1. No GDP target growth rate has been set.
Economic growth target is the most concerned content of all walks of life. 2020 is the closing year of building a well-off society in an all-round way. For 2020, the binding goal is to double the gross domestic product (GDP) and the per capita income ratio of urban and rural residents in 202010.
Cai Fang, vice president of China Academy of Social Sciences, once wrote in People's Daily that the goal of doubling residents' income can be achieved as long as the growth rate reaches 1.9% in 2020. In terms of GDP, as long as the growth rate reaches about 5.7% in 2020, statistical accuracy can be achieved.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the economic growth rate in the first quarter was -6.8%, and the market thought that the goal of doubling GDP was difficult to achieve. Therefore, the market has two major concerns: first, whether to set the GDP growth target this year; Second, if it is decided, what will be the goal?
According to the government work report, there is no specific target for economic growth this year, mainly because the global epidemic situation and the economic and trade situation are very uncertain, and China's development faces some unpredictable factors. This will help guide all parties to concentrate on the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees". "Six Guarantees" is the focus of this year's "Six Guarantees" work. Only by keeping the bottom line of "six guarantees" can we stabilize the basic economic disk; Only by striving for progress steadily can we lay a solid foundation for building a well-off society in an all-round way.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications, said that not setting a GDP target this year is an important decision made by comprehensively considering changes in the internal and external environment, reflecting a pragmatic attitude and the spirit of seeking truth from facts. At present, the negative economic growth in the first quarter has become a fait accompli, and the spread of overseas epidemics has continuously impacted the global economy. This year, China's economy is facing great uncertainty. At this time, rigidly setting annual growth targets, especially pursuing higher growth targets, is likely to interfere with the established task of promoting epidemic prevention and control and overall economic and social development; And if you set a very low growth target, the actual guiding significance of this target will be less.
2. The employment priority policy has been comprehensively strengthened.
Affected by the epidemic, the survey unemployment rate has rebounded this year: in April, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 6.0%, up 0. 1 percentage point from March. Because of the epidemic, the government work report slightly relaxed the relevant indicators.
In terms of specific indicators, the government work report in 2004 first proposed "9 million new jobs in cities and towns", and 16 years this goal has never been absent. 2017-201100000 urban employment target, this year's target is 9 million.
The unemployment rate in urban survey covers migrant workers and other urban residents, which can reflect the employment situation more comprehensively. The target for the previous two years was below 5.5%, and this year it is 6%.
Tang Jianwei said that the epidemic had a great impact on the employment situation this year. Therefore, ensuring employment is not only an urgent task, but also an important starting point for doing a good job in ensuring people's livelihood throughout the year. In the previous "six guarantees" and "six guarantees", stabilizing employment and ensuring residents' employment are the primary tasks.
"Employment stability is an important guarantee for building a well-off society in an all-round way." Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, said.
20 19 employment priority policy was put on the macro-policy level for the first time. This year's government work report says that the employment priority policy will be comprehensively strengthened. Fiscal, monetary and investment policies should focus on supporting stable employment. The expression has been strengthened compared with last year.
3. A proactive fiscal policy should be more proactive.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in February, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference and the National People's Congress have given instructions on fiscal policy, and a more active and promising tone of fiscal policy has been basically established.
A few days ago, Minister of Finance Liu Kun wrote that a proactive fiscal policy should be more active, vigorously improve quality and efficiency, increase countercyclical adjustment, and effectively hedge the impact of the epidemic; Maintain pressure, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, and fully implement budget performance management; Make good use of local government special bonds to prevent and resolve the hidden debt risks of local governments.
4. deficit ratio exceeded 3% for the first time.
In 20 19, deficit ratio was 2.8%, which was 0.2 percentage point away from the warning line of 3%. According to the recent Politburo meeting, the market has expected deficit ratio to increase its fiscal deficit ratio by more than 3%. According to the government work report, deficit ratio plans to allocate more than 3.6% this year, and the fiscal deficit will increase by 1 trillion yuan compared with last year.
This is the first time that deficit ratio has exceeded 3%. Last year, the deficit was 2.76 trillion yuan, which will increase to 3.76 trillion yuan this year, and the issuance scale of national debt and new local general debt will increase.
"In the context that the epidemic will lead to a decrease in income and an increase in expenditure in 2020, the fiscal balance may face greater pressure. Improving deficit ratio will alleviate the problem of fiscal balance. " Li Chao said.
5. Special debt increased by10.6 trillion yuan.
Special bonds were first issued in 20 15, and10 billion was issued that year. In 20 16 and 20 17, its circulation increased to 400 billion and 800 billion respectively. It broke through 1 trillion for the first time in 20 18, and expanded to 2. 15 trillion in 20 19. The large-scale issuance and use of special bonds has played an important role in stabilizing investment and economy.
This year, the issuance scale of special bonds is set at 3.75 trillion yuan, an increase of10.6 trillion yuan compared with last year, which is the highest in history. In the early stage, the Ministry of Finance has issued a special debt quota of 2.29 trillion yuan, which means that there is still a quota of 1.46 trillion yuan to be issued.
In terms of issuance, by the end of April, 65,438+0.65,438+0.5 trillion special bonds had been issued, accounting for 50% of the pre-approved quota.
