Industry experts said that the central bank's move will help financial institutions to do a good job in liquidity management and maintain the smooth operation of money market interest rates.
Increase the intensity of open market operations.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that historically, after the Spring Festival and before the Spring Festival, a large amount of cash flowed back to the banking system, and the seasonal liquidity demand of the banking system declined. Therefore, the central bank generally suspended the reverse repurchase operation in the open market and naturally returned liquidity through reverse repurchase.
Compared with 20 19, the Spring Festival holiday lasts from February 4th to 10. Wind data shows that in the first week after the holiday (February 1 1 7) * * * 680 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 393 billion yuan of medium-term loan facility (MLF) expired. At that time, the central bank did not hedge, and the central bank's liquidity instruments of 65.438+00.730 billion yuan all expired, realizing a natural net withdrawal.
In 2020, due to the holiday adjustment, this week (February 3-9) * * has1180 billion yuan of central bank reverse repurchase due, of which the central bank reverse repurchase due on February 3 (including the extended central bank reverse repurchase) is as much as105 billion yuan.
According to market analysis, the amount of funds due in the first week after the holiday this year is large and very concentrated, but the central bank's approach is also super-seasonal and has a great impact, which can ensure the abundant liquidity in the banking system and the smooth operation of the money market.
It is worth noting that Wen Bin pointed out that the central bank usually issues an announcement on the day of open market operation. This advance notice will help financial institutions to do a good job in liquidity management and maintain the smooth operation of money market interest rates.
Enhance confidence in financial markets
"On February 3, the stock market will usher in the first trading day after the holiday, and the demand for capital holdings of all parties will rise. This requires monetary policy to increase counter-cyclical operations and provide necessary guarantees for the smooth operation of financial markets." Li, a senior researcher at China Banking Research Institute, said.
"According to the normal situation, the current market is not short of money. However, considering the special factors of the epidemic, the timely release of a large amount of liquidity will help eliminate the panic of some investors. " Huang, chief economist of China Construction Bank, said that the central bank issued a clear policy intention in time, and market players made their own market judgments and adjusted their behaviors accordingly, which helped to avoid the market liquidity risk brought by synchronous operation.
Wen Bin said that the central bank's move reflected its determination to ensure liquidity supply and operational flexibility, and provided "reassurance" for financial institutions to support epidemic prevention and control, serve the real economy and maintain financial market stability, which was conducive to stabilizing financial institutions' expectations and boosting financial market confidence.
In Huang's view, the response measures launched by the central bank in this special period are not only important measures to stabilize the recent financial market, but also a strong signal to the market to fulfill the new mission of the central bank. It is suggested that the regulatory authorities seize the opportunity of relevant policies and measures to guide investors to concentrate on industry analysis and listed company analysis, rather than worrying about market liquidity.
Structural tool support is expected to increase.
Yif Wang, chief analyst of the banking industry of Everbright Securities Research Institute, said that the next phase of monetary policy may be adjusted as follows: First, the easing situation will continue, the overall liquidity will be abundant, and the interest rate of funds will be marginalized; Second, the structural support will be further increased; Third, it is imperative to lower the quoted interest rate (LPR) in the loan market, and the RRR cut and MLF interest rate cut are expected; Fourth, it is not excluded that the central bank will cut the benchmark deposit interest rate.
Li believes that in the future, the situation of epidemic prevention and control will remain an important variable leading the operation of financial markets, and financial risks in some regions and some industries will rise, especially the debt repayment pressure of some small and medium-sized enterprises may increase. In the future, all departments need to take measures to prevent excessive fluctuations in the financial market and pay more attention to guiding financial resources to gather in key regions, industries and enterprises to fight the epidemic.
Li said that low-cost funds can be provided to financial institutions by means of standing loan facilities, refinancing and rediscounting; Guide the downward trend of MLF interest rate and LPR, and reduce the financing cost of enterprises.