Review of energy situation in the first half of 2004
Since the second half of 2002, the relationship between energy supply and demand in China has undergone major changes, and the situation of energy supply exceeding demand has reappeared. According to statistics, in 2003, there were 2 1 provinces and cities in China with power cuts. In the first quarter of this year, the number of provinces and cities with power cuts increased to 23, and it is expected that the phenomenon of power cuts will be more serious this summer. Limited by transportation capacity, the shortage of coal supply in Shaanxi, Shanxi and other major coal-producing provinces has also aggravated the contradiction between energy supply and demand; The shortage of coal makes the southeast coastal areas that lack coal and oil have to rely on diesel generators to generate electricity, which also makes the oil supply in some places tight. The above chain reaction has brought great impact to the stable and sustained growth of China's economy.
At present, the shortage of energy supply and demand in China is mainly manifested in electricity. In 2003, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 189 1 100 million kwh, an increase of 15.8% over the previous year. In the first half of 2004, China's electricity demand continued to grow at a high speed. From June to April, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 650 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 16. 1%, which further aggravated the power shortage. With the approach of the peak of electricity consumption in summer, the national electricity load continues to climb. It is estimated that the annual electricity demand will be 209 1 100 million kwh, an increase of about 1 1% over the previous year. In the same period, the power supply and production capacity will be relatively insufficient. It is estimated that there will be a gap of more than 20 million kilowatts in the whole year, and the situation of power supply and demand in China will be more severe than that in 2003.
There are many reasons for the shortage of energy supply and demand in China. On the one hand, the industries with high energy consumption, such as steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum, which have driven China's economic growth in recent two or three years, have developed too fast, and the electricity consumption of these industries accounts for about 30% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, while the growth rate of industrial investment that meets the requirements of new industrialization is not fast or insufficient; The upgrading of residents' consumption structure has increased the energy consumption of "housing" and "transportation". For example, in 2003, the power load in Beijing was 8.33 million kilowatts, while the total load of air conditioners in summer was about 3-4 million kilowatts, and the electricity consumption of air conditioners accounted for 7- 10% of the city's total electricity consumption. On the other hand, it is also related to the slowdown of energy construction in previous years. For example, since 2000, the power industry in China has started to develop at a high speed. In 2003, the national installed power generation capacity reached 384.5 million kilowatts, an increase of 20.4% over 2000, but the power demand increased by 40.4% in the same period.
In the first half of the year, the government in the field of energy consumption
New measures taken and their effects
(1) initiative
In order to ensure the long-term stable and rapid development of the national economy, since the second half of 2003, the China Municipal Government has carried out macro-control in a timely manner, and the policies, measures and activities related to the field of energy consumption mainly include:
1. Since last year, the China Municipal Government has further strengthened the land examination and approval procedures and bank loan conditions, and made full use of land policies and financial policies. For example, in April, the State Council issued a notice to appropriately increase the capital ratio of fixed assets investment projects such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement and real estate development. Iron and steel increased from 25% and above to 40% and above; Cement, electrolytic aluminum and real estate development (excluding affordable housing projects) have all increased from 20% and above to 35% and above. Raising the market access threshold and restraining blind investment and low-level redundant construction in some high-energy-consuming industries are aimed at reducing unreasonable energy demand. In May 2004, nine ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued a document, demanding that all localities suspend the examination and approval of new coke production projects to curb the disorderly expansion of the coke industry.
2. In June 65438+1 October 65438+February, 2003, the government of China issued the Notice of the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China on Adjusting the Export Tax Refund Rate, which stipulated that the tax rebate rate for general export products would be reduced and the country would be reduced or cancelled from June 65438+1October/0/June 2004. Following the issuance of the notice, on May 24th, 2004, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued an urgent notice, announcing that from now on, all exported coke, semi-coke and coking coal would stop the VAT export tax rebate.
3. In view of the shortage of energy (electricity) supply, on the one hand, our government has issued a policy to speed up the construction of coal, electricity and oil transportation, on the other hand, it is also speeding up the formulation and implementation of the construction plan of coal, electricity and oil transportation to ensure the continuity of energy supply. At the same time, energy saving and energy efficiency improvement are put on the important agenda. In April this year, the State Council issued the "Notice on Developing Resource Conservation Activities", which designated 2004-2006 as the "Year of Resource Conservation" and clearly put forward the specific targets of energy conservation and electricity saving in the next three years.
