(a) the reasons that affect the exchange rate changes:
1. The comparison between the two currencies has changed. 2. Changes in foreign exchange supply and demand.
(two) the main factors affecting the exchange rate changes:
1, balance of payments The balance of payments of a country directly determines the supply and demand of foreign countries. The income items of the balance of payments form the country's foreign exchange supply, and the expenditure items of the balance of payments form the country's foreign exchange demand. When there is a surplus in the balance of payments, the international reserves increase, which makes the foreign exchange supply exceed the demand; When the balance of payments is in deficit, foreign exchange reserves decrease, making foreign exchange supply less than demand. Changes in foreign exchange supply and demand directly affect the exchange rate.
2. Differences in inflation.
Other things being equal, if a country experiences inflation, the value represented by its unit currency will decrease, its internal value will depreciate, its external value will also depreciate, the foreign currency exchange rate will rise, and the local currency exchange rate will decline; On the other hand, if a country experiences deflation and prices fall, the value represented by its unit currency will appreciate internally and its external value will also rise, while the exchange rate of local currency will rise and the exchange rate of foreign currency will fall. On the other hand, inflation makes domestic prices rise and the cost of export commodities increase, which is not good for exports. At the same time, increase the profit margin of imported goods or be in a favorable price situation to stimulate the increase of imports. This will worsen the trade balance, increase the demand for foreign exchange, and lead to the fluctuation of local currency exchange rate and foreign currency exchange rate. If there is deflation, other things being equal, it will be beneficial to commodity export, lead to trade surplus and increase of foreign exchange supply, lead to the rise of local currency exchange rate and the fall of foreign currency exchange rate.
3. Interest rate is the transaction price of capital. After deducting the rate of price increase, the real interest rate determines the investment income of international investors. When the interest rates of different countries (mainly convertible currencies) are different, investors will inevitably convert low-interest currencies into high-interest currencies in pursuit of higher returns, which will affect the demand and supply of different currencies and then affect the exchange rate changes. Generally speaking, countries with high interest rates attract foreign capital inflows and increase foreign exchange supply, resulting in a decline in foreign exchange rates and an increase in local currency exchange rates; On the contrary, the domestic currency exchange rate fell. Interest rate is a waste of money for a country to adjust its economy. Interest rate rises, monetary policy tightens, unit currency value increases, and national currency exchange rate rises; On the contrary, the interest rate falls, the monetary policy is relaxed, the value of unit currency decreases, and the exchange rate of the country's currency declines. Therefore, when other factors remain unchanged, the exchange rate of high-interest currencies rises and the exchange rate of low-interest currencies falls.
4. International differences in economic growth rate.
The economic development of a country can be expressed by its economic growth rate. The rising economic growth rate shows the country's economic development, prosperity, strong economic strength and strong exports. Therefore, the country's currency is stable, foreign countries have confidence in the country's currency and are willing to use this currency in international transactions, and the exchange rate of this currency will generally rise; On the contrary, the exchange rate of this currency will fall. For example, traders in the foreign exchange market attach great importance to the economic growth rate regularly announced by the United States when predicting the exchange rate of the US dollar. But the situation in developing countries is different. If the economy develops rapidly, while the national income increases substantially and the import demand increases, if the domestic currency is not a freely convertible currency, the demand for foreign exchange increases, and under the influence of supply and demand, the foreign exchange rate rises and the local currency exchange rate falls.
5. Foreign exchange intervention by the central bank.
Central bank's foreign exchange intervention refers to the measures that a country's central bank or several central banks jointly participate in foreign exchange transactions in the foreign exchange market to influence the exchange rate of a country's currency or several major freely convertible currencies, which embodies that the exchange rate is a kind of managerial fluctuation. Generally, in order to ease exchange rate fluctuations, or limit exchange rate fluctuations within a prescribed range, or return overvalued currencies or undervalued currencies to normal levels, foreign exchange intervention will be implemented. The result of foreign exchange intervention is that the exchange rate changes to the target direction of the central bank.
6. A country's macroeconomic policy.
In order to increase employment, stabilize prices, promote economic growth and improve international payments, a country often adopts macroeconomic policies to regulate its domestic economy. These policies will have a certain impact on economic growth rate, price increase rate, interest rate and balance of payments, and will inevitably affect the change of exchange rate. For example, the implementation of different monetary policies will directly lead to changes in interest rates and price increases, and then affect trade balance and capital account, thus affecting exchange rate changes; The implementation of different fiscal policies will also affect price changes, and then affect trade balance and exchange rate. Since the implementation of the floating exchange rate system, the government has often adopted macroeconomic policies to regulate the domestic economy, which has also had a significant impact on exchange rate changes.
7. Market expectation psychology The influence of market expectation psychology on exchange rate is the most difficult to grasp among the factors affecting exchange rate changes.
It refers to the judgment made by foreign exchange traders on exchange rate changes, and foreign exchange transactions are carried out according to the judgment made, which causes exchange rate changes. In other words, whether people buy or sell a foreign exchange often depends on traders' expectations of the exchange rate trend, which leads to the rise or fall of the exchange rate of this currency. If traders think that the dollar exchange rate will rise and the yen exchange rate will fall, they will immediately buy dollars and sell yen, so that the demand for dollars exceeds the supply, and the supply of yen exceeds the demand, the dollar exchange rate will rise and the yen exchange rate will fall. or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium
8. Political turmoil and emergencies.
Political turmoil and emergencies also have an important impact on exchange rate changes. Changes in political situation will cause fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. When a country's political situation is unstable, foreign exchange traders will sell a lot of its currency to avoid losses, which will lead to the decline of its currency exchange rate. The emergence of some unexpected events will also affect exchange rate fluctuations, such as the Gulf War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, which will lead to large fluctuations in the exchange rates of major currencies in the foreign exchange market.
In short, when a country's economy is frustrated, depressed, depressed, the unemployment rate rises and the economic growth rate drops, the exchange rate of its own currency will weaken and fall, and the value of its currency will also weaken and fall. In recent years, the exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen frequently, and the value of the US dollar has depreciated due to the frustration of the US economy and the huge financial debt.
At the end of last year, the United States was hit by a $600 billion "fiscal cliff". Although the crisis has been temporarily alleviated, the economic growth rate in 20 12 is only 2.2%, which will remain at a low level in the future, and the value and exchange rate of the US dollar will further depreciate. In contrast, even though China was affected by the European debt crisis, it still maintained a growth rate of 7.8%, so there will be little room for RMB appreciation. Therefore, from the perspective of maintaining and increasing value, it is better to convert your funds into RMB deposits.