Although the landing of LPR once triggered a public opinion discussion on whether the mortgage interest rate will rise, judging from the new LPR and the extra points in various places, the monthly supply for purchasing the first suite and the second suite has not changed much. Some front-line practitioners also told reporters that the "anchor change" of mortgage interest rate did not directly affect the front-line sales level.
The cost of Guangzhou-Shenzhen loan increased slightly.
According to the new loan market quotation (LPR) announced by the central bank on September 20th, the one-year LPR is 4.20%, down by 5 basis points, but the LPR linked to the mortgage interest rate of more than five years remains unchanged at 4.85%. All localities have the autonomy to increase LPR points. According to the latest report released by Yiju Research Institute, the interest rate of LPR mortgage in 1 1 first-and second-tier cities increased slightly compared with September, while that in three third-and fourth-tier cities decreased slightly.
In the first-tier cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the interest rate of LPR mortgage in June was 5438+ 10, which was slightly higher than that in September. Among them, in June, the price of the first home mortgage in Guangzhou was 5438+00, which was not lower than LPR plus 56BP, and the interest rate changed from 5.39% to 5.41%; The second suite is not less than LPR plus 79BP, and the interest rate is maintained at 5.64%. 10 In June, the mortgage price in Shenzhen was not lower than LPR plus 30BP for the first suite, and the interest rate was maintained at 5. 15%, and not lower than LPR plus 60BP for the second suite, and the interest rate changed from 5.39% to 5.45%.
Beijing and Shanghai have also changed. In Beijing, the LPR of the first suite and the second suite increased by 55 BP and 105BP respectively at 5438+00 in June, and the interest rate of the second suite of 5.90% was also the highest among the four first-tier cities. Shanghai is one of the few cities that keep preferential mortgage interest rates. According to the requirements of LPR, the LPR of the second home loan needs to be increased by 60BP, so the interest rate of the second home loan reaches 5.45%, while the interest rate of the first home loan is only 5BP, and the interest rate of 4.95% is also the lowest in the first-tier cities.
With this change, the interest rates of the first home loan in Guangzhou and the second home loan in Shenzhen have both increased. Has the loan cost increased? According to the report of Yiju Research Institute, according to the standard of loan 1 10,000, loan term of 30 years and equal repayment of principal and interest, the monthly loan for the first home in Guangzhou was 5,622 yuan in June, 5438+00, an increase of 654.38+03 yuan compared with September, and the monthly loan for the second home in Shenzhen was 5,460 yuan, an increase of 38 yuan compared with September.
The monthly supply pressure has not changed much.
From the calculation results of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, although the monthly interest paid by the lender has increased after the interest rate adjustment, the increase is only a fraction of the monthly payment, which can be basically ignored.
The housing prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are already at a high level, but even if the mortgage loan is calculated by the method of 3 million yuan and 30 years of equal principal and interest repayment, the monthly interest paid by the lender is still less than 100 yuan, which has no obvious impact on the buyers. "After the base interest rate is superimposed on the lower limit of the Guangzhou market interest rate, the increase in mortgage interest rate is affirmative, but the increase is almost negligible." Luo Chunxian, manager of Guangzhou Patrol Real Estate Agency Co., Ltd. believes that the market will have a smooth transition.
Although the monthly mortgage payment in many cities has increased slightly after the mortgage interest rate reform, some cities have declined. According to the statistics of Yiju Research Institute, in Foshan, which is adjacent to Guangzhou, the base point of LPR in June was the first set of 63BP and the second set of 85BP, corresponding to the interest rates of the first and second home loans of 5.48% and 5.70% respectively, which was lower than that in September. According to the mortgage loan 1 10,000 yuan, the 30-year equal principal and interest calculation, Foshan is 1 month.
According to the report of Yiju Research Institute, the adjustment of LPR mortgage interest rate has not caused too much pressure on the original monthly supply, and the monthly supply has changed very little, which will basically not cause too much interference to buyers, or can be ignored. From the perspective of urban structure, the burden of second-tier cities will increase relatively, while the burden of third-and fourth-tier cities will not be too obvious, and even the phenomenon of burden reduction will occur.
However, due to the specific implementation of lending is commercial banks, some banks may adopt slightly higher or lower interest rates, so when handling housing mortgage loans, they still need to consult the banks about the specific implementation interest rates.
The direct impact of market transactions has not yet been reflected.
People who have had the experience of buying a house with a loan should have the impression that it usually takes a certain waiting period, even if it takes several months at the earliest, from online signing, loan approval, transfer and certification, and then to bank lending. If it is a combination loan of "provident fund+commercial loan", multi-head approval will further lengthen the waiting period. Therefore, although 10 will implement the New Deal on June 8, in fact, since September, it is possible for buyers to adopt the mortgage interest rate after "changing the anchor".
However, some front-line sales practitioners believe that the direct impact of the current mortgage "anchor change" on market transactions is not so quickly reflected. Dong Mo Jianguo, Guangzhou Huayuan Branch of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters that his shop is north of Tianhe, and most of the transactions around it are degree rooms. Buyers are mostly families with improved needs, learning to change degree rooms for their children, and the demand for three to four rooms is 40,000-45,000 yuan/square meter.
"A degree room is just needed by many families, and these buyers will not care too much about the mortgage interest rate. The most important thing is that the property is suitable. " Mo Jianguo said that in September, the transaction volume of second-hand houses showed an upward trend. "Many families hope to finalize the house problem before the Spring Festival." It is expected that the second-hand housing transaction volume will increase steadily in the rest of the second half of this year, even if the LPR New Deal has an impact, the overall impact is not great.
According to the report of Yiju Research Institute, the adjustment of the latest LPR interest rate will not have a substantial impact on the cost of mortgage, but more impact will be reflected in the adjustment of loan pricing methods, that is, there will be more room for independent adjustment of subsequent interest rates. Judging from the recent policies in the mortgage market, "housing and not speculating" is an important guiding ideology, which also determines that the mortgage policy will not be relaxed in the short term. However, with the further easing of the financial environment and the cyclical adjustment of the real estate market, it is expected that the LPR mortgage interest rate will be further lowered.
■ Expert:
The phenomenon of "upside down" financing interest rates of entities and real estate is expected to change.
"The new policy of interest rate marketization is expected," Dr. Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, told Nanfang Daily reporter.
On the surface, the New Deal is to link mortgage with LPR, but in essence, it is to decouple mortgage from LPR and establish a "firewall" between the property market and funds, so that the central bank can implement loose monetary policy in the future, reduce MLF, and then reduce the cost of entity financing. Li believes that "changing the anchor" of loan pricing will change the phenomenon of "upside down" of financing interest rates between entities and real estate in the past, and will also fundamentally control capital spillover, reduce the occupation of low-cost funds by real estate, and increase the cost of housing loans for multiple houses.
What may happen in the future is that after two months or a year, the mortgage interest rate is completely different. With the advancement of interest rate marketization, if you want to get a second home loan (stop the third home loan) in the future, you are likely to have to pay a higher interest rate, which may be LPR plus several hundred basis points. Even, whoever pays high interest will give it to him; Whoever pays high interest will get the loan faster. In the past, investment in real estate rarely considered the cost of loans, and more was "whether you can borrow" and "the more loans, the better". Buying a house will become a professional job in the future. To calculate the loan cost, transaction cost and transaction cycle (normalization of restricted sales in hot cities), we should also consider whether the income from selling houses in the future can offset the cost. In this way, "no speculation in the house" gradually formed.