There are mainly the following reasons.
First, the decline in interest rates is a trend. According to statistics. Since 1990, the fixed interest rate in China has been falling. It has never been raised. And most developed countries have zero or negative interest rates. China's economy has developed rapidly. Step by step from developing countries to developed countries. It is also an established fact that interest rates are falling.
Second, financial instruments stimulate domestic economic development. Although China's economy has maintained a rapid growth, according to statistics, China's current economic downward pressure is greater. At the beginning of 2020, the People's Bank of China has lowered the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks. According to the past situation, this is definitely another interest rate cut after the RRR cut.
Third, affected by the epidemic, China should resume work and production. Maintain the vitality of market economy and develop economy. It is inevitable to invest a lot of money in market operation. Promote the development of market economy. Reduce bank interest rates. It is an important means for a large amount of funds to flow into the market.
How will bank interest rates be adjusted in 2020?
First of all, it must be clear that bank interest rates are divided into loan interest rates and deposit interest rates.
On October 8, 20 19 19, the loan interest rate was officially anchored, and the benchmark loan interest rate stipulated by the former People's Bank of China was used as a reference, and the interest rate pricing mechanism was changed to the loan market quotation (LPR).
According to the trend of LPR this year, the latest five-year LPR is 4.75%, down 5 basis points from the beginning of the year.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the country's determination to support the real economy will not waver in the short term. Therefore, I think that the trend of LPR interest rate this year is steady and declining, but the range will not be too large.
Moreover, there are policies above and countermeasures below. Under the high storage cost of banks, even if the LPR interest rate is falling, banks will still take their original actual loan interest rate as a reference for foreign lending in order to ensure their own profit margin.
For example, the foreign quoted interest rate of a bank mortgage product is higher than the original PBOC benchmark interest rate by 10%, that is, 4.9%× 1. 1=5.39%. After taking the LPR interest rate as a reference, banks can raise the existing LPR interest rate of 4.75% by 64 basis points to maintain the original mortgage interest rate.
Therefore, many people think that the LPR interest rate is falling, but when you actually apply for a mortgage loan, the interest rate is still at the original level.
Therefore, even if the LPR interest rate still has room to fall, not many borrowers will really benefit from it. Just like the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, it still can't stop the stock market from plummeting, which is a truth.
On the whole, the expected decline in loan interest rate in 2020 will remain unchanged, but the decline will not be too large.
Many people think that the deposit interest rate in China may also be lowered in 2020.
Indeed, under the influence of the epidemic, interest rate cuts can really activate market liquidity, guide banks to lower loan interest rates, and let bank funds support the development of the real economy. At the same time, it helps to stimulate depositors to take out the funds deposited in the bank for investment and consumption.
However, as mentioned above, let's take the Federal Reserve as an example. Cutting interest rates may not really reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
Moreover, China has always been a big savings country, so it will be counterproductive to cut interest rates blindly to stimulate the recovery of the market economy.
Monetary easing can indeed stimulate the release of market liquidity in the short term, but in the long run, depositors are reluctant to deposit their funds in banks after interest rate cuts, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in bank cash reserves, difficulty for banks to absorb and store, and an increase in operating costs, which is also not conducive to the healthy development of the market. After all, the current deposit interest rate in China is already at a relatively low level, so it is not particularly desirable to cut interest rates.
Moreover, at present, the epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, and all walks of life are gradually returning to work. The central bank has used a variety of tools to inject liquidity into the market, such as reducing RRR and providing banks with small exclusive loan funds to support agriculture, which effectively ensures market liquidity.
Therefore, in 2020, the possibility of lowering the deposit interest rate is relatively low.
In the short term, it is unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates, so there is no need to worry that the benchmark interest rate will change to a certain extent, but for the actual implementation interest rate of banks, it is still biased towards downward adjustment. The purpose is very simple, that is, to urge some bank deposits to be used for new investment and consumption, but this has little impact on the current stable investment market, because the adjustment is more about the relative interest rate of the medium and high-risk investment market.