4. In view of the shortage of energy supply in China, which is mainly manifested in the shortage of electricity supply, and considering the low efficiency and great waste of electricity in China, the relevant state departments have taken "advocating and implementing electricity conservation, striving to alleviate the power bottleneck and supporting the steady and rapid development of the national economy" as the focus of energy conservation work this year. At the end of May, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC) jointly issued "Guiding Opinions on Strengthening DSM" before the arrival of the summer peak, requiring local organizations to formulate relevant regulations, policies, standards and plans for DSM, and actively raise funds to promote DSM.
5. In mid-June this year, with the approval of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an electricity price adjustment plan to increase the national sales electricity price by an average of 2.2 cents/kWh, so as to play the role of price leverage to adjust the balance between power supply and demand. Six high energy-consuming industries, such as electrolytic aluminum, ferroalloy, calcium carbide, caustic soda, cement and steel, were divided into elimination, restriction, permission and encouragement enterprises according to the requirements of national industrial policy, and differential electricity prices were tried out. In order to alleviate the contradiction between seasonal and periodic power shortage, nine provinces (cities) such as Shanghai, Jiangsu and Beijing have further improved the time-of-use tariff method.
6. The relevant state departments have advanced the annual "National Energy Saving Week" from 165438+ last month to June, and put forward the targeted publicity theme of "saving electricity and easing the bottleneck" in order to widely publicize and vigorously advocate saving electricity when the air conditioning load increases sharply in summer. Beijing and other places put forward the initiative of "increasing the air conditioning temperature of public buildings 1℃"; Many cities, including Beijing, have decided to take control measures, such as taking turns to have a holiday every week, taking a holiday at high temperature, avoiding the peak of electricity consumption, controlling the load, and turning off the air conditioner in turn to cope with the upcoming peak of electricity consumption.
(II) Implementation effect
Judging from the implementation effect, some policies and measures have achieved the expected effect, and some policies have not been introduced for a long time, and the effect is still not obvious. It is expected that it will gradually become clear in the second half of this year, specifically:
1. The new export tax rebate policy has achieved remarkable results. From June to 10, 2004, China's total export amounted to US$ 35.72 billion, an increase of 19.8% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 15 percentage points compared with the growth rate of 34.6% last year. Among them, the total export value of resource-based and energy-intensive products such as coke and semi-coke restricted by the state decreased by 52.3% year-on-year; Coal exports fell by 28.6%; Refined oil decreased by 48%; The billet decreased by 49.5%; The total export value of mechanical and electrical products encouraged by the state increased by 27.9% year-on-year, and high-tech products increased by 42.8% year-on-year.
2. The electricity price adjustment scheme and its synergy with other high-energy-consuming industries' regulatory policies and measures are expected to effectively curb the blind development of high-energy-consuming industries such as steel and the growth of electricity demand. In 2004, the growth of electricity consumption in steel and non-ferrous metals industries may decrease by about 65,438+04% and 65,438+00% respectively.
3. Preliminary analysis shows that the comprehensive effect of various DSM support policies and measures will reduce the power demand by about100000 KW.
4. In the "National Energy Conservation Publicity Week" activities, people's interest in "energy saving tips" and other energy-saving popular science materials was obviously felt.
This summer, the home appliance market obviously takes "energy saving" as the main marketing strategy of manufacturers, especially the high-power consumption home appliances such as air conditioners and refrigerators.
Problems and suggestions
(a) problems
Judging from the current terminal energy consumption, there are some factors that are not conducive to future energy saving and energy efficiency improvement, such as:
1. In some provinces and cities, the on-grid electricity price is high, and the reliability of power supply in the power grid decreases, which obviously improves the enthusiasm of enterprises to build their own power plants. The performance of enterprises in dealing with the shortage of energy supply is that the motivation to increase their energy supply capacity is greater than the motivation to take energy-saving measures.
2. Many small thermal power projects have been built in some places in the name of cogeneration. Although these projects have temporarily alleviated the power shortage, small thermal power plants are obviously weaker than large thermal power plants in terms of energy efficiency and environmental protection measures, which has laid a hidden danger for future sustainable development and environmental control. The rapid development of small thermal power is related to the current administrative examination and approval system to some extent. Power projects above 300,000 kilowatts need to be reported to relevant departments for approval. Although large-scale power plants are "high efficiency and little pollution", they often feel that they are "too far from hydrolysis to be near thirst" when the power supply is tight. Although small thermal power works quickly, it is inefficient and polluting. How to solve the contradiction between the short-term interests of energy shortage and the long-term interests of environmental protection and sustainable development is a problem that the medium and long-term energy development strategy must face.
