The market was suddenly shocked: What happened to China's banking industry, which has never seen such a decline in net profit in recent years? Although it also depends on the bank's provision for bad debts, the profit rate can be adjusted.
In the view of Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhilian Finance, one of the reasons for the decline in bank profits is that it is beneficial to the real economy, rather than the deterioration of its own operating capacity. That is, this is a predictable result, but the decline rate exceeds the market expectation.
On the occasion of the release of important economic data in the middle of the year, officials from relevant ministries and commissions also made heavy voices.
On the same day, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said in an interview with the media that the guidance of monetary policy made the overall interest rate of the market go down, which led to a significant reduction in the financing cost of enterprises. The downward interest rate strongly supported the real economy, the loan structure was significantly optimized, and the number of market entities supported by inclusive small and micro loans increased significantly.
So, what is the biggest challenge in the second half of the year? Yi Gang said that the biggest challenge is how to accurately put drip irrigation into the real economy when answering a question given by the CCTV news "Relativity". He said that the support of the real economy must focus on small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises, which is the focus of the work of the People's Bank of China in the second half of the year.
Indeed, some real economies such as small and medium-sized enterprises are still hungry under the impact of the epidemic. ...
However, Yi Gang said that China's economy achieved its first global recovery because the COVID-19 epidemic was effectively controlled in China. In the second quarter, China's GDP rebounded strongly, increasing by 3.2% year-on-year, making it the only major economy with positive growth in the world.
For investors, under the background of increasingly complex macro-situation, at the current stage, high-quality banks may also have good medium and long-term buying points because of performance regulation.
"It is not the operation of the bank."
"Profit10.5 trillion is part of the reason for the decline in profits of commercial banks. According to the central bank, of this 1.5 trillion, the interest rate was cut by 930 billion and the bank charges were 320 billion. " On August 10, Wu Chaoming, vice president of Caixin Research Institute, told the Economic Observer.
He explained that in addition, it is estimated that under the impact of the epidemic, some enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, went bankrupt and lost money, which led to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of banks, which was also the reason for the decline in profit growth. It is expected that with the expiration of supporting policies such as loan extension next year, unexposed non-performing loans will appear one after another, which will form a new test for bank profits.
According to the data of China Banking Regulatory Commission, at the end of the second quarter of 2020, the balance of loans from banking financial institutions (including loans for small and micro enterprises, loans for individual industrial and commercial households and loans for small and micro enterprises) was 40.7 trillion yuan, of which the balance of loans for inclusive small and micro enterprises with a total credit of 65.438+million yuan and below was 654.38+03.7 trillion yuan, up 654.38+07.7% year-on-year, and the loans for affordable housing projects were 6.6 trillion yuan.
"This is very rare in recent years, mainly due to the influence of COVID-19 and the result of increasing profits to the real economy." Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhilian Finance, told Economic Observer Network. He pointed out that in the first half of this year, the net profit of China Commercial Bank decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, and the average capital profit rate and asset profit rate also decreased.
Dong Ximiao explained that in the first half of the year, with the downward pressure on the economy and the overlapping impact of the epidemic, China's real economy encountered a great impact. While increasing the credit supply, commercial banks actively give profits to the real economy by reducing the loan interest rate, reducing fees and delaying the repayment of principal and interest, which has promoted the obvious decline in corporate financing.
"The year-on-year decline in net profit is not the deterioration of commercial banks' own operating capabilities, but the result of a large number of profits made by commercial banks to entities." He said, "At the same time, faced with the pressure of asset quality rebound, commercial banks increased their loan loss reserves, which increased by 500.3 billion yuan compared with the end of last year (including 294.3 billion yuan in the first quarter and 206 billion yuan in the second quarter), which also affected their profit performance to some extent."
Here, do you still remember the essence of bank profit10.5 trillion?
A month ago, at the press conference of financial statistics in the first half of 2020, Guo Kai, deputy director of the monetary policy department of the central bank, interpreted "the profit of financial institutions10.5 trillion"-indicating that the financial system will mainly make profits to the real economy through three aspects:
The first is the downward trend of interest rates. Including the downward trend of loan interest rate, the downward trend of bond interest rate, refinancing and the issuance of preferential interest rate loans supported by rediscount policy, all of which, together, finally realized a profit of about 930 billion yuan by guiding the downward trend of interest rate.
