"Subprime mortgage loan" is a kind of foreign housing credit, which is lent to people with low income or low personal credit record. The reason for lending to these people is that financial institutions can charge higher mortgage interest than mortgages with good credit ratings. When housing prices skyrocket, because the value of collateral is sufficient, the loan will not go wrong; However, when house prices fall, the value of collateral is no longer sufficient, the income of the mortgagor is not enough to make up for the price gap, and the mortgage default and the repossession of houses by banks will lead to the increase of bad debts of mortgage providers, the increase of bankruptcy cases of mortgage providers and the increase of systemic risks in financial markets. Due to the development of American real estate to the limit, house prices could not continue to rise, which triggered the subprime mortgage storm.
one
A mature financial system like the United States certainly knows the risks of subprime mortgage. Because we know that we will securitize subprime products and transfer the risks to the whole world. This is a typical marketing of bad financial products.
American financiers are extremely smart, they create liquidity (printing dollars in large quantities); Through fiscal deficit and trade deficit, the United States converts US dollars into foreign exchange balances of other countries and enterprises (mainly value-creating countries and export resource countries); Then use American real estate to absorb this liquidity. This logic of recycling dollars with bricks is essentially to transform global dollar monetary wealth into American national wealth. This is a perfect game to exchange paper money for wealth. The beauty of this game lies in the securitization of subprime mortgage products. It transforms lending behavior into investment behavior; The owner of secondary products will never have the opportunity to restore property rights to creditor's rights and must accept investment failure. In short, due to investment mistakes, they will automatically give up the wealth created by the people and the wealth exchanged with their own resources.
The name of this game is: financial product innovation. Its premise is global economic integration.
In fact, this is still a replica of the old Jewish financial scam. Exchange cleverly packaged garbage for your high-quality goods and assets, and let all your efforts go up in smoke.
This is a real financial robbery.
two
The subprime crisis is certainly not the end of the story.
Because export-dependent countries, such as China, have cruelly reduced their national welfare, their people's purchasing power is not enough to support too strong production capacity. In order to maintain employment, they must accept the fiscal deficit and trade deficit made in the United States. In other words, you must accept American dollars. In other words, we must lend money to Americans to buy our products. In order to maintain this logic, China and other countries can only further deprive national welfare, further exploit natural resources and further damage the environment. This tragic logic forms a kind of drug addiction sinking.
Anyone with common sense in economics knows that the issuance of money that does not create value not only provides liquidity to the economic system, but also leads to currency depreciation. This laid the groundwork for the large-scale depreciation of the US dollar.
Then, the question comes, the dollar depreciates, who holds the dollar?
You should know that American citizens don't save. They borrowed a lot of money through financial instruments and owned a lot of movable and immovable property. When the currency depreciates, they will be the beneficiaries of asset appreciation. The U.S. government is only in debt and has no cash burden. The depreciation of the dollar is equivalent to reducing government debt. American companies are buying back shares in cash at an extremely fast rate and minimizing their cash holdings. Some sensitive Hong Kong businessmen have also started to reduce their cash holdings on a large scale and buy back a large number of shares of their own companies.
The biggest victims will be countries, enterprises and individuals holding huge amounts of foreign exchange in US dollars. Of course, China government, enterprises and citizens of China are undoubtedly the first to bear the brunt. China government, enterprises and citizens will suffer huge foreign exchange losses. China's national wealth will suffer more than two Opium Wars because of its stupid management.
three
The subprime mortgage crisis will eventually end with the large-scale depreciation of the US dollar. This will promote the relative depreciation of the RMB, which is mainly linked to the US dollar. This means a sharp drop in the purchasing power of the RMB. Its conclusion is massive inflation. In fact, this round of inflation has quietly begun. It can't even be said that it started quietly. Asset prices (stock market and property market) soared and pork prices rose sharply. What will happen immediately is that food prices rose sharply and large-scale inflation is approaching. The terrible economic crisis is not a distant history.
When many people talk about inflation, they will repeatedly demonstrate the relationship between supply and demand. That means that in the face of China's strong production capacity, the limited money in the hands of China people will always exceed demand, and there will be no inflation, only deflation. This is a terrible false proposition. Because there is a hypothetical premise: never raise labor costs, destroy the environment endlessly, and continue to exploit resources predatively. If this premise does not exist, the contradiction between supply and demand will of course be reversed. In fact, the degree of labor marketization in China is already very high. The market-priced labor force began to increase in price, and the shortage of migrant workers is an example. The rise in pork prices is another example. It is impossible for farmers to lose money for a long time and supply indefinitely. The upcoming food rise is not only a case, but also a prelude to all problems.
The conclusion is terrible. Workers who are squeezed to the limit have unlimited demand and cannot provide unlimited supply. Limited demand and unlimited supply are just a myth. The result of myth disillusionment is inflation, and uncontrolled inflation will turn into an economic crisis.
four
Old imperialist Europe is sober. The euro continued to appreciate against the US dollar, rising by more than 50% from the bottom. Assets in the euro zone are also constantly appreciating. Moreover, rich Europe does not hold large amounts of dollars. At the same time, they have basically maintained the balance between national economic development and national welfare. They increase national welfare by providing liquidity rather than squeezing it.
five
China, or most post-industrialized countries, has the same psychological barrier as others. That is the shadow left by countless hot wars and half a century of cold war. In order to oppose imperialist aggression, we must enrich Qiang Bing. It is almost inevitable that rich countries will deprive national welfare in different degrees and ways.