3. Although at the end of 2003, China government proposed to strengthen macro-control, avoid blindly pursuing high-speed GDP growth, and curb the rapid growth of energy-intensive products, at the beginning of this year, many small steel mills, small cement plants, small coking plants and small electrolytic aluminum plants were launched in some places under the impetus of the market. Behind the development of small-scale and high-energy-consuming production enterprises are serious problems of low efficiency and high pollution. The extensive production mode with high consumption and high pollution has returned.
4. Due to the shortage of power supply, various localities have adopted the energy demand side management (DSM) mode, implemented differential electricity prices by using price levers, shifted peaks to avoid peaks, guided science of electricity, adjusted load curves, and reduced the occurrence of power cuts and power cuts. Power shortage has promoted the development of energy demand side management mechanism to some extent. However, on the whole, the economic incentive policy of DSM is still weak, especially the lack of long-term incentive mechanism, which makes it uncertain whether DSM can be effectively implemented for a long time.
(2) Suggestions
1. Establish an early warning system for energy supply and demand, and set the goal of social sustainable energy demand.
Although the emergence of a new round of consumption hotspots such as housing and automobiles has objectively stimulated the development of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other related industries, blind pursuit of GDP growth is another reason for the abnormal growth of these high-energy-consuming industries. Therefore, establishing an early warning system of energy supply and demand, establishing a target management system of energy demand for sustainable development of the whole society, exploring an energy consumption model suitable for sustainable development, rationally guiding and managing energy demand, and rationally controlling the total energy consumption are concrete manifestations of implementing a comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable Scientific Outlook on Development.
2. Accelerate the structural reform of the energy industry and establish an energy development system with the best economic, social and environmental benefits for the whole society.
Monopoly in the energy industry will lead to unreasonable competition and unreasonable pricing, which will lead to incomplete market signals, guide unreasonable investment behavior, and ultimately lead to the lack of social benefits and environmental damage. If we don't speed up the reform of the energy industry system, break the monopoly, and build an open, competitive and orderly energy market system under the supervision of the government, it will provide development space for energy construction projects with low efficiency and high pollution, and bring adverse consequences to social benefits and environmental protection.
3. Establish an administrative operation mechanism in which government macro-control and enterprise development are coordinated.
One of the deep-seated reasons for the "power shortage" is that there are problems in the current power administrative examination and approval system, which leads to unreasonable power investment structure, and a large number of "small thermal power plants" with small scale, low efficiency and great pollution have been launched one after another. At present, the reform of the investment and financing system is being promoted, the administrative examination and approval procedures are reduced, and the role of the market in allocating resources is brought into play. However, under the circumstances that the economic system reform is not in place and the environmental and social costs cannot be internalized, it is a big problem that we must solve to explore new mechanisms to ensure that the newly put into production projects meet the standards of energy conservation and environmental protection. In the long run, it is necessary to establish an energy efficiency and environmental protection publicity system, take the energy-saving review of the project as a necessary prerequisite for the project to start construction, and handle the harmonious relationship between government macro-control and enterprise development just like environmental review.
4. Establish an energy-saving mechanism for the sustainable operation of special funds for energy conservation.
From the experience of foreign countries, it is a successful way and trend to establish special funds to support the long-term effective implementation of energy-saving mechanisms such as energy demand side management. In view of this, it is suggested that the relevant departments conduct special research on this, establish special funds for energy conservation as soon as possible, and ensure the effective operation of the energy-saving mechanism.
5. Economic measures must be taken to restrict the export of products with high energy consumption and high pollution.
Recently, the extraordinary development of some industries with high energy consumption cannot be directly related to the encouragement of the corresponding export tax rebate policy. The measures taken at the end of last year and the beginning of this year to reduce and cancel the export tax rebate rate of resource products have played a certain role in reducing exports, ensuring domestic supply, maintaining price stability, curbing excessive investment and promoting industrial restructuring. In the long run, China's economic development has surpassed the stage of selling resources for foreign exchange. Try to reduce the export of products with serious pollution, serious consumption of resources and energy and low added value, cancel export encouragement measures including export tax rebate, consider raising export tax when necessary, restrict the export of products with high energy consumption and high pollution, rationally adjust industrial structure and reduce unreasonable energy consumption.