The outstanding feature of excess liquidity is that the Federal Reserve's "releasing water" has led to an increase in international commodity prices. It is estimated that the quantitative easing scale of the Federal Reserve will be around 2 trillion US dollars. Too much money chasing limited assets will lead to a rapid rise in the prices of international and domestic resource commodities and agricultural products, and the yield will continue to decline, which is the so-called asset bubble. Secondly, banking institutions have abundant sources of funds, and the growth rate of deposits is much faster than that of loans. The central bank's report "Analysis of Macroeconomic Situation in China in the Third Quarter of 20 10" shows that RMB deposits increased by 10.32 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, and the annualized deposit rate was 22.4% after excluding seasonal factors, which was 3 and 1.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of the second quarter and last year respectively. Also, the growth rate of money exceeds the growth rate of gdp.
The main curse of excess liquidity lies in the influx of international hot money. Most of these illegal inflows of hot money take the form of "ants moving", mainly including processing entrepot trade, foreign investment, service trade and personal channels. Some foreign-invested enterprises enter the agricultural products market after fictitious capital settlement, and some banks actively cooperate with or conform to customer needs and play a marginal role in foreign exchange management policies. Data show that in September this year, China's foreign trade surplus narrowed to $654.38+0.688 billion, and the fdi in that month was $8.384 billion, up 6.654+0% year-on-year. However, in September, the newly increased foreign exchange accounted for 289.565 billion yuan, an increase of 65.438+09. 19% compared with August, setting a new high for the year. According to another data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange 10 on October 27th, the surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange on behalf of customers in September was $28.4 billion, continuing the surplus scale of more than $25 billion in July and August. At the same time, as of the end of this year 10, the foreign exchange administration department * * * has verified all kinds of illegal foreign exchange cases 197, involving 7.34 billion US dollars, and has filed and punished illegal cases 178. These figures show that since the third quarter, especially since September, a large number of cross-border funds have flowed into China.
Therefore, radical measures must be taken to curb the price increase of agricultural products. First of all, it is necessary to change the current policies and measures of the central bank, not only to regulate the money supply and interest rates, but also to regulate the scale of new credit. In terms of monetary policy operation, we can consider not raising interest rates before the end of the year, and monetary policy regulation mainly adopts quantitative monetary policy tools. Secondly, the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is based on market supply and demand, forming a two-way fluctuation trend and continuously enhancing the flexibility of RMB exchange rate. As long as the average value of RMB exchange rate flexibility range remains basically stable, but the bottom keeps rising, we don't have to pay attention to the pressure from the United States and Europe. Third, strengthen the effective control and crackdown on hot money. 10 10 On 28th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported the number of cases and the amount of funds involved in the special campaign to crack down on hot money from February to June this year, and the foreign exchange business of nine bank branches was illegal. In the remaining two months of this year, foreign exchange management departments should focus on the reform of import and export verification, continue to promote trade facilitation, promote the reform of capital account management in an orderly manner, continue to use price mechanisms such as exchange rate and interest rate for reasonable guidance, maintain a high-pressure blow to international hot money flows, prevent them from strategically shorting China's market, and safeguard China's foreign-related economic and financial security.
In addition, of course, it is necessary to coordinate the current production of grain and "vegetable basket" products, promote the rapid development of grain and vegetable circulation, and ensure the effective supply of agricultural products in the market. At the same time, strictly rectify the market order of agricultural products, severely crack down on illegal hoarding of agricultural products, effectively strengthen the supervision of medium and long-term trading markets of bulk agricultural products, prohibit illegal futures trading, and resolutely ban the medium and long-term trading markets of bulk agricultural products where market organizers manipulate prices and misappropriate deposits.