At present, all financial institutions and banks will float the real interest rate according to the benchmark interest rate set by the central bank. Generally speaking, this range is stable at around 30%~40%, while the floating upper limit given by the central bank is 50%. However, in order to stabilize the current financial market, few banks will directly raise the execution interest rate by about 50%.
Even though the current bank deposit certificates with higher thresholds generally start from 200,000 yuan and 500,000 yuan, the interest rate fluctuation is only 45%~55%, but the floating interest rate of most bank deposit certificates is basically maintained below 50%.
After entering 2020, another aspect of our concern about interest rates is that the current rigid redemption principle has been postponed for one year. In other words, the wealth management products with guaranteed capital and interest will also have a certain impact on the current interest rate. We can see that many wealth management platforms, including Bank official website, have released many new wealth management products with guaranteed capital and interest, and the annual floating interest rate is basically stable in the range of 4-5%.
The fluctuation of this interest rate is relatively high for the current bank benchmark interest rate, but its risk does not belong to deposits at all, nor does it belong to large deposit certificates, and it belongs entirely to bank characteristic savings or bank wealth management. Basically, it can be understood as smart deposits of private banks, and it is also in the limelight recently.
As a financial enthusiast, I have been paying close attention to the changes in bank interest rates. Let me answer this question, hoping to help you.
Up to now, one and a half months have passed in 2020. Let's take a look at what has happened to monetary policy in the past month and a half.
After entering 2020, the People's Bank of China announced an overall RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points, releasing 800 billion yuan of liquidity to the market. Although RRR's interest rate cut is not the same as interest rate cut, it has a similar stimulating effect on the market, which will reduce the bank's capital cost and stimulate interest rate cut.
After the Spring Festival, in order to ensure market liquidity, taking into account the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the need for the A-share market to open normally within a predetermined period of time, the People's Bank of China launched a reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan. On February 4th, the People's Bank of China continued to release liquidity and carried out 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase, so the market liquidity was very abundant.
According to the policies already implemented above, the monetary policy in 2020 should be very loose. In this case, the interest rate is unlikely to rise, and it is likely to keep a downward trend until China's economy improves substantially.
Since we judge that bank interest rates will keep a downward trend in 2020, what can we learn from ordinary investors? Let's make a brief analysis.
First, the downward trend of interest rates is conducive to investment and entrepreneurship. In the case of loose money, the financing cost is lower, the effect of making money is better, and it is more suitable for entrepreneurs. If you have a good project, financing will be relatively easy now, especially for young people. It is a rare opportunity period.
Second, the yield of fixed-income wealth management products declined. Because the market liquidity has increased, it is less difficult for asset management institutions such as banks to obtain funds, so the given deposit interest rate will also decrease, which will lead to a decline in the yield of some powerless wealth management products, such as innovative deposits, certificates of deposit and money funds. At this time, if you want to deposit bank deposits or government bonds, you'd better choose five-year high-interest products and lock in the investment yield in advance.
Third, the effect of making money in the stock market began to appear. After the market is full of liquidity, funds will gradually flock to high-risk investments, and the stock market will be favored by investors. We have seen the outstanding performance of A-shares recently, and the GEM index has reached a new high, with obvious profit-making effect.
In short, according to the current situation, the bank interest rate in 2020 should be based on a steady downward trend. According to this trend, you can plan your investment in advance and strive for a higher return on investment.
What will happen to bank interest rates in 2020? In fact, as a financial person, I have been thinking about this issue. Now, after the epidemic, the national economy has almost stagnated, so this situation is actually quite complicated, and many people have not thought of it.
Well, if there is something wrong with the economy, it means that more people will borrow money and people will need money more. In this case, if the bank does not have enough funds, the interest rate will rise. If the loan side goes up, but the loan side goes up, the deposit side will go up anyway, so overall, I think the bank's interest rate will go up this year.
Alas, under the overall rising situation, the state will certainly release water to rescue small and medium-sized enterprises, large enterprises, state-owned enterprises and so on. That is to say, it will release more liquidity. In this case, some loans may be given certain preferential treatment, so the current interest rate situation is very fast, waiting for the national policy, because the epidemic has been affected for almost two to three months. If the latter is added, it may affect about a quarter.
