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gt; gt ; Core point of view

In December, RMB loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 117 billion yuan year-on-year. The increase in social financing scale was 1.72 trillion yuan, 482.1 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and significantly lower than expected. , credit growth remained unchanged at 12.8, and social financing growth fell 0.3 percentage points to 13.3. The solid credit data is mainly due to the support of corporate medium and long-term loans and bill discounts, while the larger-than-expected decline in social financing is mainly dragged down by non-standard loans. The decline in M1 growth reflects the restricted financing of platform companies and real estate companies. The decline in M2 growth may be affected by insufficient fiscal expenditure. From the perspective of base currency and money multiplier, an excessive excess reserve rate may depress the money multiplier. Looking forward to the future policy direction, it is expected that after the Spring Festival, monetary policy will switch from loose money to stable money, and the tight credit tone will gradually become clear in the first quarter.

gt; gt; Credit increased year-on-year, and corporate long-term loans and bills were the main support

In December, RMB loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 117 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate of 12.8 was unchanged from the previous value. In terms of structure, the year-on-year increase was mainly supported by the corporate sector. In December, corporate credit increased by 595.3 billion, an increase of 170.9 billion year-on-year, of which medium and long-term loans increased by 550 billion, an increase of 152.2 billion year-on-year, maintaining the structural optimization since the second half of the year. Mainly due to the increase in manufacturing credit under MPA assessment; in addition, corporate bill financing increased significantly by 334.1 billion yuan, an increase of 307.9 billion yuan year-on-year, which was related to the 309.7 billion yuan decrease in corporate short-term loans that month. Short-term loans were restricted, which increased the demand for corporate bill discounts. . Residential loans increased by 563.5 billion in December, a decrease of 82.4 billion from the same period last year. Affected by the marginal changes in the epidemic, residents' consumption behavior was periodically disturbed. In 2020, the cumulative increase in credit was 19.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.82 trillion yuan year-on-year. Looking forward to 2021, there will be an inflection point of credit tightening at the beginning of the year. However, credit supply and demand were both strong in January, and the data may still perform relatively strongly. The data in February are more likely to fall back.

gt; gt; Social financing increased less year-on-year, lower than expected mainly due to non-standard drag

The increase in social financing scale in December was 1.72 trillion, 482.1 billion less than the same period last year Yuan, significantly lower than expected. In December, the growth rate of social financing stock dropped 0.3 percentage points from the previous value to 13.3. Structurally, it was mainly dragged down by non-standard projects. In December, non-standard projects decreased by 737.6 billion. Among them, trust loans decreased by 460.1 billion, undiscounted bills decreased by 221.6 billion, and entrusted loans decreased by 55.9 billion. Trust loan supervision was strengthened and the maturity amount was higher. The amount of net financing in December hit a record low; the fall in off-balance sheet bills was mainly affected by the larger volume and discount volume. There were more than 200 billion in net financing of bills in March and June 2020, making the bill due in December The large volume, coupled with the strong discount demand of enterprises, led to the decline of off-balance sheet bills beyond expectations. Net financing of government bonds in December was 715.6 billion, which is still a solid support; net financing of corporate bonds fell back to 44.2 billion, a significant decrease of 218.3 billion year-on-year, and is still under the impact of credit default events.

gt; gt; The growth rates of M1 and M2 both fell below expectations.

At the end of December, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 fell by 1.4 percentage points to 8.6, which was higher than the growth rate of M0 and M2. , reflecting the acceleration of the decline in corporate demand deposits. There are two main reasons: first, the financing of platform companies was restricted due to the credit default incident in November, weak fiscal expenditures and strengthened supervision of trust loans; second, real estate credit in December The combination of increasing prudence and trust supervision has limited the financing of real estate companies.

At the end of December, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell by 0.6 percentage points to 10.1, which was also lower than market expectations. We believe that the main reason is that the intensity of fiscal expenditure may be lower than expected. Data shows that fiscal deposits decreased by 954 billion in December, lower than last year's decline. The second reason is that the basic From the perspective of currency and money multiplier, the central bank injected large-scale liquidity in December. In the absence of large-scale credit injection, it may push up the excess reserve rate and lower the money multiplier.

gt; gt; Short-end liquidity will not be relaxed for a long time, and will shift to stabilizing currency and tightening credit in the first quarter

The main purpose of the central bank's increase in short-end liquidity since November is to cope with Credit bond issuance issues caused by credit default events. However, the long-term continuous release of short-end liquidity will increase the willingness of institutions to increase leverage, making the bond market leverage ratio high, which is contrary to the financial stability goal of stabilizing leverage. Therefore, short-end liquidity is unlikely to be relaxed for a long time. We expect that there are two possibilities for the time when the central bank's liquidity regulation returns to neutrality in the future (that is, DR007 fluctuates around 2.2): first, the central bank believes that the issue of credit bond issuance will gradually be solved; second, the central bank realizes that the credit bond issue cannot be solved by releasing liquidity. Solve it and use other means. In terms of timing, we believe that the probability of a marginal turn after the Spring Festival is relatively high. In 2021, the central bank's monetary policy will shift from the perspective of financial stability to steady and neutral, mainly by tightening credit to stabilize the macro leverage ratio. We maintain our judgment that credit and social financing will increase by 19 and 31 trillion respectively throughout the year.

Risk Warning

Concentrated outbreaks of credit defaults disrupt the pace of monetary policy tightening

Recent Perspective

Introduction to Zheshang Securities Macro Research Team

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The content of the article comes from the report "December Financial Data: Credit Tightening Gradually Starts" published on January 12th