In fact, we might as well look at the effect of central bank regulation before making a guess. In June 5438+ 10, the credit increased greatly, but we saw that the shibor interest rate did not drop significantly in June 5438+ 10. On the contrary, it rose sharply a few days ago. In other words, the large-scale easing policy of the central bank has not been reflected in the interest rate market, and the increase of shibor probably occurred in the end of June, 65438+February, which attracted special attention. But it is natural for so much money to be released. Not in the real economy. In other words, if the central bank does not increase credit on a large scale in June 5438+ 10, the risk-free interest rate will definitely soar and the stock market may fall even worse. Therefore, we must understand that the large-scale credit supply by the central bank in June 5438+ 10 was the result of market stability, not the beginning of a large-scale stimulus to the economy.

First, large-scale economic stimulus has lost its focus. Now the real estate inventory is serious, and all industries have overcapacity. Even if trillions are thrown down, I'm afraid the marginal utility is zero, and there's nothing to misuse. On the contrary, it will lead to soaring prices and stagflation, which is a dead end of economic development. Even the United States has not found an effective solution to stagflation. So we won't choose this road.

Secondly, because the expectation of RMB appreciation has been completely reversed, although President Zhou said that there is no long-term basis for RMB depreciation, it is estimated that he dare not say that RMB will appreciate. Obviously, with the economic slowdown, the RMB is obviously overvalued. Just in the past 65438+ 10 month, the central bank used nearly10 billion foreign exchange reserves to defend the RMB, reducing China's foreign exchange reserves to 3.23 trillion US dollars. On the contrary, if there is no 654.38 billion foreign exchange reserves to defend the RMB exchange rate, it is estimated that the RMB will depreciate, which means that the trend of RMB depreciation has not changed, but we have taken over the market and temporarily supported the exchange rate. I believe everyone can see this, so I am afraid that capital outflow will still be a trend in the future. The money will be converted into US dollars in the form of RMB in commercial banks, and commercial banks will take these RMB to the central bank, so the central bank passively recovers RMB and releases US dollars, resulting in a sharp decrease in real money in the economy. The central bank desperately increases money, probably to hedge the gap in foreign currency losses. While the value of RMB is stable, release as much as you can. In two days, the RMB will depreciate again, so it is estimated that the central bank will not be able to let it go. This is a math problem in our primary school. The discharge pipe and the pumping pipe are simultaneously opened. At present, the flow of the pumping pipe is small, and the water level of the pumping pipe can be kept in balance when it is opened. Open the pump pipe again in a few days, and the water level in the pump pipe will not be able to hold down.

Third, the market interest rate deviates. Just now, we said that shibor did not drop significantly, and the increase in volume and price did not drop. This is a new problem for the central bank. It shows that the money is still not enough, but if it continues to be released, will it interfere with the pace of de-capacity and de-leverage? As we all know, in the financial field, the so-called leverage is money. If the central bank continues to release money, it will create a de facto real economy with leverage and a bubble. Obviously, this is against the central spirit. You will also put yourself in more danger. Of course, if more money is put in, it will trigger new expectations of exchange rate depreciation and bring difficulties to the central bank to stabilize the exchange rate market.

The inflection point of the central bank's balance sheet has appeared, and the de facto monetary expansion has turned into monetary contraction. )

So overall, the intention of the central bank is very clear. Monetary policy should be kept as loose as possible, and at the same time, financial risks should be prevented, and leverage should be coordinated to reduce production capacity. In addition, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations should be considered. Therefore, if the base currency is not enough, we should try our best to reduce the market interest rate and support the real economy for the winter. However, it is obviously not feasible to invest too much money. On the contrary, exchange rate depreciation will bring the pressure of hot money withdrawal and increase the difficulty of deleveraging. Bring new financial risks. Generally speaking, this year's regulation is very difficult. It is expected that the central bank will make more use of open market operations in monetary policy, and adjust it around to pursue a balance of interests. As for interest rate cuts and RRR cuts, it is estimated that there will not be too many times.

Finally, let's talk about the stock market. It is naturally good to have more money in the stock market, but we should also pay attention to the fact that the market interest rate has not decreased with more money, that is to say, it has not reached the situation of abundant funds in fact, so can we continue to invest so much base money in the future? I'm afraid not! So this kind of positivity is obviously impulsive and unsustainable. While we are partying, we should also guard against the risks after the carnival.