The deposit interest rate of commercial banks is determined by floating on the basis of the central bank's benchmark interest rate, but it will eventually be reported to the People's Bank of China for the record.
Judging from the current situation, it is unlikely that the deposit interest rate of commercial banks will be raised. At the end of 2065438+2009, many commercial banks began to lower the deposit interest rate.
On New Year's Day 1 in 2020, the central bank announced that the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be lowered by 0.5 percentage points on June 6, 1. After the RRR cut, the bank's capital cost will be reduced by about/kloc-0.5 billion yuan, and the bank's demand for deposits will also be reduced.
2. On the first day of stock market opening after the holiday, the central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations of 654.38+0.2 trillion yuan, including 900 billion yuan for 7-day reverse repurchase operations, 300 billion yuan for 654.38+0.4-day reverse repurchase operations, and the operating interest rates were 2.4% and 2.55% respectively, both of which were 654.38+00 basis points lower than the previous operations. According to the market forecast, the reduction of the winning bid rate is expected to lead to the reduction of the LPR quotation in February.
3. At present, the downward pressure on the domestic economy is great, and the central bank is also taking measures to guide the reduction of bank loan interest rates, thus reducing the financing costs of enterprises and solving the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. The loan interest rate will probably decrease later, so the deposit interest rate may also decrease.
Now that the deposit and loan interest rates have become more market-oriented, commercial banks can adjust the deposit and loan interest rates independently according to their actual conditions, so it is expected that the central bank will raise interest rates in the short term. (End)
If 19 is the year of RRR reduction, then 20 years is the year of interest rate reduction, because there is no room for RRR reduction.
The minimum reserve ratio of financial institutions is around 7%. If it is lower, the risk will be great. Domestic financial institutions are divided into three levels. Although the reserve ratio of large banks is still above 10%, tertiary institutions have reached a low point and there is still room for interest rate cuts.
The impact of this disease on the economy cannot be underestimated. The interest rate cut is certain. The difference is only in frequency and range. The overall range 1% is very possible. It is expected that there will be three times this year, and the interest rate may be cut by 50 basis points in February.
I don't think the bank interest rate will be adjusted in 2020. At present, bank interest rates have changed greatly, such as mortgage interest rate, market base currency interest rate and so on. The benchmark interest rate adjusted by the central bank is a standard and benchmark, and this standard has been adjusted in recent years.
Since the central bank adjusted the benchmark interest rate in June 20 15, it has not been adjusted. At present, the annualized deposit rate is maintained at 0.35%, and the fixed annualized deposit rate is three months 1. 1%, six months 1.3%, one year 1.5%, and so on. However, the fact that the central bank has not made any adjustments does not mean that the banks have not made any adjustments.
Banks have a certain floating ratio of deposits and loans. For example, bank time deposits generally have a floating ratio of 10%-30%, real estate loans have a floating ratio of 20%, and corporate loans give floating ratios according to different risk levels.
Then this effect still exists in the tightness of the market currency. For example, if the market currency is abundant, the floating ratio of loans will be more relaxed, and the floating ratio of deposits will be more relaxed. If the market currency is tight, the ratio of up and down will tend to rise.
Judging from the current situation, I personally think that the bank interest rate in 2020 will tend to be loosely adjusted, that is, there will be some downward fluctuations compared with the level of 20 19. The money gradually put into the market will enrich the liquidity of the whole market. In the case of abundant liquidity, I think both the deposit interest rate and the loan interest rate have some room for downward adjustment.
Of course, the benchmark interest rate will not be adjusted in a high probability. The adjustment is the market monetary base interest rate LPR and the floating ratio of banks. In the past few days, many institutions have lowered the forecast of LPR in March 2020 by 65,438+00 basis points. The decline in the interest rate of market currency loans indicates that the market currency is relatively abundant. Then, on the basis of abundant money, I think the floating range of deposit interest rate will be somewhat loose, because the money in the market is abundant.
