At present, the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy is increasingly reflected in banks, and domestic banks are facing increasing risks, operating and profit pressures. But it also contains many unprecedented opportunities. "
The global financial crisis we are experiencing has a wide range, deep influence and strong impact, which is rare since the 1930s. In the past two years, the financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has intensified, rapidly infiltrating the capital market, money market and credit market, from local development to the whole world, from the financial field to the real economy, which has seriously affected the economic development and people's lives of all countries in the world.
At present, the trend of global financial crisis escalating into global economic crisis is increasingly prominent. This has brought a huge impact on China's investment and export-led economic growth model that has lasted for many years. Since the second half of last year, China's economic growth rate has fallen sharply, industrial production has slowed down significantly, business operations have become more difficult, fiscal revenue growth has declined, and the asset market has continued to slump. The impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy has spread from export industries to many export-related industries such as raw materials, processing and transportation, from developed coastal areas to remote areas in the mainland, and from small and medium-sized enterprises to large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. China's economy is facing the most difficult moment since entering the new century.
Because the domestic banking industry is not deeply involved in the international market, coupled with the isolation of commercial banks from the capital market in recent years and the effective implementation of prudential supervision policies by the regulatory authorities, the financial crisis has little direct impact on China's banking industry, and the direct losses suffered by domestic banks are limited. However, finance is a reflection of economy. If the economy goes wrong, it will definitely go wrong. At present, the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy is increasingly reflected in banks, and domestic banks are facing increasing risks, operating and profit pressures. From the perspective of business development, in the case of economic downturn, cold market and frustrated confidence, the functions of banks as social financing intermediaries, payment intermediaries and wealth management intermediaries have been greatly suppressed, whether it is general loan business such as corporate credit, personal credit and trade financing, or corporate bond business such as corporate bonds and interbank bonds; Whether it is payment business such as POS consumption, agency service, custody, settlement and clearing, or wealth management business such as QDII, foreign exchange investment and structured products, it is difficult to expand the market. From the perspective of risk prevention, under the superposition of the global financial crisis and the domestic economic downturn, the risks faced by banks are constantly showing systematic, chain-like and sudden characteristics and trends, including industry risks, credit risks, interest rate exchange rate risks, liquidity risks, operational risks, compliance risks and reputation risks, which are intertwined and mutually influenced. If the bank is not careful, it may fall into the abyss. From the perspective of profitability, the growth rate of bank's net profit will obviously slow down this year and even in the future. It is difficult to reproduce the situation of extraordinary growth in the past under the comprehensive effect of factors such as weakening effective credit demand, narrowing deposit-loan spreads, rising interest expense, weak growth of intermediary business, gradual increase of risk assets and substantial increase of provision expenses.
However, the crisis also contains the factor of opportunity, as the British writer Bridger said, "The Chinese word' crisis' is divided into two words, one meaning danger and the other meaning opportunity." Indeed, crises are always accompanied by opportunities, and crises are organic. As long as you are good at discovering, grasping and firmly grasping the opportunity in the crisis, the crisis will become a turning point. Judging from the development law of things, everything is a unity of contradictions, and the strength of both sides of contradictions will change with the change of the situation, and the primary and secondary positions will be reversed, thus making a qualitative change. The so-called "misfortune and happiness depend on it, and happiness and misfortune lie in it" is the truth; From the perspective of business cycle theory, the economy always operates in four stages: prosperity, recession, depression and recovery. After the depression, there is a new round of recovery. Therefore, the famous economist Schumpeter once said, "Don't worry about the crisis. For the market economy, depression is a good sobering agent "; From the historical and practical experience, it is precisely because of seizing the opportunity in the crisis that many enterprises have achieved leap-forward development, such as the global rise of IBM after the Great Depression, the glory of Japanese automobile industry after the oil crisis in the 1970s, and the take-off of Samsung Electronics after the Asian financial crisis. In short, crises often shake old rules and promote changes, thus becoming a turning point in major historical events.
In the context of the global financial crisis, we see that not all banks in the United States are useless. Citigroup has been hit, but one or two banks have performed well. We can see that the US stock index rose sharply the day before yesterday, mainly due to the performance of Wells Fargo. We can see China. It is thought that after the financial crisis, commercial banks in China will be reluctant to lend during the financial crisis. Because during the Asian financial crisis ten years ago, China's commercial banks were generally reluctant to lend. This operation can not only smooth the fluctuation degree of China's real economy, but also realize the benign interaction between China's banking industry and the real economy. This is the premise for China's economy to get through this round of financial crisis first. So I think if the banking industry in China keeps growing, what do we think the banking industry in China will do in the future, and will it adopt a counter-cyclical strategy?
