Let's first define the global currency, that is, many countries in the world are willing to use this currency as a trade settlement currency and an international reserve currency to issue their own currencies. The reason is that this currency has a wide range of international circulation, its value is relatively stable, and it is not easy to have large exchange rate fluctuations. Then, according to this definition, the current global currency is still ranked first in the United States, second in the euro, third in the pound, fourth in the renminbi and fifth in the yen. In the previous ranking, the Russian ruble has not yet entered the top 10.
Then let's look at how the market share of the whole world currency is distributed. The share of US dollars in global payments has been declining, from over 75% to 40.5 1%. Euro has been rising in recent years 10, accounting for 36.65% of the world; The pound has been shrinking, accounting for only 5.89%; Below is the RMB in China, and the proportion of international payment has jumped to 3-4%, which has surpassed the Japanese yen and is still rising.
The recognition of the global currency is related to the historical tradition of this country's currency. For example, although Britain is in decline, it still ranks third because of the huge scope of Commonwealth countries. Of course, what is more important is the proportion of this country in the world economy. The European Union merged most European countries, and the euro issued naturally became the second largest economic force in the world. China has become the second largest economy in the world, and its natural status is constantly rising.
So back to the Russian ruble, even if Russia achieves its global strategic goal after the final peaceful end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is unlikely that the Russian ruble will become the top five global currencies, and it may not become the top ten global currencies. The reason is:
1, Russia is the largest economy in the world. However, its total GDP in 202 1 year is only 1.77 trillion US dollars, which is only about 8% of the total GDP of the United States ranked 1. To become an international currency, the biggest support behind it is the country's economic ability.
2. Russia suffers from economic sanctions from the United States and the European Union, that is, sanctions from the US dollar and the euro. Under this circumstance, the development space of Russian ruble is limited and it is difficult to grow effectively.
It is true that Russia still has some allies and strategic partners, but it is still far from the cooperative relationship between the United States and the European Union.
Therefore, it is impossible for the Russian ruble to become a global currency alone, and the biggest possibility in its future is to unite with the RMB and jointly become the five major global currencies. The future international financial environment may be a triangle diversified world, that is, US dollar, Euro, RMB plus Russian ruble. Russia also has its own unique magic weapon, that is, its self-sufficiency is very strong, and some indispensable energy, minerals and food in the world can also help the Russian ruble appreciate rapidly in the future.