The author has always believed that foreign exchange reserves, like the high land price policy, are special taxes for citizens. Undoubtedly, this special tax can quickly accumulate national wealth and increase national strength. However, as a hidden tax, it will continuously erode national welfare, weaken national purchasing power, and lead to social differentiation and abnormal national economic structure. Large-scale foreign exchange reserve is not only a monetary policy, but also a very important macroeconomic policy. When this policy goes to extremes, it becomes a cruel policy of plundering national welfare. However, this special tax behavior through monetary policy has the characteristics of concealment and gradual progress, which is not easy to be understood and discovered.
I repeat: foreign exchange balance is a kind of national income. When this national income cannot be converted into national expenditure, it is equivalent to the tax collected by the government from the people. When the so-called foreign exchange reserves become foreign bonds or overseas investments, it becomes China's capital export. Capital export is essentially the transfer of national welfare. When the investment fails (depreciates), it constitutes the loss of national welfare. The loss of China's national welfare can be regarded as the free subsidy of China government to foreign nationals.
What is very worrying is that if this special tax is completely converted into national wealth, it is understandable. As a socialist country, a rich country does not necessarily mean that the people are poor, and the state can take care of the people. However, this is not necessarily the case. Like the high land price policy, the beneficiary of foreign exchange reserves may not be the government. In the process of large-scale wealth redistribution, interest groups at home and abroad have become the main beneficiaries. The national economic policy has become a tool to deprive national welfare. Even a tool to transfer national welfare.
You know, everything is carried out within the existing system, laws and policies. You know, everything is for development and revival. You know, the management in China and the customers in China may not know what they are doing.
six
The subprime mortgage crisis didn't really affect China's economy immediately. Just as tropical cyclones in the Pacific Ocean have not yet formed typhoons and landed in China. However, this does not mean that the subprime mortgage crisis has nothing to do with China. On the contrary, it may land in Asia in the future, in China.
China's management time is short. China needs decisive, systematic and comprehensive macroeconomic policy adjustment.
The adjustment of China's macroeconomic policy is not as complicated as expected. In a word, benefit the people. However, China's macroeconomic policy adjustment is certainly more difficult than expected. Because there are many administrative departments involved in China's macro-policies, and the relationship between positions and interests is complex, it is extremely difficult to coordinate and unify.
The way to benefit the people can be embodied in all levels of macroeconomic policy:
Such as fiscal policy. Cancel all policy subsidies to enterprises (such as price monopoly of large enterprises, export tax rebate of foreign trade enterprises, use tax on low-asset resources, and non-dividend of state-owned enterprises). ).
Such as monetary policy. No more shameful negative interest rates; Reduce deposit and loan spreads; Abandon the exchange rate policy of keeping a close eye on the US dollar and gradually relax the exchange rate range until the linked exchange rate mechanism is abolished. Poor China should not become a big capital exporter.
Such as tax policy. Weaken the tax on labor income; Strengthen the taxation of assets and asset appreciation. Incorporate extra-tax charges into legal constraints to reduce the burden on the people. In particular, it is necessary to regulate the income from land sales, so as not to let it escape the dual jurisdiction of tax law and budget law, and become the unconstrained treasury of governments at all levels, the chaotic source of China's economy and the birthplace of corruption in China.
For example, real estate policy. It is imperative to establish the policy of China's urban micro-profit housing. The government allocates land for free, provides micro-profit houses that are not subletted and resold according to the proportion of urban population, subsidizes low-income residents, and suppresses the poverty of urban residents caused by soaring property prices.
In short, we must unswervingly adjust economic policies to benefit the people, improve national welfare quickly and orderly, improve national purchasing power, and increase the proportion of national purchasing power in GDP. With the rapid increase of domestic demand, we can digest the oversupply and resist the impact and destruction of the inflation crisis. This undoubtedly seriously tests the moral courage and management level of the top management.
seven
China is not without people who understand the economy. China just doesn't have the courage and ability to expose economic reality and care about national interests and welfare. At present, most of the "economists" who are active in China's academic, business and political circles are actually salesmen of products sold by various commercial organizations at home and abroad. "Economists" or "analysts" who are supported by institutions with high salaries are concerned about the interests or profits of institutions, or can be directly said to be the interests of special interest groups. Fighting for national interests and welfare is not their goal. Because the huge economic strength and social resources of the organization are enough to win the popularity of any spokesperson they need, they can occupy almost all the right to speak. They not only occupied the right to speak, but also produced a large number of concepts, logics and theories, which formed a systematic theoretical explanation that China economists spared no effort to help institutions deprive national interests and national welfare, and formed a very shameless but spectacular "Bel Canto" chorus.
China has never lacked talents in its history. However, reforms similar to Wang Anshi's and the Reform Movement of 1898 mostly ended in failure. The reason is that the interests of special interest groups often run counter to the interests of the country and the people. When special interest groups lose their national and historical views, they will become extremely stupid and cruel. They will abuse the right to speak and seek their own temporary self-interest until the kingdom collapses and the tragedy becomes history.
Thinkers in China are not familiar with economic problems. In fact, people in China don't even understand the simplest economic concepts such as wealth and output value. We know that development is the last word, simply defined as the rapid growth of GDP. For the sake of GDP, we do not hesitate to deprive national welfare, destroy the environment and waste resources. We don't know the meaning of assets and asset appreciation, let alone the meaning of wealth and wealth accumulation. We don't understand that the rapid growth of GDP does not mean the growth of assets and wealth. We don't know that labor income is not equal to capital income. We know how to create value, but we don't know how to own it, or even how to transfer and use it. Because of this, we will accept value exploitation and value plunder. Maybe we need to put it another way: the accumulation of national wealth is the last word.
However, the author is not pessimistic. After all, China has an excellent collective leader, China has a party that has experienced ups and downs, and China has more than one billion educated citizens. China, as a great country, will not lose the ability of independent thinking. I don't believe that China will be colonized by capital again. I also don't believe that the awakened world can accept such shameless and unscrupulous value plunder from western countries for a long time.
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