Therefore, my personal view is that the bank interest rate will not be adjusted in 2020, but the floating ratio will be loosened.
Recently, novel coronavirus in China has been obviously controlled, and social production and life have gradually returned to normal, so many people began to borrow money from banks, whether for business operations, personal consumption or housing loans. I believe everyone is more concerned about interest rates.
As for the adjustment of bank interest rates in 2020, I think there is a high probability that it will be lowered. This judgment is mainly based on the following two considerations.
In recent two years, the international economic environment is not very optimistic, and China's economy is also facing downward pressure. Therefore, since 20 19, the central bank has released a lot of funds to the market by reducing interest rates by RRR several times.
From 20 19 to now, the central bank has cut RRR five times in a row, including one in June 2020 and one in March 16.
After these RRR cuts, it is conservatively estimated that the accumulated funds released by the central bank to the market will reach at least 2 trillion yuan, greatly alleviating the tight situation of bank funds.
The level of bank loan interest rate, whether it is deposit interest rate or loan interest rate, has a great relationship with bank funds. Usually, when the bank's funds become plentiful, the interest rate in the corresponding market will also decrease. Therefore, it is estimated that the loan interest rate and deposit interest rate of the whole bank may continue to decline in 2020.
In recent two years, China's deposit interest rate has been rising, especially with some private banks participating in the deposit competition, the deposit market is more intense. Therefore, in order to absorb more deposits, major banks have continuously raised deposit interest rates. For example, the deposit interest rate in the first three years was generally only about 3.58%, but in the last two years, many small banks have been able to give more than 4% for three-year deposits and even more than 5.45% for five-year deposits.
However, some innovative deposits introduced by many small banks have disturbed the normal competitive order of banks to a certain extent, so the central bank issued some regulatory documents after seeing this problem.
For example, on March 9th, the central bank issued the Notice of the People's Bank of China on Strengthening the Management of Deposit Interest Rate. To sum up, this notice mainly includes the following contents:
1. Require banks to rectify irregular deposit products such as early withdrawal of time deposits and interest calculation by file, which can only be calculated at the current interest rate but not by file.
Two. Incorporate the guaranteed income of structured deposits into the scope of self-discipline management of interest rates.
Three. Incorporate the implementation of deposit interest rate management regulations and self-discipline requirements by deposit-taking financial institutions into the macro-prudential assessment (MPA), and guide the self-discipline mechanism of market interest rate pricing to incorporate the above situation into the qualified and prudent assessment of financial institutions.
After the central bank's regulatory policy comes out, it is expected that many small banks will stop smart deposits. These small banks can't casually set deposit prices, and they must strictly follow the relevant provisions of the Convention on Self-discipline of Bank Interest Rates.
It is foreseeable that after the formal implementation of the central bank's regulatory policies, the market deposit competition will be more orderly, and the corresponding deposit interest rate will also be reduced, so both the deposit interest rate and the loan interest rate may be further reduced in the future.
Once the loan interest rate drops, the cost of borrowing money can be reduced, and the interest on buying a house or borrowing money to do business will be reduced, which is very helpful for promoting economic recovery and development after the pneumonia epidemic.
Now the central bank's currency operation and epidemic situation, bank loan interest rate and deposit interest rate may be lowered in 2020.
Recently, the central bank put money10.7 trillion, which eased the market liquidity tension to some extent. The central bank's instructions on economic easing have been very clear. Due to the epidemic, many enterprises may encounter many difficulties after returning to work, and need a loose monetary environment to allow enterprises to obtain better financing. In a few days, LPR will announce the interest rate on the 20th. From now on, it seems that the interest rate of LPR will continue to be lowered and the interest rate will go down.
In order to ensure that SMEs can get cheaper financing loans, the central bank will continue to put liquidity into commercial banks. After the liquidity of the bank is guaranteed, the pressure on the debt side of the bank will be reduced, and the deposit interest rate of savings will be reduced.
I think the deposit and loan interest rates will be lowered to some extent in 2020. As for the degree of reduction, it depends on the impact of the epidemic on the economy.