The meeting pointed out that the next step is to follow the requirements of the government work report. First, grasp the key of reasonable profit, protect market players and stabilize the basic economic disk. Further, through a series of policies, such as guiding the downward trend of loan interest rate and bond interest rate, granting loans with preferential interest rate, delaying the repayment of principal and interest of loans for small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting the issuance of unsecured credit loans for small and micro enterprises, and reducing bank charges, the financial system will be promoted to make reasonable profits to various enterprises throughout the year/kloc-0.5 trillion yuan. Second, the comprehensive use of RRR reduction, refinancing and other tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity, increase efforts to solve the financing problem, and ease the financial pressure on enterprises. The scale of new RMB loans and social financing in the whole year exceeded that of the previous year. The third is to follow the market rules and improve the policy tools and related mechanisms of direct investment enterprises. In accordance with the requirements of controllable ownership, we will ensure that the newly-increased financial funds mainly flow to the manufacturing industry, general service industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, give full play to the role of emergency rescue and "giving timely assistance", prevent funds from wandering and "idling" and guard against financial risks. The fourth is to enhance the ability and motivation of financial services for SMEs. Reasonably replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks. Urge banks to improve the internal assessment and incentive mechanism, and enhance the weight of inclusive finance in the assessment. Increase the write-off of non-performing loans. It is strictly forbidden to attach unreasonable conditions when issuing loans. Effectively reduce the actual financing cost of market participants and further reduce the difficulty of loans.
The reporter learned that guiding the downward trend of loans means that LPR will further decline. Reducing LPR will be achieved by reducing the cost of the bank's debt side, and its measures include lowering MLF interest rate and lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate.
Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, said that the possibility of the central bank significantly reducing the policy interest rate in the future is declining. LPR is equal to the policy interest rate plus the spread, which includes profit, bank charges and other factors. The meeting put forward "grasping the key to reasonable profit", which means that reducing the spread is the bulk of financial institutions, and lowering the policy interest rate is not the main option.
This time, the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) clearly stated: "Comprehensive use of RRR reduction, refinancing and other tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity." Under the background of large-scale issuance of special national debt and other national debt, the market expects that the probability of RRR reduction will increase in the short term.
"In the first five months of this year, the scale of credit and social financing increased significantly, indicating that the financing problem is easing. This policy focuses on expensive financing. With the implementation of the policy, the general loan interest rate of enterprises will further decline in the coming months. " Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said.
Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said in an interview in late May that the LPR reform effectively promoted the reduction of the real interest rate of loans. In April, the average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.8 1%, which was 0.5 1 percentage point lower than that before LPR reform in July, and it is expected to continue to decline in May.
Reasonable profit enterprise
Wind data shows that in the first quarter of 2020, the total profits of industrial enterprises in China dropped by 36.7% year-on-year, but the net profit of commercial banks in the first quarter was 60,065,438+billion yuan, up by 5.0% year-on-year, which triggered the market's attention to the high profits of banks.
The article "An objective view of the profit growth of the banking industry in the first quarter" published by the research group of the People's Bank of China in May holds that the profit growth of the banking industry in the first quarter mainly comes from the expansion of bank assets and the decline in the ratio of management cost to income. For example, in the first quarter of this year, the cost-income ratio of commercial banks was 25.69%, which was 1 percentage point lower than that of the same period last year and about 2 percentage points lower than the average level of the same period since 20 1 1.
The research group also pointed out that there is room for banks to benefit from the real economy when the real economy is facing great difficulties and the absolute amount of bank profits is large. Banks should give full play to the advantages of more profits, increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, reduce the financing costs of enterprises, and smooth the virtuous circle of economy and finance.
The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that in June 5438+0-May this year, the RRR cut, refinancing and rediscounting were adopted to guide the market interest rate down, and RMB loans increased year-on-year, reducing the comprehensive financing cost of enterprises. In the next step, according to the requirements of the government work report, we should seize the key of reasonable profit-making, protect the market players and stabilize the basic economic disk.
Specifically, it is necessary to further promote the financial system to make a reasonable profit of/kloc-0.5 trillion yuan to various enterprises throughout the year through a series of policies, such as guiding the downward trend of loan interest rates and bond interest rates, granting loans with preferential interest rates, delaying the repayment of debts by small and medium-sized enterprises, supporting the issuance of unsecured credit loans for small and micro enterprises, and reducing bank charges.
"This is essentially a cost-sharing mechanism to cope with the impact of the epidemic, that is, financial institutions give profits to enterprises, tide over difficulties with enterprises, and stabilize the basic economy. Financial institutions can not only reduce future bad debt losses, but also win opportunities for later profits, thus achieving the goal of * * * * * * * * *. " Wu Chaoming said.
In the aforementioned "package" measures, the leading loan interest rate ranks first. From 2065438 to August 2009, the central bank promoted the market-oriented reform of loan interest rates. After the reform, LPR refers to MLF and the loan interest rate anchors LPR. In other words, in order to guide the downward trend of loan interest rate, LPR needs to be lowered with high probability.
According to the data of the central bank, on May 20th, the LPR of 1 year was 3.85%, and the LPR of over five years was 4.65%, which decreased by 30BP and 15BP respectively compared with the end of last year. The MLF interest rate operated on June 15 is the same as that of the previous period, but the LPR quotation may be lowered on June 20th under the requirement of "reasonable profit-making" at this the State Council executive meeting.
