In fact, in recent years, China's economy has continued the growth mode of low inflation and high growth. China's economy has remained above 10% for five consecutive quarters, and the economic growth in the first quarter of this year was as high as 1 1. 1%. It should be said that the economy is already very fast. However, it seems more reasonable for the central bank to postpone raising interest rates after March 2007.
Take CPI, the main indicator to decide whether to raise interest rates, as an example. Although the pressure of rising consumer prices is great, it is still within the controllable range. In the first four months of 2007, the consumer price index rose by 2.8%. From the perspective of the whole year, even if the prices of resources and public services are appropriately adjusted in the second half of the year, CPI can still be controlled within the control target range of 3%. In the medium and long term, due to the high investment rate driven by China's high savings rate, the future expansion of production capacity and supply will be gradually released, so CPI is actually facing downward pressure.
In addition, the supporting conditions for economic growth have improved, and the shortage of coal, electricity and oil transportation has eased. This is mainly because enterprises in China have made use of the global resource market, and initially solved the supply problem of energy and raw materials. The "environmental storm" in China and the discovery of super oil fields indicate that the sustainability of China's economic development will be gradually enhanced in the future.
Since the start of the share-trading reform, China's capital market has gradually stepped out of the four-year downturn, and more and more investors have realized the asset injection and the long-term positive expectations of China's economy. In two years or so, the stock index rose more than four times from the low level, especially some underperforming stocks rose to the sky, forming a local bubble.
However, as far as squeezing bubbles is concerned, monetary policies such as raising interest rates are by no means a panacea-the causes of asset bubbles are complicated, especially in China. In the future, increase the supply of high-quality listed companies and balance the relationship between supply and demand; Strengthen market supervision, improve the transparency of information disclosure and prevent malicious speculation; It seems that it is more important to speed up the pace to remind market risks and strengthen investor education. In a capital market where listed companies are extremely mixed, in a capital market where insider trading is rampant, and in a capital market where finance has been deeply suppressed, these measures are far more important to the healthy development of China stock market than a single monetary policy.