The situation in Vietnam is really special. Because this country has a large trade deficit, it relies on remittances and direct investment. Compared with Indonesia and Thailand, Vietnam's exports account for more than twice the GDP. Mercantilist thinking hopes that the currency exchange rate will be lower to support exports. The active foreign exchange black market in some gold shops in Ho Chi Minh City also holds this idea.

The latest measures taken by the Central Bank of Vietnam-following the median reduction of the trading range of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar by 5.4% in October11October, and then by 3.4% in February-have brought the official exchange rate close to the unofficial exchange rate. This is expected to temporarily calm the fluctuations.

Expanding data protection for exporters may lead to undesirable side effects. According to the estimation of Barclays Capital, every time the Vietnamese dong depreciates 1% against the US dollar, the inflation rate will increase by about 15 basis points.

To make matters worse, the willingness to depreciate will only encourage investors and Vietnamese nationals (who already hold a large proportion of foreign exchange and gold assets) to avoid the local currency. When the VND hit a record low of 65,438+0 USD to 65,438+09,395 VND yesterday, the trend of the forward derivatives market shows that the VND exchange rate will exceed 20,000 within three to six months.

Baidu encyclopedia-Vietnamese dong