Constructing the Core Competitiveness of China Commercial Bank
Core competitiveness is the ability to effectively integrate enterprise resources and support the sustainable competitive advantage of enterprises. Building and cultivating core competitiveness is the key for enterprises to win market competition, expand development space and realize sustainable growth. Under the situation that the financial market is about to be fully opened, it has become an important and urgent practical problem that Chinese commercial banks must pay attention to and seriously solve. Then, we must realize the strategic significance of accelerating the construction of the core competitiveness of commercial banks.
Strategic significance of accelerating the construction of core competitiveness of commercial banks
In recent years, the operating environment of China's commercial banks is undergoing profound and significant changes. The rapid evolution of bank market structure has increased the difficulty of bank business expansion and accelerated the differentiation of new profits of banks; The drastic change of financial game rules poses a severe challenge to the traditional profit model of banks; The upgrading of social demand structure has brought great impact to the traditional single business structure of banks. Under this background, whether we can speed up the construction of core competitiveness is not only related to the development of commercial banks themselves, but also related to the macro-economic and financial operation of our country.
The urgent requirement of participating in global financial competition
With the deepening of financial opening to the outside world and the influx of foreign banks, the international competition in the domestic banking market has become increasingly prominent. Compared with foreign banks, especially banks in developed countries (regions), domestic banks still have a big gap. For example, the profit rate of Tier 1 capital is 1 9.9% for the British Banker magazine, 26.3% for American banks and only16.0% for domestic banks. From the perspective of return on assets, the average rate of 1000 big banks is 0.90%, while domestic banks are only 0.59%; In terms of Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, the average of 1000 big banks is 4.53%, while the average of 19 big banks in China is only 3.74%. In terms of non-performing loan ratio, banks in the United States and the European Union are 0.79% and 0.90% on average, while domestic banks are around 10%. The comparison of these data shows that the international competitiveness of domestic commercial banks is still relatively weak. If we can't improve our international competitiveness quickly after the financial opening up, then our future development will be passive.
The inevitable choice of actively adapting to the changes of social needs
With the rapid development of market economy, great changes have taken place in China's social and financial needs in recent years: the demand for wealth management of residents is growing day by day; The demand for consumer credit is growing rapidly; The demand for enterprise financial management is increasing; With the rapid development of small and medium-sized enterprises, the demand for bank financing services, product innovation and financial advisory services is increasing. Faced with the huge changes in social demand and the new profit growth points it brings, commercial banks can only win the market and customers by enhancing their market response ability, business innovation ability and risk management ability, and then comprehensively enhancing their core competitiveness.
Strategic measures to effectively deal with the reform of financial system
With the deepening of the financial system reform and the acceleration of the process, great changes have taken place in the domestic financial system environment, and the pressure on the management of commercial banks is increasing. For example, with the further acceleration of interest rate marketization and exchange rate reform, the risks faced by domestic banks have expanded from a single credit risk in the past to a variety of risks including credit risk, market risk and operational risk. Whether commercial banks can control both credit risk and market risk effectively under the condition of insufficient management experience puts forward a new test for our product pricing ability and risk management ability. For another example, with the rapid development of direct financing tools such as short-term financing bills and asset-backed bills, and the construction of a multi-level financial market system, financial disintermediation has caused a huge impact on the asset business of commercial banks. In this case, whether the traditional business philosophy and mode of banks can be changed and whether the business structure and customer structure can be smoothly adjusted is directly related to the promotion of the bank's market competitiveness. In addition, with the regulatory concept, means and technology of the regulatory authorities approaching the international level, the rules and regulations faced by domestic banks are becoming increasingly rigid. How to adapt to the new regulatory requirements and realize the transformation from scale expansion to value-benefit development mode is a realistic topic that domestic commercial banks must answer to further build their core competitiveness.
The direction of China Commercial Bank's efforts to build its core competitiveness
Modern enterprise theory shows that as the source of long-term competitive advantage, the formation of core competitiveness is a systematic process, involving many factors such as system construction, product innovation, technical level and talent quality, rather than the result of a simple function of a certain factor. Moreover, different industries and enterprises, due to different business objects and nature, have different connotations and manifestations of core competitiveness. Focusing on the transformation stage and the internal characteristics of China's commercial banks, we should focus on building the core competitiveness of China's commercial banks from five aspects: institutional innovation ability, service supply ability, risk management ability, technology application ability and talent cohesion ability.
Focus on improving corporate governance and strive to improve the ability of institutional innovation.
