Participating in the market: Shanghai Futures Exchange
Investment Variety: Gold 0906 Contract
Invested capital: 6,543,800 yuan+0,000 yuan.
Estimated return on investment: about 46%
Investment risk: 5.6%
Operation reason
1, the short-term operability is still relatively strong. The international gold price has a strong changing trend. After the international gold price hit the mark of 1000 yuan in 2008, the price fluctuation rhythm remained at about 2 months, and with the deepening of the financial tsunami, the fluctuation range showed a slight increase. 10, 10 touched the resistance at the upper end of the descending channel and fell back for more than a month. Once the price rises above $750/oz, it will start to 1-2.
Although the fluctuation range of Shanghai-Tianjin is large every other day, according to the theory of long-short energy comparison, the following data can be obtained through BBI statistics: Since the listing of Shanghai-Tianjin 0906, the long-short energy index has issued 13 operation signals, of which 10 is correct for three times, and the recognition rate is 77%, which is still operable in the short and medium term.
2. Gold positioning: the medium and long lines are still in the uplink band, and now they are stepping back on the uplink channel line. The chart below shows the trend of London gold from 1975 to 1 1 in 2008. Since 2000, the upward trend driven by dollar depreciation and global inflation has come to an end. According to the adjustment time after 1980 hit a high level, the gold price will remain weak in the next 1-2 years, although it has been 1-2 years. This provides favorable conditions for investors to establish short positions at a higher level.
3. The activity of Shanghai gold futures is increasing day by day. At the same time, from the perspective of capital stock, after nearly four months of silence, gold is receiving more attention from funds, and its activity in the later period is still guaranteed.
The above picture shows the trend chart of Shanghai gold index price and position. Recently, a large amount of capital intervention and price decline have formed a sharp deviation, which may fulfill the law of price rebound from the end of last year to the beginning of next year.
Specific operation steps
1, point distribution
International gold (186, 1.74, 0.95%, bar) spot:
International gold spot trend chart. (Source: Guangdong Comprehensive Profit Futures)
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International gold spot has fallen sharply since it hit the double top near the thousand yuan mark in March 2008. At present, it is setting up a triangular arrangement at the price of $740 per ounce. In late June, after 10 fell below $750/oz, it repeatedly called back to test the resistance. Once the resistance range of 746-8 15 is confirmed, the first target below is 633 USD/oz, the second target is 520 USD/oz, and the second target is 520 USD/oz.
Jin Hu 0906:
Jin Hu 0906 chart. (Source: Guangdong Comprehensive Profit Futures)
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Shanghai gold main force 0906 contract 165438+ 10/9 just broke through the triangle arrangement. Based on the increase of habitual jewelry consumption in Asia at the end of the year and the adjustment around 90 dollars, a lot of domestic funds are being assembled on Shanghai Gold 0906. Through the statistics of long and short data, we can see that there are net positions and rebound energy is brewing. At present, the support is between 150- 156 yuan/gram. If it stabilizes, the first target is 172 yuan/gram, and the second target is 186 yuan/gram. However, the international gold price has built an M-top, and the range of 186- 193 can be turned into short selling.
Through the above analysis, the planned investment period can be operated in two ways:
1) Buy near 156 yuan/gram, close your position near 178 yuan/gram, and stop loss 15 1 yuan/gram.
Risk-return ratio: (156-151): (178-156) namely 1: 4.4.
However, if the position is closed near the low position 172 yuan/g, the risk-return ratio is (156-151): (172-156) that is1:3.
2) Short near 186 yuan, close your position near 160 yuan, and stop at 188.
Risk-return ratio: (188-186): (186-160), that is, 1: 13.
If the position is closed at 172, the risk-return ratio is (188-186): (186-172), that is, 1: 7.
2. Allocation of funds
Total investment 1 ten thousand yuan. Considering the price risk and fund elasticity, the actual operating funds are around 30% and 300,000 yuan.
1) The operating margin for short-term purchases is 14% (procedures are omitted in advance).
Step 1: Open the position.
sequence
give the opening quotation (on the exchange)
Stop loss price
Position (hand)
Margin (hand)
Use funds
Fund balance
Potential loss
AU0906
1 ten thousand
1
156
15 1
eight
2 1840
About 6.5438+0.8 million
-40000
Step 2: If you fall below the loss level and leave the market more than one, consider implementing the idea of 130 yuan/gram; If the direction is correct, execute:
sequence
give the opening quotation (on the exchange)
Stop loss price
Position (hand)
Margin (hand)
Use funds
Fund balance
Potential loss
AU0906
1 140,000
1
173
17 1
five
24220
About 65438+200,000
- 10000
If the direction is wrong, all positions are closed 17 1 yuan/gram, and the total profit and loss situation.
(171-156) *1000 * 8 shou-(173-171) *1000.
Step 3: Close the position when the target price is reached 178.
Profit and loss:
(178-156) *1000 * 8 hands+(178-173) *1000 * 5 hands =/kloc-0.
If the price is still strong around 178 yuan/gram, the short-long operation mode can be implemented, and the target resistance is 188 yuan/gram.
The biggest loss of this scheme:-40,000.
2) For mid-line selling, the deposit is 14%.
Step 1: Open the position.
sequence
give the opening quotation (on the exchange)
Stop loss price
Position (hand)
Margin (hand)
Use funds
Fund balance
Potential loss
AU0906
1 ten thousand
1
186
188
eight
26040
About 200 thousand
- 16000
Step 2: Break the stop loss position and pay attention to the resistance of 194 yuan/g-198 yuan/g in short positions. For high-risk positions, it is not recommended to chase more for the time being; If it runs in the expected direction, then:
sequence
give the opening quotation (on the exchange)
Stop loss price
Position (hand)
Margin (hand)
Use funds
Fund balance
Potential loss
AU0906
165438+200,000 yuan
1
17 1
173
five
23940
About 65438+ ten thousand
- 10000
If the direction is wrong, all positions will be closed at 173 yuan/gram, showing the total profit and loss.
(186-173) *1000 * 8 hands-(173-171) *1000 * 5 hands =
Step 3:
Reach the predetermined price 160 yuan/gram, and will close the position considering the situation.
Profit and loss:
(186-160) *1000 * 8 hands+(171-160) *1000 * 5 hands =
Step 4:
If the fundamentals match, 160 yuan/gram lightens the position by about 60% to 8 lots, leaving 5 lots and breaking 150 yuan/gram plus 3 lots:
sequence
give the opening quotation (on the exchange)
Stop loss price
target
financial market
Margin (hand)
Use funds
Fund balance
Potential loss
AU0906
About 13 10000.
1
150
152
130
three
2 1000
About 65,000
-6000
Reached 130 yuan/g, and all positions were closed.
Profit:
310000+(150-130) *1000 * 3 hands = 370000.
The maximum loss of this scheme is 6.5438+0.6 million.