Luoyang (first house 6.13, second house 6.37) Chengdu (first house 6.13, second house 6.27)

Look at the courage of the cities in the Midwest. The interest rates are indeed very fierce!

Unexpectedly, without knowing it, the commercial loan interest rate for a first-time home in Shanghai is one of the lowest in the country. (The first home mortgage is still 4.65).

Don’t you think this is weird? Housing prices in Shanghai are the most expensive, but commercial loan interest rates are the cheapest!

This time the national mortgage “interest rate hike wave”, other star cities continue to raise mortgage interest rates, Shanghai not only does not follow, but also continues to maintain the lowest interest rate level in the country.

For a time, Shanghai has become a low point for mortgage interest rates in the country. The interest rates are obviously inverted with those of other star cities, and the interest rate dividends are prominent.

There are two reasons behind this profound concentration.

On the one hand, as Shanghai is a financial center, the overall amount of funds among banks is relatively large, and the current credit lines are still relatively loose.

On the other hand, the Shanghai property market is currently relatively stable. The control measures in the past are in place, and there is no need to add more pressure.

Shanghai’s current mortgage interest rates have become an additional reward for every Shanghai house buyer!

03

A distinctive feature of this “interest rate hike wave” is that:

Unlike the past several interest rate hikes, which were all for second-home properties, this time The interest rates for first-time and second-time homes will be raised in tandem, and the first-time home will not be able to escape.

So why do banks choose to raise interest rates on first-time home buyers who are in immediate need?

The most fundamental thing is that the total loan quota of banks in many cities is not enough.

At the same time, senior management has set rigid targets for banks in the early stage. Three red lines cannot be crossed, and the proportion of mortgage loans needs to be strictly controlled.

So everyone can understand why banks are increasing mortgage interest rates while reducing the proportion of mortgage loans.

This is essentially forcibly reducing leverage for banks, and at the same time, it is also forcibly reducing leverage for home buyers.

At this time, many people who originally planned to buy a house may have conflicts in their hearts.

Now that mortgage interest rates have risen, especially if they may continue to rise in the future, can I still buy a house? Isn’t the pressure on mortgage loans even greater after buying a house?

Please note: In some hot cities, the biggest problem for home buyers is not whether you can buy it, but that your qualifications to be a house slave may be in jeopardy.

Because even if interest rates are raised, many banks simply don’t have the extra mortgage credit to lend you!

At present, after the hot cities in the national real estate market have centralized management of mortgage loans, many banks have tightened their mortgage quotas and made their review more stringent. They also have strict requirements for proof of down payment funds and social security certificates.

Moreover, the loan cycle has become longer, with the average loan time in hot cities extending from 1-2 months to 3-6 months, and even the second-hand housing business in some cities has been stopped directly.

Loans are expensive and difficult, which will inevitably dampen the enthusiasm for home buying in relevant cities.

04

But one thing that is quite surprising is that in this wave of bank mortgage interest rate hikes, except for the real estate industry, other real industries have remained unchanged, and monetary policy remains the same.

It is a very typical asymmetric interest rate hike.

The root cause lies in stagflation! Money cannot be loose or tight, and it seems to have reached a dead end.

Please be wary of stagflation in the real economy. At present, the gap between the upstream and downstream of the real industry has widened for the second consecutive month.

After entering April, PPI quickly rose to 6.8, but CPI only recovered to 0.9. The scissor difference between the two is an astonishing 5.9.

Commodities such as rebar, coal, cement, etc. have risen even more sharply, but the recovery of consumption is still very slow.

The big-ticket investors in the upper reaches have their mouths full of oil. The “996” consumers have not had their wages raised for many years, and their consumption recovery has been sluggish, and they can no longer afford to pay for upstream price increases.

The worst offenders are the business owners in the midstream! Rising raw material costs cannot be transmitted downstream.

The real manufacturing industry is seriously involved. The only way out is to clear production capacity, but the consequence is a massive shrinkage of jobs. This is a price that no one can afford.

Now that mortgage interest rates are rising to cool down the property market, another purpose is to reduce the ratio of real estate loans and increase the proportion of real estate loans while maintaining the same total amount, so as to protect entities as a top priority.

After all, stagflation is rolling in. With more than 9.09 million graduates this year, maintaining employment is the top priority.

05

Finally, two sincere suggestions for everyone.

First, if you are in Shanghai and have plans to buy a house this year, you should get on the bus as soon as possible if you really need it.

At present, major first- and second-tier cities are raising interest rates one after another. The current Shanghai mortgage interest rate has huge dividends. Everyone needs to seize the window period as soon as possible.

Secondly, in the second-hand housing market, buyers with high down payments or even full payment are more popular. Sellers may be willing to lose a little bit of house price and be more willing to receive the payment as soon as possible.

So for friends who want to exchange or just need it, use all channels to prepare as much cash as possible. This is the best way.