Institutional innovation is the foundation of organizational innovation, product innovation and technological innovation, and the guarantee of enterprise growth. From the development history of commercial banks, the rise and development of large modern commercial banks are highly related to the emergence and development of modern enterprise system. Promoting institutional innovation is the premise of building the core competitiveness of China commercial banks.
For China commercial banks in the transitional period, the core issue of strengthening institutional innovation is to constantly improve the corporate governance structure and accelerate the construction of a modern financial enterprise system. First, accelerate the reform of bank property rights system, and form a diversified property rights structure by introducing strategic investors, joint-stock reform, reorganization and listing, etc. Second, improve the functions of the board of directors and its special committees, strengthen the functions of the board of supervisors, and form an independent, coordinated and balanced relationship between shareholders and operators; Third, implement long-term incentives such as stock options and employee stock ownership to shape the long-term rational behavior of bank management and employees; The fourth is to strengthen the information disclosure mechanism and give full play to the role of external governance mechanisms.
Pay attention to value innovation and strive to improve service supply capacity.
Value innovation is a new concept of enterprise competition. It is not simply to improve the technical competitiveness of products and services, but to win customers and win competition by creating more value for customers. As a service industry, the competition of banking industry is essentially the competition of service ability, and the strength of service ability focuses on whether the products and services provided by banks can add value to customers.
To increase customer value and improve service supply capacity, firstly, establish a service concept, build a good service culture, and win customers and markets by constantly creating customer-satisfied service needs, so that banks can gain inexhaustible development momentum; Second, it is necessary to carry out continuous product innovation and be able to tailor personalized products for customers; Third, starting from market segments, we will provide customers with more comprehensive, faster and more valuable services through differentiated products, high-quality services, diversified channels and modern means.
Strive to improve the ability of risk management with the goal of comprehensive risk management.
Judging from the development trend of modern commercial banks, it is very important to build a comprehensive risk management system with RAROC as the core to improve the risk management ability of banks. Since the 1980s, with the intensification of banking competition, the narrowing of deposit and loan spreads, the widespread use of derivative financial instruments, especially the rise of the wave of financial liberalization, the risks faced by commercial banks have shown a trend of diversification, complexity and globalization. Marked by the publication of the draft of the new Basel Capital Accord, the risk management of modern commercial banks has changed from traditional credit risk management to credit risk, market risk and operational risk, which has caused the reengineering of bank organizational system, management process and business process.
Under this background, domestic banks should firmly establish the concept of comprehensive risk, learn from and master the latest development achievements of risk management technology of modern commercial banks, and on the basis of accurately quantifying risks, cover the expected losses of banks with product risk pricing, cover the unexpected losses with scientifically measured economic capital, comprehensively manage the three major risks of credit risk, market risk and operational risk, and gradually establish a comprehensive risk management system in line with international standards.
Focus on information system construction and strive to improve the ability of technology application.
In the information age, the bank's product innovation, data processing, business operation and management decision-making are all inseparable from the strong support of information technology. The application ability and system development ability of information technology are the key factors to determine the competitiveness and management success or failure of banks. From the experience of international banking informatization construction, the key to improve the bank's technical application ability is to strengthen the bank's information system construction. By establishing a sound asset-liability management system, a scientific risk management system, an advanced customer relationship management system, an effective cost accounting system and an efficient operational service system, it will lay a solid technical foundation for commercial banks to enhance their product innovation ability, service efficiency and scientific decision-making.
Based on cultivating high-level talents, we should strive to improve the ability of human resource management.
The change of bank's operating environment, the expansion of service function and the change of business model put forward newer and higher requirements for the quality of talents of banks. Whether the human resource management ability can adapt to these changes directly determines the future competition and development of commercial banks. At present, China's commercial banks are relatively short of high-level management talents and professional and technical talents, and the level of human resources development and management cannot meet the needs of international competition and development of banks. With the coming of full financial opening, domestic banks must formulate international talent introduction and training strategies with a higher and farther vision, and build an international and professional team of high-quality talents through the combination of independent training and external introduction.
Strategies for Commercial Banks to Build Core Competitiveness
Under the new situation that finance is about to be fully opened, domestic commercial banks must pay close attention to and think deeply about how to further consolidate and enhance market competitiveness and continuously enhance their future business development advantages. We believe that it is very realistic to make the following arrangements strategically.
