This will mean that the government may prescribe the fiercest medicine in history for the "real estate fever". A new round of macro-control has come.
On May 8, the central bank announced that it would raise the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans by 0. 18 percentage points. On April 28th, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions by 0.27 percentage points.
It is reported that the 50% mortgage loan policy planned by the central bank will be introduced when necessary. At present, the major commercial banks have not received the specific timetable for implementing this policy. However, while paying close attention to the trend of real estate prices in major cities in China, it has become the main task of major commercial banks to contact the customers of major real estate developers secretly and urgently, recover the loans that will be receivable in advance, and stop issuing any development loans to developers.
House price rebound
House price is the fuse of a new round of macro-control.
"I want to buy a house in Kyoto Hangcheng, but since April 29th, house prices have gone up, with an average increase of 400 yuan. The apartment I want to buy has gone up 160 yuan. It's no use giving an acquaintance a discount. Is it really sold like this? I don't believe it! " On May 9, Mr. Wang, who works in a newspaper, admitted to reporters that he had begun to give up the idea of buying a house because of the housing price problem. "The housing prices in Beijing are too high to afford."
According to the reporter's understanding, the price reduction rate of Kyoto Hangcheng is not the fastest in Beijing Baiziwan area. "The most obvious example is the coastal city of Siro. Last May, the so-called strictest macro-control just started, and this project also opened at the same time. At that time, the average price was only 6800 yuan. At present, the price has reached 8200 yuan, a year 1000 yuan, equivalent to a year in vain. An insider calculated such an account for the reporter.
However, in Beijing, buildings with soaring housing prices like Kyoto Hangcheng and the coastal Sailuo City abound.
"It used to be a few hundred dollars, but now we have raised thousands of dollars. In fact, this has become a common phenomenon. At present, the rise in housing prices is very abnormal. " Even Pan Shiyi, chairman of SOHO China Co., Ltd., admitted that house prices have risen too fast.
Statistics show that in the first four months, Beijing's housing prices are rising rapidly at the rate of 17%, and the upward trend is not decreasing.
"Now there is a strange phenomenon. The more the property goes up, the better it sells. The less it rises, the more it is left out. " This is Mr. Wang's deepest feeling during May Day. "The factor of being forced to buy a house is obvious."
Obviously, the housing prices in Beijing are "outrageous". However, the most worrying thing is that high housing prices have spread.
"Last year's macro-control still made developers uncomfortable for some time. A developer told me that if the regulatory effect cannot be reduced within three months, he will go bankrupt. " At the end of April, when our reporter interviewed in Chengdu, the relevant person from the housing management department of suburban counties in Chengdu told the reporter that the macro-control passed quickly, and the developer came back to life. Now his life is more moist than expected. "Now his house is the highest in the local area, with an average price of nearly 4,000 yuan, and the local house price is around 2,000 yuan."
Relevant persons in the housing management department lamented that from last year to this year, the housing prices in the whole city of Chengdu, including this suburban county, rose extremely rapidly.
In addition, statistics recently released by government departments in Guangzhou, Qingdao, Shenzhen and other places show that house prices in these places have soared again recently, and the price of commercial housing in some places has even increased by nearly 20%. "The average housing price in Shenzhen is nearly 1 10,000 yuan. “
"Yes, house prices have risen particularly fast. In fact, what we may see is an increase of 65,438+00% and 65,438+05%. In fact, the real increase may be even greater than this figure. " Pan Shiyi said.
High vacancy rate and housing price paradox
"The continued high housing prices have led to an imbalance between supply and demand in the market." Yin Zhongli, Ph.D., Financial Research Office of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the rapid rise in housing prices means that vacancy will also increase, and the real estate bubble will get bigger and bigger.
"From the perspective of high housing prices and high vacancy rate, real estate does have some bubble components more or less." Yan, a professor in the Department of Land Management of China Renmin University, has similar views to his.
In fact, it can be seen from the data recently released by the national authoritative department that the high vacancy rate caused by high housing prices has emerged.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of March, the vacant area of commercial housing nationwide was123 million square meters, up 23.8% year-on-year. Among them, vacant commercial housing was 69.83 million square meters, up by 19.7% year-on-year. According to the latest statistics of Beijing Real Estate Trading Information Network, as of April 30 this year, there were a total of 15 12 sets of auction houses in Beijing, of which unsold houses totaled 109 1390 square meters. There are 855 existing home sales projects that have obtained the property ownership certificate, including 5 unsigned houses178/kloc-0, with an area of 289 1400 square meters.
