Current location - Loan Platform Complete Network - Foreign exchange account opening - What are the main indicators to measure financial security?
What are the main indicators to measure financial security?
The main indicators to measure financial security are:

1. Debt service ratio.

in the traditional sense, the debt service ratio refers to the ratio of the current foreign debt service payment to the export income of goods and services in the current year, which is generally considered to be safe below 2% internationally. Because this calculation method only considers the influence of current account on solvency, it is far from the reality that international capital flows increasingly frequently. Therefore, the revised debt service ratio II = current year's debt service amount/current year's foreign exchange reserves. Since foreign exchange reserves come from current account and capital account, they can provide debt repayment guarantee in the short term, which is more suitable as the denominator. It is generally believed that the debt service ratio II is not more than 3-5%.

2. Debt ratio.

it is the ratio of a country's foreign debt balance to the export income of goods and services in that year. This is the main reference index to measure a country's debt capacity and risk. The internationally recognized debt export ratio is 1%, and more than 1% is due to excessive foreign debt burden.

3. Debt ratio.

refers to the ratio of a country's foreign debt balance to its gross domestic product (GDP) in that year, indicating the dependence of a country's economic development on foreign debt, and the internationally recognized maximum limit is 1%. Sometimes the ratio of foreign debt balance to gross national product (GNP) is used to express the debt ratio, and the general reference safety value is below 2%.

4. Short-term debt ratio.

it refers to the proportion of short-term debts with a maturity of one year or less in the current year's foreign debt balance. This is an index to measure whether the term structure of a country's foreign debt is safe and reasonable. The internationally recognized short-term debt ratio is below 25%.

5. Other indicators

In addition to the above-mentioned commonly used indicators to measure a country's solvency and affordability, there are some other indicators for reference:

(1) Foreign exchange reserves/foreign debt balance. This is an important indicator reflecting a country's repayment ability. The international warning line range is 3-5%, and the increase or decrease of 1% is used as the warning line.

(2) foreign exchange reserves/short-term foreign debts. This is an important indicator to measure a country's ability to pay its debts quickly. The international warning line of this indicator is not less than 1%, and based on this, the warning line is increased or decreased by 1%. In addition, it is generally believed that when the foreign exchange reserve exceeds 5 times of the short-term foreign debt balance, it will suffer huge economic losses due to a large number of idle resources. Therefore, when the foreign exchange reserve/short-term foreign debt >: At 5%, the financial security degree drops to \ \ "risk \ \ \" state again.

(3) current account balance /GDP. This index mainly reflects the competitiveness of a country's foreign economic sectors. If the deficit accounts for too much of GDP, it shows that its foreign exchange earning departments are at a disadvantage in the competition. The persistent huge current account deficit constitutes the main factor of a country's economic external balance. For countries with fixed exchange rate system or pegged exchange rate system, in order to achieve a new equilibrium, their exchange rate may suddenly depreciate sharply under the trigger of a certain factor, which may lead to a financial crisis. Internationally, it is generally believed that no more than 5% is safe. Based on this, 1% is added or subtracted as a warning line.

(4) foreign exchange reserves /M2. This indicator is based on the principle of balance between supply and demand (which means that a country's foreign exchange reserves can not only ensure the normal balance of payments, but also effectively resist the impact of the financial crisis). There is no uniform international standard for this indicator. Domestic scholars take 12% as the benchmark and 3% as the warning line according to the experience of China.

(5) (FDI+current account balance) /GDP. The composition of capital flow and the openness of a country's capital market have become important factors for the stability of a country's foreign economic sector. Using foreign direct investment to make up the current account deficit or using securities investment that is easy to escape will have different consequences. The higher the proportion of foreign direct investment, the less the recipient countries will suffer from the sudden capital flight. The internationally recognized reasonable range is-2.5%-5%, based on which, 1% increase or decrease is taken as the warning line.