6. Issue 1 trillion special anti-epidemic treasury bonds.
Special national debt is a kind of national debt, which serves specific policies and supports the needs of specific projects, so it is called special national debt. During the development of China's national debt, two special bonds were issued: in August, 1998, and 270 billion yuan was issued to raise funds to supplement the capital of the four major banks. In June 2007, 200 billion US dollars of special treasury bonds were issued to purchase foreign exchange for capital injection into China Investment Corporation. This year is the third special national debt (excluding extension).
According to the government work report, issuing 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds is a special measure in a special period. It will be transferred to local governments, and a special transfer payment mechanism will be established. The funds will go directly to the grassroots level of cities and counties, directly benefiting enterprises and people, and will be mainly used to protect employment, basic people's livelihood and market players, including supporting tax reduction and fee reduction, rent reduction and interest rate reduction, and expanding consumption and investment. , strengthen the public's financial attributes, and never allow interception and misappropriation.
At present, the specific distribution method is not clear, but the market of 1 trillion scale can be digested without direct purchase by the central bank.
7. A prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, and it is still possible to reduce RRR and cut interest rates.
There are five main types of monetary policies in China: loose, moderately loose, steady, moderately tight and tight. In 2009, due to the impact of the financial crisis, a moderately loose monetary policy was implemented that year. After 20 10, China has been implementing a prudent monetary policy. The arrangement of the Central Economic Work Conference held in February 20 19 was that the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and the liquidity should be reasonable and sufficient.
This year's report says that a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate. Comprehensive use of RRR interest rate cuts, interest rate cuts, refinancing and other means. "The current economic environment is complex and many economic variables are still uncertain. In this case, only more flexible measures can be taken. " Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said.
There is still the possibility of reducing RRR and cutting interest rates this year. Zhu, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that there is still room for the reserve ratio to fall, about 100BP (or other long-term liquidity measures of the same magnitude). It may be landed twice, and the specific time will match the landing time of fiscal policy, such as the subsequent large-scale issuance of local special bonds and the issuance of special government bonds.
In terms of interest rate cuts, "with the peak of this round of' pig inflation', the rapid downward trend of CPI growth in March and April will continue in the second half of the year, and it is expected that it will fall to the' second era' in the third quarter, and the inhibitory effect of inflation on interest rate cuts will be significantly weakened." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said, "In the future, with a view to stabilizing the overall employment situation and boosting the short-term economic growth momentum, the pace of interest rate cut by the central bank may be moderately accelerated in June, and it is expected that the MLF interest rate may be lowered by 10-20 basis points in that month.
The growth rate of 8.8. M2 and social financing were higher than last year, and the macro leverage ratio rose in stages.
From 20 16, the growth target of social integration was included in the government work report for the first time: the growth target of m 2 and social integration was 13% in that year, and it was lowered to 12% in 20 17. Since then, no specific quantitative targets have been set for the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale: in 20 18, it is "to keep the M2 of broad money and the scale of credit and social financing grow reasonably", and in 20 19, it is "the growth rate of M2 and social financing scale should match the nominal growth rate of GDP".
This year, it will guide the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale to be significantly higher than last year.
According to the data of the central bank, at the end of 65,438+in February last year, the balance of broad money M2 was 198.65 trillion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively. At the end of 20 19, the growth rate of social financing scale was 10.7%.
The industry sometimes uses M2 or social finance divided by GDP to measure the macro leverage ratio of an economy. Considering that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is lower than last year, and the growth targets of M2 and GDP are higher than last year, the macro leverage ratio will increase in stages.
9. Innovate monetary policy tools that directly face the real economy.
On April 17, the Politburo meeting put forward the "six guarantees" for the first time on the basis of the "six guarantees" to ensure residents' employment, basic livelihood, market players, food and energy security, industrial chain supply chain stability and grass-roots operation. Among them, the main body of the insurance market is to protect small and micro enterprises.
The report believes that the innovation of monetary policy tools that go directly to the real economy needs to facilitate enterprises to obtain loans and promote the continuous downward trend of interest rates. China's financial system is dominated by indirect financing. Direct access to the real economy means bypassing banks, which helps to improve the transmission of monetary policy.
Last year, the government work report put forward the goal of small and micro loans for the first time: the loans of small and micro enterprises in large state-owned commercial banks will increase by more than 30% in 20 19. This year's growth target has been raised to 40%.
"The year 2020 is the last year for China to implement the five-year plan for the development of inclusive finance. After the outbreak of the epidemic, small and medium-sized enterprises in China are facing great difficulties. It is more important and urgent to accelerate the development of inclusive finance and strengthen services for small and medium-sized enterprises. " Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Wang Xin Bank, said.
10. Insist on housing and not speculation.
According to the report, insisting that the house is used for living, not for speculation, promotes the stable and healthy development of the real estate market because of the city's policy.
Since the adjustment of the property market in the second half of 2065438+2008, some cities have fine-tuned the control measures according to the principle of "one city, one policy". This year, due to the impact of the epidemic, a few third-and fourth-tier cities tried to relax regulation. However, as long as it involves relaxing restrictions on purchases and loans, it has been withdrawn. This shows that the basic principles of real estate regulation cannot be challenged.