According to the data released by China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, on July 10, the central parity of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was 1 USD to RMB 6.9943, up 142 basis points from the previous trading day. This is also the first time that the central parity of the RMB has returned to the "6 era" after more than three months, setting a new high in the past four months.

However, the "Securities Daily" reporter recently visited the bank outlets and found that this year, due to the epidemic, traveling abroad and studying abroad were restricted, and the "just need" of foreign exchange consumption plummeted. In addition, the range of exchange rate difference is gradually narrowing, and the gains can be very small.

The financial manager of a large state-owned bank said that at present, almost no one comes to the outlets to exchange foreign exchange. "From the perspective of customer demand, a few customers who have recently exchanged foreign exchange are still' just-needed' families, such as international students or companies that purchase foreign exchange for payment. Few customers use dollars for investment or asset allocation. "

"In the past, there were many people who came to our bank to exchange dollars during the summer vacation, and they lined up almost every day. This year has been deserted, and now the enthusiasm of consumers to exchange dollars has dropped significantly. " The business person in charge of another joint-stock bank outlet told this reporter.

The Securities Daily reporter learned from a number of bank outlets through the day's visit that there is a certain correlation between the cold of the exchange and the epidemic. "Customers' exchange of foreign exchange is either investment or consumption, but this year, affected by the epidemic, the demand in consumption abroad has dropped sharply. "And now many citizens exchange money directly through mobile banking, which is very convenient without coming to bank outlets.

Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with Securities Daily that there are two main reasons for the recent strong rebound of onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar. First of all, China's economy is basically sound, and the fundamentals are the support of the RMB exchange rate. Secondly, China continued to expand and deepen reform and opening up. All these make capital have more confidence in the development of China's capital market. At the same time, since the beginning of this year, the characteristics of RMB as a safe-haven asset have become more obvious. International investors have been optimistic about the development potential and prospects of China's capital market, and the capital began to continuously flow in, while the inflow of short-term capital supported the RMB exchange rate.

In Wen Bin's view, in the next stage, a basket of RMB exchange rates will still appreciate slightly. For the dollar, it will depreciate slightly compared with the beginning of the year. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is still at a reasonable and balanced level and will remain a two-way fluctuation trend.

Li Chao, an analyst at Zheshang Securities, believes that in July, the China stock market rekindled, the stock market capital inflow was strong, and the RMB exchange rate was strengthening. However, the uncertainty of Sino-US friction in the second half of the year is still the core of the dominant exchange rate trend, and it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate widely with high probability.

From the perspective of investment, although the recent trend of RMB is bright, it is not at a low point against the US dollar. A financial manager gave an example to the reporter, saying that in July last year, 10, 6.8856 yuan could be exchanged for 1 US dollar, and one year later, it took 6.9943 yuan to exchange for 1 US dollar. In other words, according to the quota of $50,000, the exchange cost is 5,435 yuan higher after one year.

"The purchase of foreign currency wealth management products involves the purchase and settlement of foreign exchange, and bears the cost of two bid-ask spreads. In addition, the scope of the exchange rate difference is getting smaller and smaller, and the profit margin of the exchange rate difference is limited. " The above financial manager said.

When reporters consult about purchasing foreign exchange at outlets, almost all conversations with financial managers will change from purchasing foreign exchange to "purchasing base"; "At present, it is better to choose good RMB wealth management products for foreign exchange. For example, many funds have performed well recently, using wealth management income to resist the risk of asset shrinkage caused by exchange rate depreciation. " The above financial manager said