Second, the two new monetary policy tools, together with the previous deferred repayment and interest payment policy tools, will make a profit of about 230 billion.
Third, banks reduced their fees by 320 billion yuan, including those that had been reduced in the previous period and continued to be reduced throughout the year, especially the Notice on Further Standardizing Credit Financing Fees and Reducing Comprehensive Financing Costs of Enterprises issued in June 1.
In short, these three pieces add up to 1.5 trillion.
On August 10, Yi Gang, the governor of the central bank, said in an interview with the media that the sudden COVID-19 epidemic has brought unprecedented impact to China's economy and the global economy since this year. The central bank decisively increased the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy and innovated monetary policy tools, which strongly supported the steady growth of enterprises and guaranteed employment. He said that the main measures can be summarized as 18, that is, "expanding the total volume, ensuring supply, promoting growth, lowering interest rates, adjusting the structure, and ensuring the main body."
Yi Gang believes that the guidance of monetary policy makes the overall interest rate of the market go down, which significantly reduces the financing cost of enterprises. The loan interest rates of inclusive finance, small and micro enterprises, private enterprises and manufacturing industries all fell to record lows. In particular, the loan interest rate in inclusive finance is currently around 5%, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than last year.
"The downward interest rate has strongly supported the real economy, the loan structure has been significantly optimized, and the number of market entities supported by inclusive small and micro loans has increased significantly. At the end of June, there were nearly 30 million market entities with credit and the loan balance was more than 23 million, mainly small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. " Yi Gang said.
In addition, the net interest margin of banks is also narrowing slightly. Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that the net profit decreased by 9.4% year-on-year, of which the bank's net interest margin decreased from 2. 10% to 2.09%, down by 1 BP, and the net interest margin narrowed, including the decline in profits ... On the one hand, the bank's LPR interest rate decreased by 30bp； in the first half of this year; The actual loan interest rate has dropped by more than 30 BP, but the reduction of bank debt cost is relatively limited, so the whole net interest margin is in a state of contraction.
However, Wen Bin believes that although the profits decreased year-on-year and the net interest margin narrowed, under the influence of the current epidemic, the profit margin of financial institutions to the real economy has increased, which is conducive to supporting the development of the real economy and giving better play to the role of financial support.
It is undeniable that under the impact of the epidemic, some affected enterprises have credit risks, and defaults are also increasing, with non-performing rates and
In the same period, the balance of loan loss reserve of commercial banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, an increase of 206 billion yuan compared with the end of last quarter; The provision coverage ratio was 182.4%, which was 0.80 percentage point lower than that at the end of last quarter. The loan provision ratio was 3.54%, up 0.04 percentage point from the end of last quarter.
"This also shows that the asset quality and risk of the banking industry are generally controllable and the operation is relatively stable. In particular, although the provision coverage ratio decreased compared with the first quarter, it exceeded 180%, far higher than the regulatory red line requirements. Therefore, the risk compensation ability of the entire banking industry is relatively sufficient. " Wen Bin said.
According to the data of China Banking Regulatory Commission, except for city commercial banks, the net interest margin of large commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, private banks, rural commercial banks and foreign banks in the second quarter decreased compared with the first quarter.
However, under the background of the world economic depression and the domestic economy facing many challenges, the bad "Shuang Sheng" of commercial banks should not be underestimated. IMF and World Bank predict that the global economy will shrink by 4.9% and 5.2% respectively in 2020. The World Bank said that the global economy may fall into the worst recession since World War II.
Not good? Not good!
Although China stands out, the central bank said that in the medium and long term, the fundamentals of China's stable, long-term and high-quality economic development have not changed; Even if the current credit assets are in good quality, it is good to plan ahead.
Dong Ximiao said frankly that it was not easy for China Commercial Bank to keep the asset quality basically stable in the first half of the year under the complicated internal and external environment and the sudden increase of pressure, and its risk compensation ability was still sufficient. However, the asset quality of commercial banks will face great pressure in the future, and the asset quality of the banking industry will face severe challenges when the internal and external environment is still facing great uncertainty. In 2020, the loan ratio of non-performing assets of commercial banks may rise, and the non-credit non-performing assets industry may further erupt, so we must not take it lightly.