Subvert traditional ideas
Due to the limitation of history and practice, our understanding of the development law of modern commercial banks is still very insufficient. Traditional management concepts and business models still dominate our business activities to some extent. If we don't creatively destroy and innovate those traditional concepts and models, we will not be able to establish core competitiveness. Judging from the practice of China Merchants Bank, we should strive to achieve "ten changes" in the future. Innovatively establish a brand-new business development model through "ten changes". This "ten changes" is the change from scale-oriented to value-oriented in the development model; In the evaluation criteria, the book profit is changed to economic profit; In terms of marketing methods, extensive marketing becomes precise marketing; In the choice of customers, we have changed from focusing on Excellence to focusing on quality. In risk management, change control risk into management risk; In the income structure, change the single profit into multiple profits; In product pricing, change passive pricing into active pricing; In asset-liability management, variable proportion management is capital management; In the organizational structure, the department bank is changed to the process bank; In the internal linkage, administrative adjustment becomes interest adjustment.
Adjust the management structure
Strategic transformation is the same theme faced by domestic commercial banks. We believe that in order to successfully realize the transformation of business strategy, the starting point is to vigorously adjust the business structure, and the focus of adjustment is to grasp four aspects. The first is the adjustment of asset structure. In total assets, gradually reduce the proportion of credit assets and appropriately increase the proportion of local and foreign currency bond investment; In credit assets, gradually reduce the proportion of general loans and continuously increase the proportion of discounted bills; In general loans, appropriately reduce the proportion of public loans and gradually increase the proportion of personal credit; Gradually increase the proportion of trade financing in corporate loans. The second is the adjustment of debt structure. Actively issue a certain number of financial bonds, increase the proportion of active liabilities, and enhance the overall regulation and control ability of liabilities. The third is the adjustment of customer structure. Strive to realize the transformation from a customer structure that focuses on large customers to a customer structure that pays equal attention to large, medium and small customers. The fourth is the adjustment of income structure. Efforts will be made to increase the proportion of private business income and non-spread income, and form a profit model in which wholesale business and retail business, interest income and intermediary business are equally developed.
Promote integrated management
With the full opening of the financial industry, it is the general trend for China's financial industry to implement comprehensive management. Commercial banks should take financial innovation as the driving force, actively explore and develop integrated operations within the framework permitted by laws and policies and with the strong support of regulatory authorities. At present, we can start the following work: first, further strengthen cooperation with non-bank financial institutions, carry out cross-selling, and actively innovate cross-market and compound financial products; Second, based on the capital market, more commercial bank products, such as credit asset securitization, active liabilities, asset-backed notes, etc. Third, strive to run fund management companies well; The fourth is to explore the establishment of organizational systems such as bank insurance and bank trust under the conditions permitted by policies.
Reform the organizational system
Drawing lessons from the experience of foreign modern commercial banks, using the idea of process banking, building a vertical, flat and professional organizational structure according to business lines, and implementing a matrix management system combining business line management with branch regional management is the basic direction of organizational system reform. At present, most domestic banks are reforming their own organizational system according to the idea of "process bank" and the mode of business division system. Some banks have achieved initial results, and this work should be further actively and steadily promoted.
Improve management technology
Accelerating the internationalization of management, especially the convergence of management methods and technologies with international excellent banks, is the key for commercial banks to enhance their international competitiveness. From the practice of China Merchants Bank, to improve management technology, we should speed up the application of management technologies and tools of advanced international banks, and establish and improve an operating performance evaluation system with risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) and economic added value (EVA) as the core on the basis of comprehensive application of modern management information systems such as financial cost accounting system, capital transfer pricing system, debt rating system and customer credit rating system. And scientific economic capital allocation mechanism, and then strengthen the business philosophy of capital coverage risk and capital return constraint, guide the rational flow and optimal allocation of economic resources, and promote the maximization of income after risk adjustment. At the same time, we should strengthen the construction of data warehouse, improve the information content of data warehouse, and provide necessary data support for the effective use of various management information systems.
Implement talent strategy
It is the strategic requirement for commercial banks to win the future to vigorously implement the talent strategy and do everything possible to strengthen the introduction, training and encouragement of outstanding talents. We should make active efforts in the following aspects: first, reform the salary distribution system, establish a salary system that is in line with the market, and at the same time explore starting a long-term incentive plan to combine the long-term interests of employees with the development of banks more closely; The second is to start a large-scale training program to improve the management quality of cadres at all levels and the majority of account managers, especially to train a group of compound and international talents with profound theoretical literacy, rich practical experience, ability to control the overall situation, professional expertise, overseas work experience and familiarity with China's national conditions in a planned and organized way; Third, strengthen the assessment management of leading bodies and cadres at all levels, and cultivate a group of outstanding cadres with both morality, ability and diligence by increasing open competition and 360-degree assessment; Fourth, steadily promote the construction of professional job sequence, build a concise, clear and scientific professional job sequence system, and broaden the career channels for employees; The fifth is to strengthen the construction of corporate culture and create a harmonious, relaxed, supportive, energetic and enterprising working atmosphere.