"Although the MLF interest rate remains unchanged in June, commercial banks may lower their quotation points, and the probability of a slight downward trend in LPR quotation on June 20 is increasing." Wang Qing said.
In the medium and long term, in order to guide the downward trend of LPR and improve the commercial sustainability of low-interest loans issued by banks, in addition to lowering the MLF interest rate, reducing RRR, controlling deposit competition and compressing the scale of structured deposits are also important measures to reduce the debt cost of banks. In addition, it is possible to lower the benchmark deposit interest rate.
Ming Ming, chief fixed income analyst of CITIC Securities, said that the hedging policy of the financial system is more reflected in lowering the loan interest rate and increasing the loan amount led by commercial banks, which ultimately makes the comprehensive loan cost of enterprises go down. The reason for limiting the downward trend of LPR and loan interest rate lies in the rigidity of bank debt cost, so the benchmark deposit interest rate is one of the ways to affect the downward trend of loan interest rate.
The probability of RRR reduction increases.
The executive meeting of the State Council also pointed out that the comprehensive use of RRR reduction and refinancing tools should keep the market liquidity reasonable and sufficient, intensify efforts to solve the financing problem and ease the financial pressure of enterprises. This is the second time that the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) mentioned reducing RRR. Some market participants believe that in most cases, RRR reduction measures will be introduced within two weeks after the National People's Congress mentions RRR reduction. In addition, the large-scale issuance of national debt such as anti-epidemic special national debt also needs to provide liquidity support by reducing RRR.
For example, the the State Council executive meeting held on Tuesday, March 10 this year requested that the inclusive finance and the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio should be introduced as soon as possible, and the RRR reduction of joint-stock banks should be intensified to encourage commercial banks to increase loan support for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. Last Friday, March 13, the central bank announced the relevant RRR reduction measures.
"In the past year or two, the RRR cut was first voiced by the National People's Congress and then implemented within two weeks. This is the so-called' two-week' law. It is estimated that there will not be much change this time. " Zhang Jiqiang, chief analyst of Huatai Solid Revenue, said.
According to the data of the central bank, at the end of May 2020, the average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was 9.4%, which was 5.5 percentage points lower than that at the beginning of 20 18. Among them, the deposit reserve ratio of large banks and medium-sized banks is 1 1% and 9% respectively. The deposit reserve ratio of more than 4,000 small and medium-sized banks has dropped to 6%, which is at a low level.
Xu, president of Zhengzhou Central Sub-branch of the Central Bank, told reporters that there is room for lowering the deposit reserve ratio from the current situation in China. Internationally, China's deposit reserve ratio is at a medium level. From the structural point of view, the difference of deposit reserve ratio between different financial institutions is still relatively large, and the deposit reserve ratio of large state-owned banks can be further reduced.
The the State Council executive meeting also proposed two measures: to improve the policy tools and related mechanisms for direct investment of funds into enterprises, and to replenish the capital of small and medium-sized banks reasonably. Among them, the former refers to two tools: Pratt & Whitney Small and Micro Enterprise Loan Extension Support Tool and Pratt & Whitney Small and Micro enterprise credit loans Support Plan. The meeting called for ensuring that new financial funds mainly flow to the manufacturing industry, general service industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to prevent capital deviation and "idling" and to guard against financial risks.
In terms of replenishing capital, the Office of the Finance Committee issued the Work Plan for Deepening Reform and Replenishing Capital for Small and Medium-sized Banks on May 27th to further promote the deepening reform of small and medium-sized banks and accelerate their capital replenishment. The reporter learned that the regulatory authorities plan to allocate 200 billion yuan from this year's special debt quota to inject capital into small and medium-sized banks, but the specific plan has not yet been determined.
The the State Council executive meeting also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, all relevant departments and units have introduced a series of fee reduction measures, such as waiving the national toll road tolls, reducing the electricity prices of industrial and commercial enterprises, reducing the telecommunications fees, and reducing the fees charged by relevant government funds, which have played a positive role in helping enterprises out of difficulties. The next step is to keep up with market players and ensure employment and people's livelihood. First, the established fee reduction measures should be implemented and put in place. By extending the industrial and commercial electricity price reduction by 5%, exempting the airline's civil aviation development fund and the port construction fee for import and export goods, halving the collection policy of the compensation fund for oil pollution damage from ships until the end of the year, reducing the average tariff of broadband and private lines by 15%, and adding the fee reduction measures in the first half of the year, * * * reduced the burden on enterprises by more than 3 10 billion yuan. The second is to resolutely stop non-compliant charges. It is strictly forbidden to collect "excessive taxes and fees" in the name of clearing fees and repaying loans, illegally collect taxes and fees, and increase the unreasonable burden of market players. The charging fund projects that have been cancelled, suspended, exempted and reduced in the collection standard should be resolutely implemented in enterprises. The third is to deepen the reform of "decentralization, strengthening supervision and improving services" and create a market-oriented and rule-based international business environment. On the basis of carrying out special treatment of fees in key areas such as import and export links, enterprise financing, public utilities, logistics, administrative examination and approval related intermediary services, we will improve the system and mechanism and eradicate the soil of arbitrary charges from the system.