Specifically, according to the data of China Banking Regulatory Commission, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks in the second quarter was 2,736.4 billion, an increase of 654.38+026.5438+02.43 billion compared with the first quarter. Among them, subprime loans in the second quarter were 654.38+029.16.8 billion compared with the first quarter. Suspicious loans were 654.38+00653 billion, a slight increase of 654.38+00638 billion compared with the first quarter; The loss of loans was 379.3 billion yuan, an increase of 22 1.4 billion yuan compared with 4.0/0.4 billion yuan in the first quarter. The NPL ratio was 65,438+0.94%, which was 3 BP higher than that of 65,438+0.965,438+0% in the first quarter.
Therefore, "on the one hand, commercial banks should take various measures to speed up the disposal of existing non-performing assets;" On the other hand, we must adhere to standards and strictly control the generation of new non-performing assets. Dong Ximiao said that the regulatory authorities should continue to take targeted measures to support commercial banks, especially small and medium-sized banks, to dispose of non-performing assets in a multi-channel and efficient manner. In the process of serving the real economy and benefiting the real enterprises, governments at all levels should adhere to the principles of marketization and rule of law, maintain a good financial ecological environment and protect the legitimate rights and interests of commercial banks.
On July 20th, at the mid-2020 symposium held by China Banking Regulatory Commission, China pointed out that it is necessary to firmly hold the bottom line that systemic financial risks will not occur. Take precautions to deal with the sharp increase of non-performing assets in the banking industry, classify assets in strict accordance with the principle that substance is more important than form, make real profits, make adequate provision, replenish capital and enhance the ability to resist risks.
On August 3rd, the People's Bank of China held a teleconference on work in the second half of 2020. The meeting pointed out that in the next stage, we should "focus on the long-term, plan ahead, support banks to increase the disposal of non-performing loans and provision, and enhance the sustainability of financial support for the real economy."
In this regard, Yif Wang, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities, told the Economic Observer that the year-on-year growth rate of bank profits dropped sharply. Combined with the work requirements of the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission in the second half of the year, the interim performance of the banking industry presents three characteristics:
First of all, the revenue expectation is relatively stable, and the profit growth rate has dropped significantly. The difference between profit growth rate before provision and net profit growth rate has widened. In the second quarter, the net interest margin of the industry was 2.09%, indicating that the net interest income was stable; The decline in the proportion of non-interest income is not only seasonal factors, but also changes in bond trading and valuation caused by the upward interest rate.
Furthermore, in terms of institutions, the profit growth rate of large banks is-12%, that of joint-stock banks is -8%, and that of city commercial banks is -2%. The profit growth rate of large banks has dropped even faster. Mainly because the financial planning of big banks is relatively more prudent. From the profit growth of branches, it can be seen that the high-quality city commercial banks and rural commercial banks in the "sandwich layer" of listed banks expect the profit growth of interim results to be significantly better than that of listed state-owned banks.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Yif Wang believes that the profit growth of commercial banks may still be restrained by the following factors: the consumption of reserves by the return of problem assets after the "new asset management regulations", the increase of non-credit accumulated assets provisions under I9 standards, and the further confirmation and resolution of stock risks. It is expected that the gap between bank income and profit growth will further widen in the future. However, it should also be noted that for high-quality banks, future performance will not deteriorate excessively. Especially at the current stage, the revenue growth of the banking industry is still stable, and high-quality banks will have a good medium and long-term buying point because of performance regulation.
In fact, "the future risk lies not in performance supervision, but more in the uncertainty of financial sanctions and the uncertainty of economic recovery intensity under the intensification of Sino-US friction." Yif Wang said.
Wen Bin believes that in the second half of the year, monetary policy will mainly serve small and micro enterprises and precision drip irrigation. While maintaining a reasonable growth of credit, banks will optimize the credit structure, focus on supporting small and micro enterprises and manufacturing industries, and further serve the real economy. At the same time, compared with the previous period, monetary policy will have some marginal changes and adjustments.
However, "due to the lag effect of risks, the NPL ratio and NPL balance may further increase in the second half of the year, but banks will increase counter-cyclical credit supply, which will help enterprises maintain normal operations. It is expected that the economy will resume growth in the second half of the year ... Therefore, the quality of bank assets will remain stable overall. " Wen Bin said.