First of all, the impact of interest rates on the macro-economy mainly includes:
1, the impact on residents' savings and consumption structure, when residents' income level is fixed, interest rates will go up to promote residents' savings and curb consumption.
2. For enterprises, raising interest rates will increase their investment costs, inhibit their investment and reduce their commodity output.
Second, other effects of interest rate changes:
1, which has an important impact on the balance of payments. Raising domestic interest rates can attract foreign capital inflows and reduce the deficit; On the contrary, lower interest rates, limit the inflow of foreign capital and adjust the unbalanced surplus.
2. Impact on exchange rate: interest rate rises, credit tightens, loans decrease, investment and consumption decrease, and prices fall. To a certain extent, it will restrain imports, promote exports, reduce foreign exchange demand, increase foreign exchange supply, reduce foreign exchange rate and increase local currency exchange rate. On the contrary, it will affect the exchange rate decline.
Extended data:
The interest rate cut will have a negative impact on the overall policy effect of macro-control. As mentioned above, the judgment of macro-economy and macro-control is one of the most important factors affecting the current monetary policy. Although macro-control has been effective now, it is still not in place. For this judgment, the central bank has clearly maintained a high degree of consistency with the National Development and Reform Commission.
Macro-control has two key points: one is to alleviate overcapacity, and the other is to stimulate consumption expansion. However, interest rate cuts may have adverse effects on these two aspects: First, interest rate cuts will reduce financing costs, and the enthusiasm of enterprises and local governments will be higher, which will inevitably lead to a sharp rebound in fixed asset investment and more serious overcapacity.
Second, the most favorable means to stimulate consumption is to increase the income of residents (especially the middle and low classes) and cultivate consumption hotspots, rather than lowering interest rates. Moreover, from the historical experience, in the case of economic downturn, interest rate cuts may not only not promote consumption, but will further reduce residents' income expectations and further reduce consumption.
China Economic Net-The interest rate of banks is difficult to adjust during the year.