1. As the central bank no longer linked the currency to the price of gold, "currency" became.
For an ambiguous concept. It becomes a promise to be paid, not a treasure stored forever. Of course, most central banks still have a certain amount of gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves that can be saved in times of financial turmoil. Central banks around the world have only about $845 billion worth of gold (logo 1 above). Central banks don't need more gold reserves, because they can print money when there is a serious crisis. The United States and Britain will soon start printing money.
2. Economists' narrow definition of "money" is the cash in circulation plus the reserves of commercial banks in the central bank. From June 5438 to October 2008 10, the global cash in circulation was about $3.9 trillion (Mark 2 above).
Since the bank collapse, people began to feel nervous about the reliability of banks. Under the "partial reserve bank" system, banks can issue loans several times as much as deposits, but their reserves in the central bank are relatively small.
Every time a bank lends out 4 yuan, it has only 1 yuan in the central bank. If you deposit 100 yuan in the bank, the bank can lend 80 yuan to a person who wants to buy a car; After the car companies collect the money, they deposit the 80 yuan in the bank, and the bank can lend the 64 yuan to others, and so on. Your deposit is 65,438+000 yuan, and the bank can lend 360 yuan at most. Due to the endless tricks of commercial banks to encourage people to borrow money, the assets and liabilities of large commercial banks in various countries have expanded to 39 trillion US dollars (above Mark 3).
When the economic bubble burst, people criticized that the banking supervision system had gone wrong. But if we compare the supervision of commercial banks with the so-called "shadow banking system", it is a drop in the bucket. Under the leadership of investment banks and hedge funds, traders are constantly innovating more extreme ways to break through the restrictions on borrowing money and improve returns. The value of global credit derivatives has reached an astonishing $863 trillion, which is many times the total value of all economic activities in the world.
Huge bubbles have been formed, and now they are bursting one after another. How much money is there in the world? It's hard to calculate. According to economists' estimation, the total value of global assets has reached 290 trillion (above mark 4), but the global GDP is only 55 trillion US dollars.
Nominally, we all feel good about ourselves and feel rich, so we dare to spend money.
Looking at this inverted pyramid from the bottom up, the value of debt and assets far exceeds the output value we have.
Just like some "inverted pyramids" deceive investors with the promise of high return on capital, and use the investment of post-investors to pay former investors (logo 5 above), when we all firmly believe that the economy is growing, the debt is also surging. Once the crisis comes, it will really "suddenly collapse like a building."
7. The government's attempt to maintain stability by injecting capital into the banking system may not be completely useless, but it is really a drop in the bucket. The government has injected about 65,438+0.9 trillion yuan into the banking system (the white part in logo 6 above).
8. The formula for the amount of money is actually very simple: MV = PQ (logo 7 above), and these four letters stand for:
demand for money
V. Velocity of money circulation
price of commodities
Q quantity of goods
During the period of economic prosperity, various financial innovation tools accelerated the circulation speed of money. Now banks no longer lend to each other, and the circulation speed slows down immediately. Even if the money supply increases, it is still not enough to prevent the sharp decline in commodity prices or GDP. He Xun
See how the stock market wealth evaporates from "a hat"
"Last year, the evaporation market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 20 trillion!" "The market is 6000 to 1700. Who made it like this? " "How did I buy Yunnan copper from 90 yuan to 7 yuan? Where did the money lost in the stock market go? " These questions are not only what investors want to know, but also what everyone wants to know.
Gui, director of Shen Yin International Market Research Institute, made a vivid metaphor.
"There used to be a one-dollar hat on the market. Due to various reasons, many people think it is valuable, so everyone rushed to buy it. The hat was fried from 1 yuan to 3 yuan money, then to 5 yuan money, and finally to 8 yuan money. When the person who bought the hat with 8 yuan money found that no one wanted to buy it at a high price, he felt that the situation was not good, so he was willing to sell the hat with 7 yuan money, while the person who bought the hat with 7 yuan money hoped that someone would buy it at 8 yuan or even higher price. However, when he found that no one was willing to buy this hat at a higher price, he sold it at a lower price ... This is the road map for the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to evaporate by more than 20 trillion yuan last year. " Gui Hao Ming described it very vividly.