Judging from international experience, crude oil and gold have established a close linkage relationship and have become the main force leading other commodity futures. Judging from the recent trend of the external market, crude oil futures fell back after reaching the $100 mark, while gold suddenly emerged, leading platinum to reach new highs. On the 9th, Chicago corn also reached US$4.82/bushel, a new high since June 1996, and Malaysian palm oil futures rose to 3,190 ringgit/ton, also a new high since its listing. In addition, London copper futures also experienced a surge in the first few days of 2008, giving bulls the best New Year gift since 1980.
Due to the intensifying global bioenergy trend, crude oil futures have shown a strong indicative function for the futures prices of general agricultural products. Due to its inherent commodity attributes, gold futures has a strong leading role in metal futures varieties. A futures industry researcher told reporters that since my country currently does not have crude oil futures, and the interaction between internal and external markets has strengthened, it is expected that gold futures will dominate the market after they are listed, which will greatly promote the activity of futures varieties in my country.
More international
The reason why gold futures have attracted widespread attention from the investment community is mainly due to its financial attributes. In the context of highly integrated global economy, its international financial attributes are increasingly strengthened. Currently, gold is largely viewed as a hard currency in opposition to the U.S. dollar. Data shows that since the 1970s, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has dropped by about 90%. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar has stimulated a rise in gold prices, and expectations of interest rate cuts accompanying the depreciation of the U.S. dollar have made gold even more attractive. The decline of the US dollar has also directly led to the Middle East and Russia increasing their respective gold reserves since last year. The central banks of South Africa and Argentina have also publicly stated that they will recycle gold to increase reserves. It is expected that countries such as my country and Japan will gradually reduce US dollar assets and increase gold holdings. Judging from the 2006 statistical report of the International Monetary Fund, gold in the foreign exchange reserves of my country and Japan only accounts for 1% and 2%, which is far lower than the levels of several dozen percent in European countries and the United States. From this point of view, the demand for gold will increase significantly in the future. Since international gold reserves are an important means for countries to guard against financial risks, the prospects for gold reserves reflect the trend of international finance to a certain extent.
Accelerate integration into the world gold market
my country is one of the most important gold producers and consumers in the world. However, due to the absence of gold-related derivatives, the gold market system and price have formed The mechanism has never been sound. At present, the main reference for gold prices in China is the COMEX market in the United States, and its gold transactions can often dominate the direction of global gold prices. The units participating in COMEX gold trading are mainly large hedge funds and institutional investors. Their trading has generated great trading motivation for the gold market; and the huge trading volume has also attracted many speculators to join. The entire gold futures market Has high market liquidity. According to the analysis of relevant traders, an important reason for the recent surge in gold prices is that international funds have reallocated their asset portfolios and injected more funds into the commodity market.
In fact, as early as the 1930s in our country, the Shanghai Gold Exchange was one of the largest gold trading centers in the Far East, and gold speculation was an extremely popular investment method at that time. At present, in the global distribution of the world gold market, Asia is mainly represented by Hong Kong. The Hong Kong gold market mainly targets the gold transshipment in the mainland and Taiwan and the needs of the Southeast Asian jewelry industry. The listing of gold futures will enable Shanghai to more quickly integrate into the world's gold service system where division of labor is deepening.
Speculative futures trading is not terrible
Judging from the current market enthusiasm for gold futures, speculative trading is inevitable. Value-preserving futures trading is a transaction conducted by gold companies based on production and market supply and demand to avoid risks and reduce inventory and costs. It is conducive to protecting the interests of producers and operators and helping to maintain the normal progress of production. Speculative futures trading is a profit-making transaction made by investors by taking advantage of price fluctuations in the futures market, which reflects more of the financial attributes of gold investment. Since gold futures trading has great leverage and flexibility, although the Shanghai Futures Exchange has greatly improved the entry standards in the contract rules to stabilize the market and prevent risks, speculative trading will still be difficult to prohibit. From the perspective of the international market, speculative buying and selling sometimes have sufficient power to influence the market. From another perspective, they are also catalysts for market activity. Therefore, industry insiders believe that in the initial stage of the gold futures market, efforts should be made to coordinate the development of value preservation and speculation. Judging from the current situation, gold futures will be extremely active in the short term. It is not ruled out that speculative forces will gradually grow. What management needs to do is to strengthen supervision and provide reasonable guidance to prevent excessive fluctuations.