The reporter's experience of looking at the building in Huayang Town, a suburb of Chengdu, is also particularly profound. You can often see a huge real estate, which nobody cares about. "Our house prices here are generally above 3,000, and the slightly higher-end real estate is close to 6,000. There are villa projects with a price of over 10,000 yuan. The sales situation is ok, but the occupancy rate is not high, and the vacancy rate of some properties is as high as 80%. " A local developer told reporters that apart from the demand for early house purchase brought by the imminent relocation of Chengdu government to the south and the waiting of retirees in remote areas such as Xinjiang and Tibet, it is not excluded that some vacancy rates are caused by investment and speculation.
However, what kind of power is distorting the real estate market?
"In April, I had a meeting in Xiamen and learned that in that place in Xiamen, the floor price of a piece of land had already reached 7,000 yuan." 2 1 Lu Hang, vice chairman of Century Real Estate China District, said in an interview with this reporter that the rise in land prices has affected the rise in house prices to some extent.
In Beijing, Sunco and China Resources bought land at sky-high prices. As a result, their real estate prices are much higher than the average real estate prices in the same area. On April 8th, the starting price of110.50 billion yuan in the central area of Beijing Haidian Hot Spring Town once again made the industry experience the intense feeling of "taking land at a sky-high price", and the following hidden worries also arose: How high profit should developers have at such a land price?
"Because the land price cost of this plot has reached 4,863 yuan/square meter, its selling price must reach at least 1 10,000 yuan/square meter to get a certain profit." Li Wenjie, general manager of Zhongyuan Real Estate North China, said.
According to the reporter's understanding, the current sales price of residential products in the same lot is between 5,200 yuan/square meter and 6,500 yuan/square meter, and the gap is clear at a glance.
"The big environment is low interest rates. Everyone is used to this interest rate level. The interest rate in the American market is 7%-8%. The interest rate in China has always been a low interest rate market. This makes people have a strong investment impulse. The mortgage is more than 5 o'clock, and the interest rate in the bank is almost equal to zero. " Lu Hang analyzed the reasons behind high housing prices from a financial perspective. "There is a single investment channel, except for stocks, which is real estate. It is a fact that stocks are depressed. Real estate is more often an option for investors. "
"For example, last year's macro-control, to stabilize housing prices, lower prices, but our control measures, one is to tighten credit, and the other is to reduce land supply. Tightening credit means reducing lending; Reducing land supply will reduce land supply. Under the condition of constant demand, the decrease of supply will inevitably lead to the increase of price. Bank credit is reduced, land supply is reduced, houses on the market are also reduced, and house prices will inevitably fall. " On the morning of April 25th, Yang Shen, former president of China Real Estate Association, also pointed out the crux of high housing prices in land and finance at the 2006 China International Real Estate Seminar and the 2006 Blue Book of Real Estate.
A prelude to supervision
The market game between developers and consumers is intensifying.
"Such a rapid rise is indeed a particularly dangerous signal. We should reflect on whether the previous policies are effective and how to regulate the real estate market in the next step to make it develop steadily. " Pan Shiyi said.
"Recently, a series of actions by major functional departments are actually just a signal and a prelude to a new round of macro-control. In my opinion, the real large-scale macro-control has not yet begun. " On May 9, Fang Chao, general manager of Guohua Real Estate, the developer of Beijing Huamao Center, predicted to reporters: "The new round of macro-control measures will mainly be interest rates and taxes."
"The goal of our control measures cannot proceed from subjective will. Administrative means and market value complement each other, and so does the relationship between tangible hand and intangible hand. It does not mean that modern macro-control is to suppress the invisible hand with the tangible hand, so it is easy to use administrative means. In the end, house prices cannot fall, and the expected goals of regulation are difficult to achieve or have little effect. " Yang Shen pointed out.
Pan Shiyi said: "At present, there are three ways to stabilize housing prices: the first is the land sector, and the annual supply of land can keep a balance with the demand for housing. Only the balance of supply and demand can stabilize the market, which is a harmonious market; The second aspect is the People's Bank of China. The original incentive policy of the People's Bank of China. For example, the threshold should be raised above the mortgage ratio, the number of years and the housing interest rate. The third sector is taxation. People's Republic of China (PRC) State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China proposed to increase the tax on holding real estate two years ago. "
According to the news obtained by the reporter, increasing the down payment ratio may indeed become the last "killer" of macro-control. However, insiders pointed out that the impact of the 50% mortgage policy may cause "catastrophe" in the entire real estate market.
It is reported that the 50% mortgage loan policy planned by the central bank will be introduced when necessary. At present, the major commercial banks have not received the specific timetable for implementing this policy. However, while paying close attention to the trend of real estate prices in major cities in China, it has become the main task of major commercial banks to contact the customers of major real estate developers secretly and urgently, recover the loans that will be receivable in advance, and stop issuing any development loans to developers. (Reporter Yang li Ping reports from Beijing)